Huang Qifan: Accelerate the construction of a complete domestic demand system to form a new pattern of domestic and international double-cycle mutual promotion.
"A complete domestic demand system" is not a simple discussion of what domestic demand is, but a profound grasp of the background of the era of "building a complete domestic demand system". From the dimensions of what kind of foundation, what kind of conditions and what kind of mechanism are needed to form domestic demand, we should systematically understand the rich meaning of "domestic demand system.
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out when attending the joint meeting of economic committee members at the third session of the 13th CPPCC National Committee that facing the future, we should take meeting domestic demand as the starting point and foothold of development, speed up the construction of a complete domestic demand system, vigorously promote scientific and technological innovation and other aspects of innovation, and accelerate the promotion of strategic emerging industries such as digital economy, intelligent manufacturing, life and health, and new materials. Form more new growth points and growth poles, efforts will be made to open up all links of production, distribution, circulation and consumption, and gradually form a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other, so as to cultivate new advantages for China's participation in international cooperation and competition under the new situation. Under the new situation, this statement by the General Secretary is not a simple expedient measure for the interruption of the current industrial chain and supply chain due to the epidemic, but a strategy for a strong country at a critical stage of China's economic development towards high quality. Standing at the historical juncture of great changes unseen in a century, looking forward to the 14th Five-Year Plan, building a complete domestic demand system and accelerating the formation of a new pattern of domestic and international double-cycle mutual promotion should become the key content of our plan for the next journey of China's economy.
Comprehensively and Accurately Understand the Connotation of "Building a Complete Domestic Demand System"
"A complete domestic demand system" is not a simple discussion of what domestic demand is, but a profound grasp of the background of the era of "building a complete domestic demand system". From the dimensions of what kind of foundation, what kind of conditions and what kind of mechanism are needed to form domestic demand, we should systematically understand the rich meaning of "domestic demand system.
To (I) build a complete domestic demand system, we should focus on stabilizing market expectations and improving the enthusiasm of social capital investment.
Whether entrepreneurs are willing to expand reproduction and engage in innovative risk-taking activities is related to their expectations of the economy, whether market competition is fair, and whether property rights are effectively protected. There is a core indicator for judging the investment enthusiasm of private enterprises: the growth rate of net assets of all private enterprises. How much corporate profits are undistributed and retained as net assets each year, and how much social equity capital is injected into the real industry. If a local private enterprise is only increasing its total assets and not increasing its net assets every year, it means that liabilities are increasing and economic leverage is increasing, which may create a bubble. If the net assets of enterprises in the whole society are decreasing despite their profits, it means that more enterprises are losing money or transferring assets. At present, the majority of private enterprises are the most seriously affected by the epidemic, the most important thing is to take measures to stabilize the confidence of private entrepreneurs, to create a long-term positive expectations of China's economy. The key lies in the implementation of the six requirements put forward by the general secretary at the forum on private enterprises: first, to effectively reduce the tax burden of enterprises; second, to take measures to solve the problem of financing difficulties and high financing costs of private enterprises; third, to create a fair competitive environment, especially to encourage private enterprises to participate in the reform of state-owned enterprises; fourth, to improve the way of policy implementation and implement "strengthening property rights protection"; Fifth, we must build a new pro-Qing political-business relationship; sixth, we must protect the personal and property safety of entrepreneurs. With the implementation of these six articles, massive private capital will surely become active again.
(II) build a complete domestic demand system, we must take supply-side structural reform as the main line and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
According to economic theory, as the main body of domestic demand, there should be a reasonable proportional relationship between consumption and investment. This, in turn, depends on the effective convergence and dynamic matching between the supply side and the demand side, and on the efficiency of resource allocation. At present, in view of the trend of consumption upgrading, there are many shortcomings on our supply side: for example, in the factor market, there are still many obstacles to the reasonable flow of capital, land, labor and other factors; in the product market, logistics costs are still too high, and the rural market and e-commerce docking still has the problem of the last kilometer; in the service market, affected by the epidemic, catering, shopping malls, culture, tourism, housekeeping and other life services have been hit hard, reforms in education, health care and old-age care need to be deepened. In this regard, the central government put forward the idea of further promoting the reform of market-oriented allocation of factors and building a more perfect socialist market economic system, which is to improve the flexibility of matching between supply side and demand side and improve the efficiency of resource allocation by deepening the structural reform of supply side.
The (III) construction of a complete domestic demand system should be based on the expansion of employment and the continuous increase of residents' income.
Domestic demand is based on income and employment. Without employment and income, there is no domestic demand. There are 0.4 billion middle-income groups in China, and there are 0.6 billion low-and middle-income groups. At present, the impact of the new crown epidemic on the real economy has had a huge impact on people's livelihood and employment, the unemployment rate has risen, the income of some people has fallen, and the pressure on some poor people to return to poverty has increased. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to further improve the relevant policies to encourage and promote employment, and accelerate the formation of a new pattern of employment-driven employment; it is necessary to deepen the reform of the income distribution system, further reduce the personal income tax rate, and increase the primary distribution of labor remuneration in national income. In the next few years, the 0.4 billion middle-income group will double and the 0.6 billion low-income group will be halved. On this basis, a consumption structure led by the consumption of middle and high-income groups and based on the consumption of low-and middle-income groups will be formed and gradually improved.
(IV) build a complete domestic demand system, we must better play the role of the government in expanding domestic demand and maintaining the market.
