Stable economic operation with progress, enhanced industrial development resilience - Overview of the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2022
On February 15, 2023, the China Machinery Industry Federation held an information conference on the economic operation of the machinery industry for the whole year of 2022 in Beijing. The Executive Vice President of China Machinery Industry Federation, Luo Junjie, has released information on the economic operation of the machinery industry for the whole year of 2022. The information release draft is now published below for your reference and learning.
Stable economic operation with progress, enhanced resilience of industrial development
——Overview of the Economic Operation of the Machinery Industry in 2022
In the face of the turbulent international environment and complex external situation in 2022, the machinery industry will conscientiously implement the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement the requirements of preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and ensuring safe development, maintain stable industry operation, continuously optimize industrial structure, and continuously enhance development resilience. The main economic indicators for the whole year will be within a reasonable range, playing a positive role in stabilizing the economy, boosting the industrial economy, and improving the quality of foreign trade. Looking ahead to 2023, the domestic demand market for the machinery industry will gradually improve and the development environment will be optimized, but the challenges in the external demand market will intensify. The entire industry should have firm confidence, work hard, and strive to promote the stable operation of the industry's economy and continuously improve the quality of development.
1、 Economic Performance of the Machinery Industry in 2022
Although the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2022 has experienced ups and downs, the overall trend is improving. The first quarter started well; In the second quarter, due to the impact of local epidemics and the resulting transportation and logistics disruptions, the downward pressure suddenly increased, and the entire industry quickly rebounded, with major indicators achieving a short-term transition from negative to positive; Stable and improving in the third quarter; Due to the fluctuation of the epidemic and the decline of the external demand market, the growth rate slowed down in the fourth quarter. The main economic indicators of the machinery industry achieved steady growth throughout the year.
（1） Characteristics of Industry Economic Operation
1. The scale of the industry continues to expand
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of 2022, there were 111000 enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry, an increase of 12000 from the previous year, accounting for 24.7% of the total number of industrial enterprises above designated size in China, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous year; The total assets amounted to 32.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, accounting for 20.8% of the total industrial assets in the country, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year.
2. The growth rate of added value is higher than that of the national industrial sector
In 2022, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 4% year-on-year, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the national industrial added value growth rate and 1 percentage point higher than the manufacturing added value growth rate. Among the five major categories of the national economy mainly involved in the machinery industry, four saw an increase in added value. Among them, the added value of specialized equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment, and instrument manufacturing increased by 3.6%, 6.3%, 11.9%, and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, while the added value of general equipment manufacturing decreased by 1.2% year-on-year.
3. Product production and sales situation differentiation
The mechanical industry mainly monitors 30 types of products, with 13 products showing a year-on-year increase in cumulative production throughout the year, accounting for 43.3%; There are 17 products with decreased production, accounting for 56.7%. The production and sales situation of the main products during the year has differentiated, and the number of products that have achieved growth has fluctuated around half.
The main characteristics of product production and sales are: firstly, effectively responding to shocks, achieving growth in automobile production and sales, with annual production and sales of 27.021 million and 26.864 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1%, and ranking first in the world in production and sales for 14 consecutive years; Secondly, the construction of the energy sector is accelerating, driving the rapid growth of power generation equipment, transmission and transformation equipment, and energy storage related products. The output of generator sets has increased by 17.3%, and the output of solar cells has increased by 47.8%; Thirdly, the growth rate of equipment production serving the raw material industry has slowed down compared to the previous year, with metal smelting equipment and cement specialized equipment production increasing by 0.7% and 6.7% respectively; Fourthly, the output of processing and manufacturing equipment has decreased, with metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools decreasing by 13.1% and 15.7% respectively; The fifth reason is that the production of products with high production and sales growth in the early stage has declined, with the production of metal containers, packaging specialized equipment, and excavators decreasing by 36.9%, 17%, and 21.7% respectively.
4. Stable growth in performance indicators
Technological progress and product structure upgrading effectively drive industry efficiency growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the machinery industry achieved a cumulative operating revenue of 28.9 trillion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; The total profit reached 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Compared with the national industry, the growth rate of operating revenue and total profit in the machinery industry is 3.7 and 16.1 percentage points higher, respectively. The proportion of industrial operating income and total profit in the country is 21% and 21.6% respectively; Drive a 1.9 percentage point increase in national industrial revenue and a 2.2 percentage point increase in total profits.
