Zhang Bin: At what stage is China's manufacturing industry upgrading currently? _Economic News _ News Center

Whenever China faces significant external environmental changes, expectations for the development of the manufacturing industry become even more urgent. Before making a choice, it is necessary to recognize the current situation, review the lessons and successful experiences in the development of the manufacturing industry, and follow the laws of development in order to make scientific decisions and lead China's manufacturing industry towards a better tomorrow.

The first issue to be clarified is the development status of China's manufacturing industry. Through the evidence chain of manufacturing transformation and upgrading, a relatively objective and complete judgment can be formed on the situation of manufacturing transformation and upgrading. The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry will inevitably involve three links: input, production, and product, which constitute the evidence chain for observing the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry.

Investment process: R&D investment and patents

The proportion of China's R&D investment in GDP has exceeded the level of many developed countries and is far higher than that of developing countries. Research has found that China's R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP was only 0.7% in 1991, far below the world average; By mid-2010, the R&D investment intensity had exceeded the median of OECD countries, and in 2012, it surpassed the average R&D intensity of OECD countries by 1.9%. In 2017, China's R&D investment intensity has reached 2.11%, higher than the level of many developed countries. In addition to the overall R&D situation of the whole society, the R&D investment within the manufacturing industry has also grown rapidly. The 31 sub sectors of the manufacturing industry were R&D in the manufacturing industry from 2006 to 2016; The personnel investment and funding growth rate of D have reached an average annual rate of 16.0% and 26.4% respectively, far exceeding the manufacturing value-added growth rate and GDP growth rate during this period.

The number and quality of patents have rapidly increased. Research and development investment is a necessary condition for innovation, while patents can be seen as a test of the results of innovation activities. According to the data released by the China National Intellectual Property Administration, the number of patent applications in China increased from 80000 in 1995 to more than 3.5 million in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 19%. From the perspective of patent composition, patents can be divided into three categories: invention patents, utility model patents, and design patents. Among them, invention patents are considered the most valuable type of patents in terms of technology, and their proportion in all authorized patents has increased from 8% in 1995 to 19% in 2017, indicating that the growth of patent applications in China is not only in terms of quantity but also in terms of quality. From the perspective of patent sources, in 2004, the proportion of patents authorized to foreign countries in China exceeded 20% of all authorized patents, but by the end of 2017, it had dropped to around 6%, indicating that domestic independent innovation forces are playing an increasingly important role.

Production process: use of intermediate goods, concentration, and number of high-tech enterprises

The increase in the proportion of intermediate inputs in output is an important sign of more specialized division of labor and improved efficiency.

The specialization and division of labor have been further enhanced. According to the input-output table, the proportion of intermediate inputs in the output of the manufacturing industry can be calculated. The results show that the proportion of intermediate inputs in the output of each segmented industry has increased to varying degrees. Even as the share of industrial added value continues to decline, the trend of increasing the proportion of intermediate goods input in the industrial sector has not changed, indicating that the professional level of the industrial sector is still deepening. The proportion of intermediate inputs in the total output of the manufacturing industry increased from 0.735 in 2004 to 0.783 in 2014.

Inefficient enterprises are eliminated, leading to an increase in industry concentration. Market competition means' survival of the fittest, survival of the fittest '. As enterprises enter, exit, and industry concentration increases, the efficiency of industry resource allocation is also optimized. The industry structure of China's industrial sector is facing a "major reshuffle". Compared to 2010, the number of highly oligopolistic industries in primary industries increased from 6 to 9 in 2016, and the number of low concentration oligopolistic industries increased from 10 to 15. On the contrary, the number of competitive industries has sharply decreased from 12 to 5, and the number of low concentration industries has sharply decreased. There has been a large number of companies withdrawing from industries such as mining, textiles, and general equipment manufacturing.

高新企业数量有更快增长。高新技术企业是创新活动的重要载体。2012年以后，尽管中国经济增速放慢，尽管工业增加值大幅放慢，但是高新技术企业数量增速进一步提高。1997-2007年期间，高新技术企业数量年均增速14.7%，2012至2017年则达到了22.3%。信息传播、计算机服务和软件业，科学研究、技术和地质勘探业位列增长最快的行业当中。

产品环节：出口产品复杂度、出口增加值率

从中国出口产品情况来看，中国的制造业水平远远超出了当前收入阶段对应的国际平均水平。出口是反映国家制造业能力和国际竞争力的一面镜子。以出口数据考察制造业生产能力有多种指标可供参考，比如：出口复杂度、高新产品出口占比等。根据计算，若以出口复杂度来看，中国出口对应的收入水平从2000年时的14643美元提高到了2014年时对应的24014美元。

出口附加值率持续提升。我们基于生产价值链和出口附加值率的计算发现，中国的出口附加值率不断提高，从2000年的69%提升至2014年的84%，其中加工贸易和一般贸易的出口附加值率分别从56%和85%增长至78%和89%，增幅分别为22和4个百分点。通过对出口附加值率的分析发现，对出口附加值率提高贡献最大的是行业内效应，而不是行业间效应。这表明中国制造业企业的技术升级路线更多选择进口中间品的替代，而不是出口新的产品。

通过以上对制造业转型升级证据链的考察，可见中国制造业转型升级的整体格局良好。不需要在政策上做大手术。

历史和国际经验表明，高质量的制造业发展不能脱离发展阶段拔苗助长，不能脱离开放环境，不能脱离市场经济环境，也不能脱离政府提供的基础设施建设和友好发展环境。遵循上述的发展规律，中国制造业发展才能取得今天的成绩。中国需要继续保持开放的市场经济环境，需要进一步完善基础设施建设和友好发展环境。

政府在推动制造业高质量发展中的政策定位，市场失灵。在市场重在弥补难以发挥作用的领域，才需要政府的支持。加快为土地流转、劳动和资本等要素流动创造更好的便利条件、维护公平竞争的市场环境、完善基础设施和服务、改进对基础科学的投入和管理机制等工作是政府引领制造业高质量发展工作的重点内容。