The government can have two direct roles in expanding domestic demand: on the one hand, through government procurement to form current consumption demand; on the other hand, through government-supported public investment to form effective investment demand. At present, there is room for reform in both areas. We should take the establishment and improvement of the implementation mechanism of government procurement policy as the starting point, further play the role of government procurement in promoting and guiding the expansion of domestic demand, improve and optimize the efficiency and structure of public investment, invest more in public areas such as public health, urban and rural infrastructure, ecological environment protection, and major scientific and technological progress, and give full play to the multiplier effect of public investment on total demand. At the same time, it should also be noted that the government and the market are not a simple substitute or complementary relationship. A strong market requires a sound rule of law system, and a "promising government" can better maintain and promote an "efficient market". One of the goals of "giving better play to the role of the government" is to "let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources". "Promising government" and "efficient market" are the foundation of "harmonious society", and jointly provide legal support and full employment for "harmonious society.
(V) build a complete domestic demand system, we must form a new pattern of domestic and external demand compatible and complementary, domestic and international double cycle mutual promotion.
We can't just talk about domestic demand. Under the condition of open economy, the formation and effective supply of domestic demand also depends on the smooth flow and coordination of international industrial chain and supply chain. Against the backdrop of the new crown epidemic that has hit global trade and investment, China will continue to expand imports to meet the diversified and personalized needs of the country, and will continue to be deeply integrated into the global industrial chain supply chain with an open attitude. China is a large market with a 1.4 billion population and 0.4 billion middle-income groups. Now it has just skipped the middle-income trap and entered the development stage of US $10000 to US $30000. The potential economic vitality and room for development are still very large. In the next few years, our own internal cycle can drive the normal growth of China's economy by a few percent, and it can also stimulate neighboring countries and the international community by increasing imports, thereby driving the recovery of the world economy and stimulating the international economic cycle. Then form a new pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles
Deepening reform and accelerating the dredging of the domestic cycle
General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that the basic characteristics of China's full economic potential, strong resilience, large room for maneuver and many policy tools have not changed.
In the near future, the construction of a complete domestic demand system needs to unblock the blocking points that affect the domestic cycle as soon as possible, and promote the domestic cycle. First, we should firmly grasp innovation as an inexhaustible driving force for development, open up the whole process innovation chain supporting a strong scientific and technological country as soon as possible, and lead the internal cycle with innovation and entrepreneurship; second, we should seize new opportunities for a new round of scientific and technological and industrial revolution, promote the industrialization of digital technology and the digitization of traditional industries with new infrastructure, and empower the internal cycle with digital economy; third, we should innovate development ideas, Promote coordinated regional economic development and layout optimization, to foster new growth poles andPower sourceThe fourth is to implement the people-centered concept, take effective measures to adjust the income distribution pattern, and support the internal cycle with full employment and income increase of residents; the fifth is to break the policy obstruction of some industries and apply new policies and new applications New technology unblocks the internal cycle; sixth, it is necessary to deepen key basic system reforms, accelerate the construction of a high-standard market system, and improve the internal cycle with new results of market-oriented reforms.
(I) firmly grasp the inexhaustible driving force of innovation to drive development, as soon as possible to open up the whole process of innovation chain supporting science and technology power, to innovation and entrepreneurship "lead" the internal cycle.
In essence, innovation is to generate new demand by creating new supply. Once capital, resources, and human capital begin to concentrate on new supply, new demand will be created, the living space of old industries will be squeezed, and overcapacity can be eliminated. The entire economy will not only restore balance, but also have a big leap in energy level. This is the meaning of leading the inner cycle with innovation and entrepreneurship. However, there are still three shortcomings in my country's current scientific and technological innovation, which correspond to the three stages of innovation activities from nothing to industrialization. The key to doing a good job of innovation-driven is to classify the short boards that exist in these three stages.
The first stage is "0-1", which is the original innovation, basic innovation, and technological innovation out of nothing. This is created by high-level professionals in the laboratories of scientific research institutes, the engineering centers of colleges and universities, and the R & D centers of large enterprise groups. What is needed is national scientific research funds, enterprise scientific research funds, seed funds, and angel funds. investment. In this regard, we have a lot of shortcomings: although China's total social R & D investment has accounted for 2.2 of GDP, ranking second in the world, but the investment is relatively scattered; some basic research fields that need long-term investment (such as those that provide support for nuclear high-tech bases) lack sufficient investment, and the proportion of basic research investment has been hovering at 5% for a long time, which is far from 15% to 20% of the world's major innovative countries. It is suggested that we should concentrate superior resources to increase investment in basic research, increase the proportion of basic research investment in R & D expenditure from 5% to about 15% in the next five years, and continue to increase gradually in the following years.