5. Uneven operation by industry
Among the 14 sub sectors of the machinery industry, 8 sub sectors saw a year-on-year increase in operating income and total profit, while 6 sub sectors experienced a decline. Among them, the electrical industry, driven by the manufacturing of energy storage equipment and photovoltaic equipment, saw a growth of 26.4% in operating revenue and 37.6% in total profit; The machine tool industry, driven by the manufacturing of grinding and abrasive products, saw a growth of 15.2% in operating revenue and 62.9% in total profit, making it the two sub industries with the fastest growth rate in economic indicators. The construction machinery industry and internal combustion engine industry have seen a decrease in operating revenue of over 12% and a decrease in profits of over 35%, making them the two sub industries with the most significant decline in performance indicators.
6. Fixed assets investment is improving
Under the combined effect of improved investment willingness and low base factors, the fixed assets investment in the machinery industry will show a rapid growth in 2022, and the fixed assets investment in the major categories of general equipment, special equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment, and instrument manufacturing industries involved in the national economy will increase by 14.8%, 12.1%, 12.6%, 42.6%, and 37.8% year on year respectively. Among them, private investment in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry maintained high-speed growth throughout the year, which is an important force driving the investment growth rate of the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry to exceed 40%; Fixed assets investment in automobile manufacturing industry will change from negative growth in 2020 and 2021 to positive growth in 2022.
7. The industry is operating in a prosperous range
The compilation of the Machinery Industry Prosperity Index covers multiple dimensions such as production, investment, foreign trade, and economic benefits, comprehensively reflecting the operation of the machinery industry. The Machinery Industry Prosperity Index opened high in February 2022, reaching a low point of the year in May due to the comprehensive impact of the epidemic, and gradually rebounded thereafter. Although there was a slight decline in the two months at the end of the year, it remained in the overall prosperity range for the whole year. The Machinery Industry Prosperity Index in December was 105.98.
（2） Main issues during operation
1. The pressure of rising costs continues
Although there may be some fluctuations in the prices of raw materials required for the machinery industry in 2022, they are generally at a high level. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the ex factory prices of raw materials, production materials, and industrial producers increased by 10.3% year-on-year throughout the year. In addition, the prices of key raw materials in some product manufacturing fields have risen rapidly. The prices of magnetic materials used in the low-voltage electrical industry and oriented silicon steel sheets used in transformers have significantly increased; The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate used in the energy storage industry has increased from 280000 yuan/ton at the end of 2021 to 520000 yuan/ton at the end of 2022, and the price surged to nearly 600000 yuan/ton in November. In addition, labor costs continue to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in the total wages of key enterprise employees. The total operating cost of the machinery industry for the year was 24.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, higher than the growth rate of operating revenue during the same period; The cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 84.6 yuan, an increase of 0.4 yuan from the previous year.
2. The difficulty of collecting payment has increased
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of 2022, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry reached 6.9 trillion yuan, exceeding 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, accounting for 32% of the total industrial accounts receivable in China, which is more than 10 percentage points higher than the proportion of indicators such as operating income and total profit of the machinery industry in the national industry; The average payback period for accounts receivable is 1.5 times that of the national industrial sector. In addition, a special survey shows that 53% of companies' total accounts receivable will increase in 2022, with 16% of companies experiencing double-digit growth, indicating significant pressure on their cash flow. At the end of the year, the turnover rate of current assets in the machinery industry was only 1.36 times, lower than the national industrial average of 0.35 times.
3. Overall weak demand in the domestic market
According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the national investment in equipment, tools and instruments, which is closely related to the market demand of mechanical products, will increase by 3.5% year on year in 2022, 1.6 percentage points lower than the growth rate of national fixed assets investment in the same period, and the investment in equipment procurement in the whole society is weak. Among the major categories of national economic industries mainly involved in the machinery industry, the capacity utilization rates of general equipment, specialized equipment, automobiles, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing are 79.2%, 77.6%, 72.7%, and 77.3%, respectively, a decrease of 1.8 to 3.7 percentage points from the previous year. Key contact enterprise data shows that the cumulative order amount of mechanical enterprises continued to experience negative growth throughout the year, with a narrowing trend in the decline in the second half of the year, and a year-on-year decrease of 2% at the end of the year. According to a special survey, as of the end of 2022, 50% of the surveyed enterprises had a year-on-year increase in their on hand orders, and 70% of the surveyed enterprises had on hand orders that only met the production needs of the first quarter of 2023; The problem of weak order growth and short production satisfaction time in the foreign trade market is more obvious, with a high number of orders in hand.
2、 Highlights in the development of the industry
Effectively respond to risks and challenges, the structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading of the machinery industry have been further advanced, the development of emerging industries has been accelerated, new kinetic energy has been accelerated, scientific and technological innovation achievements have emerged, and the resilience of industry development has been further enhanced.
(I) strong chain complement chain orderly development, high-end intelligent development speed.
