The heavyweight conference has opened, how can we make efforts in the next five years?

The key information on the next steps for our economy is hidden in the important meetings held in the past few days.

It can be said that this is the most important meeting of this year, as it will agree on the top-level economic plan for the next five years, which is the "15th Five Year Plan" that everyone is paying attention to.

Since the beginning of this year, a series of actions that have affected asset, industry, and regional development, such as anti internal competition, unified big market, urban work conference, and factor marketization reform, have actually been rehearsing around this important conference.

Before major events, there are often some setbacks.

During the small holiday in early October, important newspapers published eight economic articles signed as "Zhong Caiwen", which pointed to the obvious direction.

For important content, we must learn to read first-hand materials. Even if we don't understand them very well, browsing through them can give us a sense of the above and help us understand the next trends.

There are many interpretations of these eight articles on the market, but many of the content is not concise enough. In fact, to summarize, there are only three key points. Today, let me use the simplest language to sort them out, so that everyone can better feel the current situation.

Secondary transformation

The first point is that we will initiate the second major transformation in the "15th Five Year Plan".

Many people may wonder, when was our first transformation?

In fact, the 14th Five Year Plan is the first transformation.

The first transformation was from the familiar real estate industry to the manufacturing industry, and the core of the past five years has been doing this.

And now, our capital flow has begun to decline. Despite the rapid development of the manufacturing industry, it still belongs to the general manufacturing industry, with a large amount of redundant construction and overcapacity, occupying a large amount of resources.

In the context of great power games, the industry that determines victory or defeat is the "bottleneck" industry, the hard technology industry, and the field of competing hard power.

So in the next five years, we will embark on a second transformation and tilt more resources towards hard technology.

This is a very important underlying logical change, therefore, the most significant meaning of the 15th Five Year Plan is to initiate a second transformation.

In fact, the measures at this stage have already been quietly launched, but many people are not aware of it.

Starting from July, the "anti internal competition" policy, known as Supply Side Reform 2.0, was proposed to address the redundant construction of a large number of industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which has squeezed resources and led to the proposal of a unified large market.

The convening of the urban work conference is aimed at no longer spreading the cake or carrying out ineffective expansion infrastructure, but rather shrinking back and promoting effective technological transformation.

These are the most important elements for understanding the "15th Five Year Plan". By understanding this, one can understand the recent trends of major industries and enterprises. These policies are actually centered around the second transformation.

What impact does the second transformation have on us?

The first impact, as long as it is a major transformation or adjustment, will definitely bring a big impact, and many industries will be forced to transform.

During the first transformation, the contraction of real estate led to a decrease in assets for every household, resulting in a comprehensive contraction of many upstream and downstream industries.

The home furnishings industry is a typical representative, with multiple home furnishings tycoons experiencing setbacks in recent years.

In fact, the need to standardize social security payments for small and medium-sized enterprises in the past is essentially to raise the threshold for transformation, eliminate outdated production capacity, and promote upgrading.

The second impact is that transformation means that existing funds and resources need to flow into new fields.

The past 30 years have been an era of general inflation, but now it is a period of structural adjustment. In order to seize the opportunity, we must find the trend direction and see where resources flow and industries concentrate.

The "Zhong Ba Pian" clearly points out that various industries will not move in unison, but will have differentiation and temperature differences.

This is the first time that the existence of a "temperature difference" has been explicitly acknowledged,Macro data is good, but individual perceptions at the micro level may not necessarily be good, which is the temperature difference.

The article acknowledges differentiation, which means that some industries are eliminated, some industries are promoted, and some industries find it difficult to make money in the future. So it is important to find the trend direction and avoid stepping in the wrong direction.

If you keep staring at the real estate industry, these years will be very difficult. So the second transformation will definitely bring greater adjustments and impacts, so it is necessary to prepare in advance.

Five questions

The second key point is that the next development model for major Eastern countries is "risk hedging+technological breakthroughs".

The 15th Five Year Plan will have a very clear pattern: it will not focus too much on old problems, as long as they are stabilized and covered, and the main focus will be on industries related to the game with major powers.

This has already been reflected in the "Zhong Ba Pian".The official, who has rarely directly discussed issues this time, explicitly acknowledges the existence of five problems at present, and the importance can be imagined.

Firstly, consumption is sluggish. The article uses "four words" to describe: strong supply and weak demand.

Secondly, the issue of low prices.

Thirdly, the enterprise faces difficulties in operation, with issues with profitability and business environment.

Fourthly, issues related to local land games are prominent.

Fifth, real estate.

These five questions basically cover the core contradictions in the current economic and financial fields. If only the most critical five are selected, they are these five.

After understanding these five questions, it is even more important to understand the official response strategy.

The article mentions two keywords: "bottom line" and "stability".

This means that for existing old problems, efforts will not be made on a large scale, but rather to stabilize the situation and prevent systemic shocks.

From the "Zhong Ba Pian", it can be seen that a large amount of space focuses on innovation and technology, and specifically mentions foreign competition, which is rarely seen in economic planning documents.

Therefore, overall, our Zhigu Trend Analysis team has a conclusion: the current economic operation presents two systems.

The first system is the strong country system, which refers to industries related to the game between major powers, including manufacturing, military industry, hard technology, and bottleneck fields.

The second system is the livelihood system, which involves daily life and real estate.

At present, resources are clearly flowing towards the first system, while the second system is mainly a fallback, which is also reflected very clearly in the "Zhong Ba Pian".

Based on this pattern, we can speculate that:

Firstly, there won't be much opportunity in the consumer sector. Despite high expectations for consumption, there has been no real investment of gold or silver.

Secondly, the low prices will continue, and old issues will not be the focus of efforts.

Thirdly, the technology sector will continue to receive policy and financial support.

Fourthly, the positioning of real estate is relatively conservative.

Fifth, there will be significant differentiation between enterprises and industries. Industries that receive policy and financial support will have opportunities, while those that do not receive support can only survive.

There is a clear logical thread behind these changes. By understanding these contexts, one can determine the flow of funds and resources, and thus predict future structural changes and opportunities.

An uncertain era

In order to hedge against the impact of the four major risks, the Eastern powers are undergoing their second major transformation in recent years.

The third point is that we will usher in an era of greater uncertainty.

The "Zhong Ba Pian" repeatedly mentions the United States and the external situation, and it is rare to see a lot of great power game content in an economic planning document.

This indicates that there is an important strategic intention behind the 15th Five Year Plan - it is not just an economic plan, but an attempt to take over the gaps left by the international order in the global restructuring when opponents shrink.

This is a significant change and also means that the global order is undergoing a new reconstruction.

Our assets, wealth, and pricing power are no longer just economic activities, but will be more influenced by geopolitical factors.

Recent international events have further confirmed this connection.

The recent election results in Sakura Country were unexpected, with a female executive elected, triggering significant fluctuations in two types of commodities: rising gold prices and market volatility related to the aluminum industry.

Her policy orientation is to relax monetary policy, which will trigger a new round of global liquidity expansion. During this cycle, countries will compete to release water.

She also takes a tough stance towards us in foreign policy, and the geopolitical uncertainty has further increased.

In Europe, France's recent frequent debt problems have also exacerbated global instability.

These factors collectively affect global asset pricing.

Therefore, the next five years will enter a more uncertain cycle. This is not only an economic planning document, but also a strategic signal for the great power game. The next five years will not be peaceful, and each of us must be prepared to deal with fluctuations and risks.

Information source: Zhigu Trend (official account)