The second stage of innovation is "1-100", which is the innovation of technological transformation and the innovation of transforming basic principles into production technology patents, including small and pilot tests, as well as the transformation of technological achievements into product development to form functional prototypes, and the establishment of production processes. This is the main business of various science and innovation centers, incubation bases, and accelerators. In this regard, it is necessary to mobilize all kinds of people with high IQ, high EQ, knowledge, willing to work hard and grounded, and understand the market to establish technology transfer institutions or serve as technology managers. As a bridge between science and technology and industry, its mission is to face the needs of enterprises and industries, organize and integrate scientific and technological forces to carry out in-depth research and development, and provide advanced technological solutions for the business community by transforming science into technology, using Chinese tests and improving technology. The famous Franhofer Institute in Germany does this job. There are many such institutions in Germany, which is the key to the advanced technological innovation in Germany. China lacks such institutions. A few days ago, the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "Overall Plan for Promoting the Construction of the National Technology Innovation Center (Interim)", which specifically stated that "the National Technology Innovation Center does not directly engage in market-oriented product production and sales, and does not compete with universities for academic fame or enterprises. Strive for the benefits of products. The center takes R & D as an industry and technology as a product, devotes itself to technological innovation at the source, pilot maturation of laboratory achievements, and appreciation of applied technology development, so as to provide technical support and scientific and technological services for small and medium-sized enterprises, incubate derivative scientific and technological enterprises, and lead and drive key industries and regions to achieve innovative development". This is actually cultivating China's Franhofer and making up for the short board of technology transfer and transformation. Next, it is necessary to further straighten out the incentive and restraint mechanism of the National Technology Innovation Center, implement the "fully implement the policy measures proposed in the" Plan ", such as incentives for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, incentives for equity dividends, and deferred taxation of income tax, and establish market-oriented performance evaluation and income Distribution incentive mechanism". Through the reform of these systems and mechanisms, a large number of professional institutions and technical managers engaged in the development and transfer of applied technology will be spawned.
The third stage of innovation is "100-1 million", which is the process of transforming the results into mass production capacity. For example, how can a prototype mobile phone become millions or tens of millions of units and eventually be sold around the world? It is necessary to have large-scale production bases, which are the result of investment in various development zones and large enterprises, and to form industrial clusters with international competitiveness through horizontal and vertical integration of the industrial chain. The focus of financial services at this stage is on tracking investments by various equity investment institutions, IPOs or acquisitions of large listed companies, and bank loans to raise debt financing. This requires the role of capital markets. In recent years, the construction of the basic key system of China's capital market has made remarkable progress, especially the implementation of the registration system of science and technology innovation board online for the majority of science and technology enterprises to open a fast and timely channel for listing and financing. We should play the exemplary role of the board and inject capital momentum into innovation. All technology industrialization projects that belong to the "stuck neck" should be given priority; those that can be advanced by production and reduce the external dependence of key core technologies should be given priority; those that are conducive to promoting internal circulation and enhancing industrial competitiveness should be given priority. We should strive to build the board into a capital market comparable to the NASDAQ in the United States, and activate the whole process innovation chain with the board as the leader, thus setting off the climax of large-scale scientific and technological innovation activities carried out by the whole society.
(II) seize new opportunities for a new round of technological and industrial revolution, promote the industrialization of digital technology and the digitization of traditional industries with new infrastructure, and "empower" the internal cycle with the digital economy.
As the technical support of the future civilization of human beings, such as digital economy, intelligent economy and life economy, the new infrastructure will not only bring trillions or even tens of trillions of investment demand, but also produce immeasurable superposition effect and multiplier effect through the industrialization of digital technology, the digitization of traditional industries and the scale of R & D and innovation, which can have a huge enabling effect on the internal circulation.
First, the new infrastructure will help promote the industrialization of digital technology and form a trillion-level self-contained digital platform. The information infrastructure involved in the new infrastructure, such as 5G network investment, big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, cloud computing, blockchain, etc., will itself bring a huge amount of investment. Among them, there will be 500-6 million 5G base stations, each with 500000 yuan, and the investment scale will reach several trillion yuan. For example, in the data processing centers under construction in various places, China will add 10 million servers in the next five years. The construction of these 10 million servers with computer rooms, power and other facilities will at least drive investment 1 trillion. Another example is the Internet of Things. It is expected that at least 30-5 billion terminals will be connected to the Internet in the next 5 years, forming the Internet of Everything, which will bring about an investment scale of 2-3 trillion. Artificial intelligence, block chains, etc. will also be trillions. It is expected that during 2020-2025, the output of these new infrastructure investments in China, as well as the output of services to society after completion, will exceed 10 trillion billion yuan.
Second, the new infrastructure is conducive to boosting the digitization of traditional industries and forming a subversive industrial Internet. The so-called industrial Internet refers to the use of digital technology to digitize and network all elements and links of the industry, promote the reorganization and reform of business processes and production methods, and then form a new industrial collaboration, resource allocation and value creation system. According to data from the China Institute of Information and Communications, the scale of industrial digitization in China was 24.9 trillion billion yuan in 2018, up 23.1 percent in nominal terms over the same period last year, accounting for 79.5 percent of the digital economy from 49 percent in 2005 to percent in 2018, and accounting for 27.6 percent of GDP from 7 percent in 2005. The contribution of industrial digitization to the growth of the digital economy is as high as 86.4 percent. This is just the beginning. With the deepening of the industrial Internet, the pull and fission effect on the economy will become increasingly prominent. At present, China's total industrial output value has reached 90 trillion billion. If the efficiency is increased by 10% due to the widespread application of the industrial Internet, it will produce a 9 trillion added value, which will form a market value of trillions after being catalyzed by the capital market. If China's consumer Internet market can only accommodate a few trillion-yuan enterprises at present, it is possible to accommodate dozens or hundreds of innovative enterprises of the same scale in the industrial Internet field. This is a huge blue ocean, the future of the Internet digital economy in the unicorn mainly produced in the industrial Internet system.
