This year's Spring Festival is the most critical moment in the three years of fighting against the epidemic. _ Enterprise Management _ Industry News

The wind direction has completely changed recently.

The topic of the epidemic in the past two days has set a three-year record except for the early stage of the epidemic.

In the past three years, we have been fighting against the virus for three years.

Now, we have finally reached a turning point.

We are smoothly moving towards the transition period.

Following the strong signals from the country, anti epidemic policies in various regions are gradually being relaxed.

Starting from December 5th, public transportation in Beijing will no longer require nucleic acid testing certificates.

Zhengzhou, local license plates can be used directly for entry and exit.

Hangzhou, train stations no longer check nucleic acid certificates.

Chongqing no longer checks nucleic acid certificates for public transportation.

Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu no longer require nucleic acid test certificates for entering and leaving public places.

In some areas, it has changed from "daily nucleic acid testing" to "non essential nucleic acid testing", and a series of certificates are required for nucleic acid testing.

Multiple regions have started implementing home quarantine and cross flower isolation for positive cases.

What is a cross flower?

It refers to the upper and lower floors as well as the neighbors on the same floor of the confirmed case.

Not only will the positive result not be taken away, but the unit buildings will no longer be sealed off.

This is just the beginning.

In the next month, this relaxation will gradually radiate throughout the country.

During this transition period, two different voices emerged.

A desire to coexist.

In the past three years, these people have been bruised and bruised by various reasonable or unreasonable epidemic prevention policies, and they can no longer hold on.

The other insists on zeroing.

This group of people feel safe only under the embankment of epidemic prevention built by the state at any cost.

It is normal to have different voices, but the point of view should be based on facts.

So far, only two viruses have been completely eliminated in human history: smallpox and rinderpest.

Other viruses developed to the end, have achieved coexistence with humans.

Although modern medicine has drugs that can control and alleviate the virus, it cannot completely eliminate it.

WHO says humans may never be able to eliminate the new coronavirus.

Coexistence is the way to go sooner or later.

Three years ago, Europe and the United States have announced lying flat.

On the basis of Europe and the United States, we have persisted for three more years and have survived to this day.

The new crown is already at the end of its tether.

Now is the right time for the country to adjust the direction of epidemic prevention.

Everyone must understand: once the policy is adjusted, it will be irreversible, and we will never go back to the era of strict defense.

The next period of time will be a smooth transition period.

And this year's Spring Festival will usher in the most critical moment in the three years of fighting the epidemic.

And listen to me analyze one by one.

Each virus has its transmission coefficient value: R0 value.

At the beginning of the Wuhan epidemic, the original strain of the new crown virus was 2.5-3, which means that one new crown virus can infect 2.5-3 people.

This transmission value is actually very high, because the transmission value of most viruses is only about 1.

But from the evolutionary point of view of the virus, the smart new crown, the primary goal is to spread themselves, crazy increase their contagion.

However, the virulence of the original strain of the new crown was alarming, and the mortality rate was high at the time.

The higher the mortality rate, the fewer the number of hosts, and the more difficult it will be for the virus to spread.

So, in order to increase their contagion, the new crown would have to weaken their pathogenicity.

When it later evolved into a delta, the spread value went to 5.

By the time we got to Omicjon, the spread value evolved to 9.5.

The current outbreak in Guangzhou is Omicjong BA. The 5.2 variant strain, whose transmission value has reached 18.6, is five times that of the original strain of the new crown.

Correspondingly, while the spread value is rising wildly, the toxicity is also declining linearly.

Therefore, we can see that Guangzhou has only 4 severe cases under the condition of hundreds of thousands of infected people in this round.

In the current round of the epidemic in Beijing, Omicjong has evolved into BA. 5 third generation BF. 7, not only the transmission force is stronger, but also the concealment is stronger.

The implication is that more is asymptomatic.

Since its birth, Omicjon has been updating and mutating almost every month.

Each mutation will speed up the spread and weaken the virulence of the virus.

Many people see less toxicity, a large number of infected people are asymptomatic, and the number of severe cases is very small. It is actually unscientific to compare the new crown with the flu.

Ignoring the spread of the new crown.

The spread value of influenza is only 1-2. At present, the spread value of Omicjon variant is nearly 20 times that of influenza, and it is still changing and rising.

Once you choose to coexist with the virus, it won't be long before everyone will be infected, no matter what means you use or where you are, you can't escape.

Under the huge base of 1.4 billion people, medical resources will definitely suffer.

If the unfortunate infection is severe, the ability to allocate medical resources is directly related to life and death.

That's why the state has been dragging on as long as it can.

Because every additional month of delay, the toxicity of the virus will weaken a little and a large number of people will die less.

In the face of the virus whose spread has increased exponentially, after entering November, there are more and more cities under domestic control, and the total population under control is unprecedented, and the price paid is becoming more and more unbearable.

I believe that every citizen can deeply feel the depression caused by the impact of the epidemic.

Of course, the state knows it too.

Now, we have reached the critical point of having to change.

In order for the people to get a respite, in order for enterprises to get out of the predicament, the state proposed that "the epidemic should be prevented, the economy should be stable, development should be safe".

With the strong signal of the new situation and new tasks, with the support of the 20 articles, we will smoothly enter the transition period.

But this transition period may be delayed until the Spring Festival at most.

中国春节带来的人口流动，是举世无双的。

一年一度数亿人的返乡潮，走亲访友串门交际的热闹场面，将会是传播力惊人的变异毒株最兴奋的时刻。

春节过后，医疗资源将会面临三年来的最大压力。

新局面会完全打开。

所以，口罩和疫苗，将会成为我们每个人保护自己的最后武器。

戴上口罩，能有90%的概率将病毒挡在体外。

注射疫苗，能在不幸成为10%中标者后，将病毒的毒性降低90%。

挺过这一波，后面的路才会更好走。

正印证了那句话：“每个人都是自己健康的第一责任人”。

你要明白，这三年来，国家顶着压力拖到今天，是一直在跟病毒抢时间。