Effectively respond to the impact of unexpected factors, the industrial chain supply chain resilience. The manufacturing capacity of high-end industrial mother machines, precision instruments and meters, and key core components has been improved, and the supply capacity of ultra-large-scale power equipment, large-scale mining and metallurgical equipment, and large-scale petrochemical equipment has been upgraded to provide guarantee for the development and utilization of national energy resources and the construction of ecological civilization. Machinery industry high-end, intelligent development speed. The domestic equipment car powertrain processing production line developed by Shanghai Jiaotong University Zhibang Technology in conjunction with Pushningjiang Machine Tool, Huazhong CNC and other units has been put into use in Shanghai General Motors, marking that the high-end processing center composed of localized functional components has been able to fully meet the high-end automotive powertrain Processing needs. The successful manufacture of the first domestic additive manufacturing axial flow turbine real machine runner by Harbin Electric Group is of great significance to promote the application of intelligent manufacturing technology in the field of power generation equipment manufacturing. The first domestic "one-key coking" intelligent complete set of equipment designed and developed by Taichao Group has been put into operation to fill the technical gap in the domestic coking industry.
(II) deepen innovation-driven, major equipment manufacturing breakthrough
The construction of the innovation system of the machinery industry has been accelerated. By the end of 2022, a total of 253 key laboratories, engineering research centers and innovation centers of the machinery industry have been listed for operation and approved for construction. Among them, there are 121 key laboratories and 96 listed for operation. 131 engineering research centers, 109 listed for operation; One innovation center was listed for operation. Enterprises actively invest in research and development innovation, major equipment independent innovation highlights frequently. The first domestic F-class 50 MW heavy-duty gas turbine independently developed by Dongfang Electric Group was successfully launched at the natural gas distributed energy site of Huadian Qingyuan overseas Chinese Industrial Park, marking a breakthrough from scratch in the field of heavy-duty gas turbines in China. The 16 MW offshore wind turbine with the largest single unit capacity, the largest impeller diameter and the lightest weight per MW jointly developed by China Three Gorges Group and Xinjiang Jinfeng technology has been offline, marking an important breakthrough in the manufacturing capacity of high-end equipment in China. YTO Group has successfully developed an intelligent high-end harvesting machine with all independent intellectual property rights and feeding more than 15kg-Dongfanghong YT6668 large-scale high-efficiency grain combine harvester, breaking the monopoly of foreign products in this field and escorting food security with high-quality agricultural machinery equipment.
(III) Practice Green Development and Promote Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries
Under the guidance of the "double carbon" goal, the machinery industry is fully promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. In 2022, the operating income and total profit of the energy and equipment manufacturing industry of the machinery industry increased by 20.4 and 33.9 respectively compared with the same period last year, driving the operating income of the machinery industry by 3.9 percentage points and the total profit by 5.1 percentage points. The output of representative products wind turbines accounts for more than 50% of the total output of power generation equipment in the whole year. Green low-carbon equipment continues to emerge, effectively promoting the development of traditional industries to reduce carbon. The development of construction machinery electrification is speeding up, the product system is becoming more and more perfect, and the sales volume of electric loaders has exceeded 1,000 units throughout the year, which will promote the green development of the engineering construction field. The successful test of the new generation of million volt transformer of TBEA plays an important role in improving the consumption of clean energy in China and ensuring the stable operation of the power grid. China's first set of subsea trees led by CNOOC successfully completed the submarine gas well blowout test operation in Yinggehai of the South China Sea and was officially put into use, indicating that China has the design, construction and application capability of complete sets of equipment for deepwater subsea trees, and provides important equipment support for improving the domestic energy self-sufficiency rate. China Railway Construction is an underground smart garage project in Jing 'an District, Shanghai. It not only builds the world's largest shaft tunneling machine "Dream Number" independently developed by China, but also innovatively proposes a system-wide solution for building underground three-dimensional smart parking garages on urban sporadic land using prefabricated vertical tunneling technology, which is of positive significance for optimizing the utilization of urban underground space and promoting the construction of smart cities.
(IV) emerging industries to lead the industry to improve quality and efficiency
In 2022, the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry was significantly higher than that of production indicators, and the leading role of emerging industries should not be underestimated. In the whole year, the machinery industry's strategic emerging industries achieved a total operating income of 23.1 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, driving the machinery industry's operating income to increase by 10.1 percentage points; the total profit was 1.4 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5 percent, driving the total profit of the machinery industry to increase by 11.7 percentage points. In particular, the energy storage and photovoltaic equipment industries contributed 62.9 per cent and 55.1 per cent of the total revenue and profit growth of the machinery industry. As a representative of emerging industries, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively, an increase of 96.9 and 93.4 percent over the same period last year. The production and sales volume will reach a record high and remain the first in the world for eight consecutive years. At the same time, the new generation of information technology, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, 5G and other new technologies and machinery to accelerate the integration, promote the transformation and upgrading of the industry. Weichai Group has established an industrial cloud service platform consisting of three parts: supplier collaborative research and development platform, engine intelligent cloud platform and big data analysis and decision-making platform to provide data support for the construction of intelligent manufacturing system. Lanshi Group's first domestic nuclear energy equipment welding digital platform built by industrial Internet, artificial intelligence, image processing, real-time data collection and analysis and other technical means has been successfully launched, forming an intelligent production system with greatly improved welding process traceability, welding quality stability and reliability, and welding quality evaluation accuracy.