Third, the new infrastructure will help improve China's innovation system and help lead the fourth industrial revolution. Since modern times, mankind has experienced three industrial revolutions, the first is mechanization, the second is electrification, and the third is informatization. At present, the world is entering the fourth industrial revolution characterized by intelligence. During the first and second industrial revolutions, China was in a dormant state of isolation and the turmoil in the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China, all of which were missed. We caught up with the third industrial revolution. The founding of New China, especially the reform and opening up, allowed China to participate in this industrial revolution and become a beneficiary, but not a leader. Around 2010, the scientific and technological revolution showed new characteristics, and new breakthroughs appeared in some fields. Some people called it the "fourth industrial revolution". During this period, China's innovation capability has also taken a new leap, especially in the field of 5G, which has the basis to participate in or even lead the fourth industrial revolution. Against the backdrop of the deep impact of the new crown epidemic on the global economy, only science and technology, only innovation is the way out of the crisis and win the initiative. Speeding up the construction of new infrastructure, especially the layout of a number of innovation infrastructure represented by large scientific devices and large experimental platforms, supplemented by the deepening of the reform of the scientific and technological innovation system, will help to build a collaborative innovation system with deep integration of basic research, regional innovation, open innovation and frontier innovation, further stimulate the momentum of innovation and creation in the whole society, and help China lead the fourth industrial revolution.
(III) innovative development ideas, promote coordinated regional economic development and layout optimization, in order to cultivate new growth poles and power sources to "pull" the internal cycle
The formation of a large domestic cycle is inseparable from coordinated regional development. Under the new situation, on the one hand, it is necessary to further enhance the economic and population carrying capacity of central cities and urban agglomerations and other areas with economic development advantages through the construction of urban agglomeration metropolitan areas. On the other hand, it is necessary to jump out of the existing resource endowment constraints and use the system engineering of new technologies and new applications to find a breakthrough in the development of the western region, so as to promote the formation of a regional economic layout with complementary advantages and high-quality development. It is necessary to find opportunities and space for expanding domestic demand in these new growth poles and new power sources.
Focus on planning and building a good urban agglomeration metropolitan area. At present, the urbanization rate in my country has exceeded 60%, and various cities are moving from the development stage of each management to the development stage of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu-Chongqing The regional economic circle and other regions have started the development process of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, and the dividends will reach tens of trillions. The far-sighted, scientific and reasonable development planning is the premise of giving full play to the comprehensive benefits of urban agglomeration metropolitan area infrastructure, promoting mutual coordination and optimizing resource allocation, which is invisible "economics". The first is to rationally arrange the internal structure of urban agglomerations to form a new pattern of multiple nesting, division of labor and cooperation in super large cities, metropolitan areas, and urban agglomerations; the second is to follow the principle of "large connectivity, small distribution" and adopt "multi-center, group" The strategy of "group" is to rationally layout the functional clusters of central cities; the third is to focus on reducing the comprehensive cost of urban "people" and logistics "with a comprehensive transportation.
Further innovate work ideas, and promote the development of the western region with systems engineering of new technologies and new applications. Significant progress has been made in the development of the western region in the past two decades, but the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development is still prominent. The task of consolidating poverty alleviation is still arduous, and the development gap with the eastern region is still large. Facts have proved that it is not feasible to simply move the logic of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural refinement in the east to the west. The reason why the west is backward cannot be attributed to the backward concept of the west, insufficient knowledge, and ignorance of the operation methods of the east, but these methods of the east are not suitable for the resource endowment of the west. Under the new situation, it is necessary to adopt extraordinary ideas to plan the domestic cycle, and to adopt the strategy of modern high technology, engineering, large capital, enterprise and system promotion according to local conditions. For example, with a large amount of land and a small population in the west, it is not appropriate to adopt the labor-intensive model of the coastal area in the development of agriculture, but to develop a new model of high technology, engineering, and enterprise. It is recommended to learn from the experience of Israel and Singapore, and use greenhouse drip irrigation, three-dimensional planting and soilless or less soil cultivation techniques to develop new Gobi agriculture where conditions permit, and transform the vast Gobi Desert into a super-large-scale vegetable and food production base, and through the China-Europe train Transport to Europe or the central and eastern parts of the mainland. Assuming that 100000 square kilometers (0.15 billion mu, 10000 yuan per mu) of agriculture in the northwest region will produce a 1.5 trillion output value and form trillions of agricultural added value. At the same time, this is equivalent to an increase of 0.15 billion mu of arable land, which can be sold to the eastern region, which not only raises funds, but also increases the land use index for the construction of urban agglomeration metropolitan area, killing two birds with one stone. For another example, the western region is rich in hydropower and wind power resources. Due to the slowdown in electricity demand growth, limited peak shaving capacity, and poor delivery channels, the problems of water abandonment, wind abandonment, and light abandonment have frequently occurred in recent years. In this regard, first, through the development of pumped energy storage, chemical energy storage and other technologies, to balance the peak and valley difference of such energy, such energy into a stable and sustainable power resources. The second is to increase investment in UHV power grids, and strive to transmit the wealthy electricity in these areas through UHV power grids, and improve the ability to dissipate such renewable energy; the third is to deploy cloud computing data centers nearby in the west. "Counting East and West" provides low-cost cloud computing services for the east. In short, it is necessary to develop the rich clean energy in the western region through these new technical means and system engineering development ideas, and then transform it into the material support for the high-quality development of the western region and even the whole country.
(IV) implement the people-centered concept, take effective measures to adjust the income distribution pattern, and "support" the internal cycle with full employment and income increase of residents
In 2019, my country's per capita GDP has exceeded the US $10000 mark, which means that China is about to cross the middle-income trap, but it is still at a critical stage of "climbing over the hurdle", 0.4 billion middle-income groups and 0.6 billion low-and middle-income groups coexist. Under the impact of the new crown epidemic, the possibility of falling back into the middle-income trap remains if policies are not appropriate. Special measures should be taken to stimulate consumption, promote employment, strengthen security, further expand the middle-income group, narrow the low-and middle-income group, and accelerate the formation of a spindle-shaped income distribution pattern.
One is to reduce personal income tax. At present, my country's personal income tax implements a seven-level progressive income tax rate with a maximum of 45%, which is relatively high in the world. my country's annual personal income tax accounts for 7% of total tax revenue, which is much lower than 20% in developed countries and 15% in developing countries, and even lower than Russia. An important reason why it is so low is that under the high marginal tax rate, many private business owners do not receive wages in the enterprise, but keep their income in the enterprise and pay the enterprise income tax at the rate of 25%. Some high-income people either immigrate or move their enterprises to Hong Kong, Singapore and other places to avoid tax. According to international practice, the personal income tax rate should be less than or equal to the corporate income tax rate. Now the corporate income tax has been reduced to 25%, the top marginal tax rate of personal income tax should also be reduced from 45% to 25%, and the corresponding sub-tax rate should also be reduced. This will not only not reduce the total tax revenue, but will expand the tax base, stimulate consumption, form an increase in the total tax revenue, and the proportion of personal income tax in tax revenue will gradually increase.
The second is to stabilize the preferential income tax policies for small and micro enterprises. Small and micro enterprises, which account for 80% of the number, have absorbed 70% of the employment. In 2018, the relevant state departments issued a three-year preferential income tax policy for small and micro enterprises [Note: In July 2018, in order to further support the development of small and low-profit enterprises, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the ''Regarding Further Expansion of Small and Low-profit Enterprises "Notice on the Scope of Preferential Income Tax Policies" (Caishui [2018] No. 77). Subsequently, in response to the issue of how to collect and manage the income tax incentives for small and micro enterprises after the expansion of income tax incentives, the State Administration of Taxation issued the ''Announcement on the Implementation of the Further Expansion of the Scope of Income Tax Preferential Policies for Small and Low Profit Enterprises'' (State Administration of Taxation Announcement 2018 No. 40).]: For small profit-making enterprises whose annual taxable income is less than 1 million yuan (including 1 million yuan), their income shall be included in the taxable income at a reduced rate of 50%, and the enterprise income tax shall be paid at a tax rate of 20%; The preferential period is from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. This policy reduces the actual tax burden of small and micro enterprises to 10%, which can be said to be the most preferential policy in the world. But why do people still put forward various preferential policy requirements without knowing it? In addition to the lack of publicity by the relevant departments, it is also related to the fact that the policy is not legislation, but only a short-term policy and the lack of long-term expectations. Taking into account the strategic needs based on the domestic cycle, it is recommended that this short-term temporary policy be transformed into a long-term basic system and upgraded to law to stabilize social expectations. Once small and micro enterprises slow down, they will surely drive more jobs with new jobs, and then promote the development of the economy in a good circular direction.
The third is to increase farmers' property income. 0.6 billion low-income people are mainly distributed in rural areas. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, the income of urban residents has been greatly improved, a large part of which is reflected in the increase in the proportion of property income. However, compared with urban residents, in addition to income from farming and working, the proportion of property income in total income has always remained at 3%. This is also one of the main reasons for the widening income gap between urban and rural residents in recent years. In this regard, the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee determined the reform ideas of "adhering to the collective ownership of rural land", "safeguarding farmers' land contractual management rights in accordance with the law" and "giving farmers more property rights". In particular, it is proposed to "protect the rights of members of farmers' collective economic organizations, actively develop farmers' share cooperation, and give farmers the rights of possession, income, paid withdrawal, mortgage, guarantee and inheritance of collective assets. Protect the usufructuary rights of farmers' homesteads, reform and improve the rural homestead system, select a number of pilot projects, prudently and steadily promote the mortgage, guarantee, and transfer of farmers' housing property rights, and explore channels for farmers to increase their property income." Accelerating the implementation of these major reform measures is of great significance for narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas.
Four is to increase social spending. In 2019, the per capita consumption expenditure of the national residents was 21559 yuan. Among them, housing, health care, education, culture and entertainment accounted for 43.9 percent of per capita consumption expenditure, an increase of 3.7 percentage points over 2015, restricting the improvement of residents' consumption level. To this end, the government should increase fiscal expenditures on housing, education and medical care in exchange for residents to reduce expenditures in these areas and use the savings for other consumption. For example, we can increase the supply of affordable housing in big cities, increase the proportion of public rental housing in urban housing, and stabilize the housing price (rent) of commercial housing; incorporate preschool education into the scope of public services as soon as possible, and expand compulsory education to the Senior high school stage; increase Efforts are made to encourage students to apply for medical and health majors, reduce tuition fees, and substantially increase the supply of medical staff to cope with the shortage of medical services caused by the chronic aging in China.
(V) break the policy obstruction in some industries, promote a high level of balance between supply and demand, and "unblock" the internal cycle with new policies and new applications of new technologies.
In the past few years, the continuous supply-side structural reform has made significant progress in resolving excess capacity in some industries, and the level and quality of the national economic cycle have been significantly improved. Under the impact of the epidemic, some traditional industries may appear new capacity "excess", in this regard, we can no longer impose the means of forced capacity, but through the appropriate adjustment of policies, to create new demand to release these "excess" capacity. After all, "excess capacity" is always relative and is subject to specific technical and institutional environments. As the environment changes, supply and demand conditions will naturally change.