(V) Foreign Trade Increases in Volume and Quality
In 2022, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was 1.07 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3%, exceeding the trillion US dollars mark for the second consecutive year. Among them, the total export volume was 740 billion US dollars and the trade surplus was 410.4 billion US dollars, both reaching a record high. From the perspective of trade structure, the annual general trade export value of the machinery industry increased by 12.5, 3.1 percentage points higher than the average export growth rate, accounting for 71.4 of the total export volume, which is the main force driving the total export volume of the machinery industry to a new high. From the perspective of product structure, the driving effect of complete automobiles, construction machinery, power generation equipment, mining equipment and other complete machines and mainframes on exports continues to increase. In the whole year, more than 3 million vehicles were exported, of which nearly 679000 new energy vehicles were exported, an increase of 1.2 times over the same period last year; the export volume of excavators, electric forklifts, metal rolling mills, cranes and other products increased by 41.9, 33.7, 51.8 and 20.1 respectively.
3. Machinery Industry Trend Predicted in 2023
At present, the internal and external environment facing the operation of the machinery industry is still complex and severe, but the development of the machinery industry is strong, dynamic, and has great potential. It is expected to continue a stable and positive trend throughout the year, achieving quantitative growth and qualitative improvement.
Analysis of Operating Environment of (I) Industry
In 2023, the risk of world economic recession rose, inflation expectations continued, geopolitical conflicts escalated threatening the recovery of global trade, developed economies on the industrial chain security demand increased, the game between major countries in key areas intensified, machinery industry foreign trade market is facing downward pressure. The domestic economy is still facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expected weakening, and the machinery industry is running smoothly and the task of transformation and development is heavy.
The Central Economic Work Conference clarified the general tone of "adhering to the principle of stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability", proactive fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy, strengthened macro-policy control, and improved coordination of various policies. The steady development of China provides solid support. Stock policy and incremental policy superimposed force, key investment and major engineering project construction started one after another, forming a physical workload, from the market level to provide a strong guarantee for the steady growth of the machinery industry. Since the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy, the domestic economy has further shown a trend of accelerated recovery. After returning to work during the Spring Festival, enterprises resumed production and grabbed orders in a positive state, reflecting a significant increase in market confidence.
(II) main sub-industry trend prediction
In 2023, it is expected that the operation of the main sub-sectors of the machinery industry will show a stable and positive trend.Automotive industryUnder the role of stabilizing the economy and promoting consumption policies, market demand is expected to continue to rebound, the development of new energy vehicles and automobile exports will continue to have a good momentum, and automobile production and sales are expected to increase slightly throughout the year.Electrical and Electrical IndustryThere are many favorable factors, wind power, photovoltaic, nuclear power and other clean energy power generation projects to accelerate the promotion of coal power market structure adjustment, to build intelligent, digital, high-end new transmission and distribution system power grid investment plus code, energy storage projects on a large scale landing. The main economic indicators of the industry are expected to achieve a certain rate of growth.Petrochemical general equipment manufacturing industryBased on the high oil and gas prices brought about by the oil and gas industry investment demand, the current enterprise orders in hand situation is better, in addition to the "double carbon" target also led to the stock of equipment transformation demand. The main economic indicators of the industry are expected to maintain steady growth.construction machinery industryDriven by favorable factors such as the continued increase in steady investment, the acceleration of infrastructure construction, the acceleration of special debt investment, and the increase in new loans from policy banks, it is expected that the industry will achieve an effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity.
(III) industry-wide trend prediction
According to a comprehensive analysis, the economic operation of the machinery industry will show a steady and good trend in 2023, with the main economic indicators low before and high after. It is estimated that the growth rate of industrial added value, operating income, total profit and other indicators for the whole year will be about 5%, and the import and export of foreign trade will be basically stable.
2023 is the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The machinery industry will adhere to the work tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, strengthen the confidence and determination of development, and actively respond to changes. Work hard, take the new atmosphere and new as to maintain the stable operation of the industry, promote the high-quality development of the industry, and provide strong support for the comprehensive construction of a socialist modern country.
Information source: Jijingwang