For example, the automotive industry. In 2019, China's auto production and sales completed 25.721 million and 25.769 million vehicles respectively, although production and sales continued to rank first in the world, but the year-on-year decline of 7.5 and 8.2, there are signs of consumption contraction. According to data from the World Bank, in 2019, the number of cars per 1,000 people will be 837 in the United States, 589 in Germany, 591 in Japan, and even 433 in some Asian countries such as Malaysia, while only 173 in China. It should be said that the market prospect is very broad. However, an important reason for the sluggish automobile consumption is that we have many policies to restrict automobile consumption. In some places,Common peopleClearly there is a strong demand for cars, but they cannot buy cars because of the number limit and license limit policies. If car consumption is liberalized, China can reach 50% of the level of developed countries. On the one hand, it can meet market consumption demand, and on the other hand, it can force cities to transform transportation facilities and expand three-dimensional parking garages. In fact, there is overcapacity in some urban office buildings, while building-type three-dimensional parking garages are almost blank. The transformation of some surplus office buildings into physical parking garages not only stimulates consumption, but also balances the market.
Another example is the steel industry. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2019, the national pig iron, crude steel and steel production capacity of 0.809 billion tons, 0.996 billion tons and 1.205 billion tons, respectively, an increase of 5.3 percent, 8.3 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively, production capacity growth faster, there are signs of "excess" again. It is noted that on the production side, after the last round of "de capacity", the polluting, technologically backward and small-scale production capacity has been removed, and the existing production capacity is relatively advanced in the world. On the consumer side, although the steel demand from the construction industry has accounted for more than 40%, the potential demand space is still large: First, the current steel structure output in my country only accounts for about 7-8% of my country's steel output, while Europe and the United States and other countries (Regions) this proportion is about 40%. Increasing the proportion of steel structures in various buildings will significantly expand steel demand. Second, the current real estate steel consumption in my country is 40-50kg per square meter, while in developed countries it has reached 150kg/square meter; my country builds more than one billion square meters of houses every year. If the proportion of steel used in houses can be appropriately increased in the construction standards, Even promote the use of steel structures, so that the construction steel used per square meter reaches 150kg, and more than 0.1 billion tons of steel can be used a year, which will help to consume these advanced "excess" excess. Third, the general life of reinforced concrete houses is 30 years, and the life of steel structure houses can be as long as 70-100 years. Improving the standard of steel for construction and promoting the use of steel structure can greatly improve the quality of houses, prolong the life of houses, form a circular economy of scrap steel making, and also contribute to earthquake resistance and disaster reduction.
Another example is the energy and chemical industry. In 2019, China imported 0.5 billion tons of crude oil, with a foreign dependence of 70.8 percent, and imported 96.6 million tons of natural gas, with a foreign dependence of 43 percent. The degree of external dependence will continue to rise in the next few years. Such a high degree of external dependence has always been a major hidden danger to national energy security. Most of these imported crude oil and natural gas are used to produce various chemical products [Note: The reason why the world uses crude oil and natural gas as chemical raw materials is technically path dependent. European and American capital has been deeply rooted in this technical route for many years, and long-term capital investment and technological progress have reduced the comprehensive cost of petrochemicals. This technical route has also been brought to the world by European and American capital. After adopting this technical route, the world has a deep dependence on crude oil and natural gas. The petrodollar we see is the embodiment of this "resource-technology-capital-industry-trade"-led international cycle. China had to adopt this technological route for quite a long time in the past.]. However, China has the most abundant coal reserves in the world. The annual coal production capacity is 5 billion tons, and the actual output is about 4 billion tons, which seems to be "surplus. In view of the fact that coal is a natural chemical raw material, it is suggested that the new refining crude oil in the future should be replaced by coal, and coal chemical industry, coal to oil and coal to gas should be developed instead of simply generating electricity (future electricity will also come mainly from renewable energy). In this regard, China's Shenhua Group and other large enterprises already have this ability. If 8-1 billion tons of coal chemical raw materials are added, 2-0.25 billion tons of oil imports can be reduced every year, which can not only eliminate the "excess" coal production capacity, but also reduce the dependence on foreign oil and natural gas. At present, the technical route of coal chemical industry is nothing more than the constraints of cost and clean utilization technology, which can be gradually solved through scientific and technological innovation and new technology application. It is recommended to guide powerful central enterprises and private enterprises in related fields to enter this field, use continuous capital investment to develop coal clean utilization technology, and use technological progress and management innovation to reduce the comprehensive cost of this technical route and make it more competitive.
(VI) should deepen the reform of key basic systems, speed up the construction of a high-standard market system, and "improve" the internal circulation with the new achievements of market-oriented reform.
Deepen the reform of the market-oriented allocation of factors. On March 30 this year, the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Building a More Perfect System and Mechanism for Market-oriented Allocation of Factors" was released. This blockbuster document puts forward many reforms of making money, gathering money and optimizing resource allocation, which are not only targeted and forward-looking, but also of strong strategic significance. For example, measures such as "exploring the establishment of a national cross-regional trading mechanism for construction land and supplementary arable land indicators", "liberalizing and relaxing the restrictions on urban settlement except for individual mega-cities, and piloting the household registration system with habitual residence" are conducive to enhancing factor mobility and guiding the synergy of various factors to gather in advanced productive forces. On the other hand, in the current economic growth and fiscal revenue due to the epidemic and the background of a sharp setback, this kind of no or less money but can bring huge dividends of reform is not only in line with economic and social reality, but also conducive to the resumption of work and production, stimulate the vitality of enterprises, restart the economic cycle.
Accelerate the formation of state-owned capital operating companies. In 2018, the total state-owned capital equity of Chinese enterprises was 58.7 trillion billion yuan, and 99% of the equity capital was the capital of industrial and commercial capital investment companies. It is suggested to speed up the implementation of the relevant requirements of "establishing state-owned capital investment and operation companies" put forward by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, transfer equity assets worth about 10 trillion from the total plate of existing industrial state-owned capital investment companies to establish several state-owned capital operation companies, so that these operation companies can focus on alternative investment and equity investment like Singapore Temasek or American Buffett's investment companies or private equity funds, according to the benefits of the invested enterprises to decide to advance and retreat, and then combined with the capital market, the state-owned capital will be revitalized. If this 10 trillion of investment can achieve an annual return of 10%, there will be about 1 trillion per year, which can provide a sustained and stable source of funds for national security, public services and other areas that need state-owned capital to enter, without increasing the financial burden. The 10 trillion capital withdrawn from the industrial and commercial industries can free up more than 20 trillion industrial, commercial, and industrial market space for the private economy, and further encourage and promote the development of the private economy, thereby opening up the capital cycle between the state-owned economy and the private economy, which is conducive to promoting the reform of mixed ownership. Activate the overall economic situation.
Promote the reform of the logistics and transportation system. All kinds of logistics costs in China account for 15% of GDP, while the United States only accounts for 7% of GDP, Europe and Japan are 6% ~ 7%, and even developing countries in Southeast Asia are only about 10%. It is a social consensus that logistics costs are on the high side. One of the important reasons is the low proportion of rail traffic, which currently accounts for only 9.5 per cent of total traffic, while roads and waterways account for 74.3 per cent and 16.2 per cent, respectively (the proportion of rail traffic in the United States is 20 per cent). Generally speaking, the cost of railway transportation is 1/3 of the cost of expressways. If the proportion of railway transportation volume is increased to 15%-20%, logistics costs will be effectively saved. To this end, it is recommended to increase the proportion of railway freight volume in various modes of transportation. First, extend the railway line to various development zones, factories and mining enterprises as soon as possible to open up the "last mile" of railway transportation; second, with the high-speed rail With the gradual extension of the line, the original general express can be adjusted to a dedicated freight line to increase the utilization rate; the third is to deepen reforms in some transportation hubs and improve the efficiency of multimodal transportation; the fourth is to promote the application of a new generation of information technology in transportation, and build a multi-flow integration of people, logistics and information flow, efficient and smooth intelligent transportation.
Promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade supervision. As the most rapidly developing trade mode in the Internet era, cross-border e-commerce will become the mainstream of international trade in the future. In recent years, although the average annual growth rate of China's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume has exceeded 50%, it accounts for less than 2% of the total import and export trade. Part of the reason for this stems from the fragmentation of the domestic and foreign trade regulatory regime. For example, cross-border e-commerce does retail and cannot do wholesale trade. For another example, retailers are divided into four types: bonded import, bonded export, general import, and general export. They can only choose one of them to operate, and cannot do retail in four. There are no such restrictions on domestic trade. This kind of cross-border e-commerce supervision system has seriously restricted the business ability of enterprises. From an international perspective, the international giant Amazon is engaged in cross-border e-commerce, which is not divided into domestic and international, import and export, wholesale and retail, all-round integration, which is worthy of our reference. Recently, the General Administration of Customs has allowed B2B to be piloted in the cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test area. It is suggested to further break the boundary between retail and trade wholesale, allow all cross-border e-commerce enterprises to do 2B and 2C, integrate retail and import and export trade, allow enterprises to freely choose different formats such as retail or wholesale according to their own needs, and create conditions for them to carry out international supply chain integration.
以高水平开放助推国际经济大循环
十八大以来，中国对外开放格局呈现出五个新的特征：一是从引进外资为主，转变为引进外资和对外投资并重。二是从扩大出口为主，转变为鼓励出口和增加进口并重。三是从沿海地区开放为主，转变为沿海沿边内陆协同开放、整体开放。四是从关贸总协定和WTO框架下的货物贸易为主，转变为货物贸易和服务贸易共同发展。五是从融入和适应全球经济治理体系为主，转变为积极参与甚至引领国际投资和贸易规则的制定修订。对外开放格局的这五个转变是中国助推国际经济外循环的基础。当前，在全球贸易保护主义、单边主义抬头和疫情冲击全球经济大背景下，形势越困难，就越是要保持开放、扩大开放，在变局中开新局。新形势下，要按照习近平总书记在第一届进博会上的讲话精神要求，重点抓好“激发进口潜力”“持续放宽市场准入”“营造国际一流营商环境”“打造对外开放新高地”“推动多边双边合作深入发展”这五件大事，以高水平开放助推国内国际双循环。
（一）稳步降低关税水平，适度扩大进口，提升我国在世界经济舞台上的话语权
习近平总书记指出，中国主动扩大进口，不是权宜之计，而是面向世界、面向未来、促进共同发展的长远考量。事实上，当今世界，出口大国未必是经济强国，因为出口可能大量是劳动密集型产品、来料初加工产品。而进口大国一定是经济强国，进口所需的外汇可能来自于技术和服务等贸易顺差，货币纳入SDR成为世界货币也可与各国直接结算。建议在未来3-5年内，将关税总水平由现在的7.5%逐步降到5%左右，实现与发达经济体大致持平。主动降低关税水平，一是可以直接降低消费者进口成本，有利于产业转型升级，增加群众消费福利；二是有利于增加进口，促进实现进出口平衡，为实现国际收支平衡创造条件；三是有利于在新一轮经贸谈判中占据主动，进口规模大了，我国在世界经济舞台的话语权自然也大了。
（二）进一步开放投资领域，持续放宽服务业市场准入，加快引资补链扩链强链
当前，全球流动性泛滥已成定局。从全球来看，中国市场目前疫情控制得最好，也是投资风险最小的地方。只要我们进一步扩大开放，这些资金背后的产业资本必纷至沓来，不仅部分外资转移产业的计划将被打消，还将帮中国迅速完成“补链”“扩链”“强链”。近日国务院常务会议通过了2020年版外商投资负面清单，其中全国外商投资准入负面清单由40条减至33条，自贸试验区外商投资准入负面清单由37条减至30条。特别是金融领域取消了证券公司、证券投资基金管理公司、期货公司、寿险公司外资股比限制；制造业领域放开商用车制造外资股比限制；农业领域将小麦新品种选育和种子生产须由中方控股放宽为中方股比不低于34%。这些都为我们抓住机遇引资补链创造了条件。建议进一步扩大物流、研发设计、数字经济等服务业的开放，吸引更多全球产业链相关企业落户中国、加入区域产业链集群，进而打造空间上高度集聚、上下游紧密协同、供应链集约高效、规模达万亿级的战略新兴产业链集群。一旦形成了这样的产业链集群，在国外需求依旧疲软的时候可以通过努力营造以当地需求、国内需求为拉动的产业小循环，保证产业链集群的健康发展；当国外市场复苏的时候，进一步加强国际合作，扩大产业集群规模和发展质量，通过加强区域产业链合作带动全球产业链的大循环。
（三）按照国际化法制化便利化的要求，加快打造国际一流营商环境
近几年，根据世界银行的标准，中国在营商环境改善方面取得了显著进步。这与我们持续不断深化放管服和其他有关方面改革有关。在新形势下，要实现国内国际双循环互相促进，仍然离不开营商环境的国际化法制化便利化，甚至这方面要求更加迫切了。这就要在现有基础上继续深化改革，将营商环境建设继续推向深入。众所周知，国际高水平经贸规则中对营商环境有八个方面的要求，涉及准入前国民待遇、负面清单管理、知识产权保护、生态环境保护、劳工权益、竞争中性、服务业开放、数字贸易等八个方面内容。营商环境国际化，主要是在这八个方面与国际接轨，实现营商环境趋同化。所谓营商环境法制化，就是要将这些营商环境的具体要求上升为法律、转化为可问责的制度规则。所谓营商环境便利化，就是要最大限度为各类要素跨境自由流动提供便利，实现成本最小化。
（四）以建设自贸区和中国特色自由贸易港为依托，建设开放新高地
现在我国已形成了以18个自贸区和1个自由贸易港为高地的对外开放新格局。无论是自贸区也好，自贸港也好，一个重要使命就是要围绕贸易自由、投资自由、资金流动自由、运输自由、人员停居留和就业自由、数据流动自由等方面进行先行先试，建设开放新高地，拓展中国经济对外开放的高度、深度和广度。所谓高度，就是要以自贸区（港）为依托，培育与国际市场相通的制造业、服务业在内的产业实力和能力，打造具有国际影响力的先进制造业集群、战略新兴产业基地、要素和大宗商品交易配置平台和国际贸易航运枢纽等。所谓深度，就是要围绕率先建成国际一流营商环境，大幅降低外资在金融、保险、物流、研发设计、教育卫生、数字经济等领域的准入门槛，建立准入前国民待遇和负面清单制度，建立健全竞争性市场体制。所谓广度，就是将改革开放和产业升级的措施形成可复制、可推广的成果。
（五）抓住机遇加快FTA谈判，积极参与国际经贸规则谈判和制定
近日，修订后的美加墨协定正式生效，其中的毒丸条款就是针对中国而来的，是其试图削弱中国在全球贸易和产业供应链地位的重要一步。接下来美国大概率会延续在推动协定时的主要操作手法，与欧盟、英国、日本等达成类似的FTA协议。这实际上对我形成了新的围追堵截。对此，我们应抓住当前中国正恢复欣欣向荣，而欧美陷于危机的机遇，加快中日韩、RECP、中欧BIT谈判、中英BIT谈判，适时启动加入CPTPP谈判。要通过参与这类经贸规则谈判，一方面努力打破美国在世界范围内对我“去中国化”的图谋，另一方面，要将这些国家和地区的科技、产业、资本和人才通过FTA规则吸引到中国来，促进中国产业链供应链价值链更加完整、更具韧性、更有竞争力，加深这些国家和地区对我经济的联系，牢牢扭抱在一起。
因为疫情，世界经济陷入衰退。对此，正确的做法应该是继续高举全球化大旗，更合理的发挥市场对资源的优化配置作用，更好地形成全球各地、各国各企业之间的分工配置，维护国际经济良性大循环。那种以邻为壑搞脱钩、推卸责任拼命甩锅、搞单边主义和逆全球化的做法是在开历史的倒车，注定不会成功。我们要以高水平开放反制逆全球化、以改善营商环境反制“撤资论”、以超大市场的吸引力反制“脱钩论”，加快形成于我有利的国际经济大循环。我们坚信，在以习近平总书记为核心的党中央坚强领导下，中国正在塑造的以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新格局必将推动我国开放型经济向更高质量发展，推动全球化朝着更深领域演进。
(本文作者介绍：重庆市原市长、第十二届全国人大财经委副主任委员)
消息来源：中国经济周刊
