Entrepreneurs argue that there is no ceiling to China's economic development
【 Editor's note 】 Forward thinking and prediction, rich theoretical literacy, and extensive enterprise management experience are the labels of modern entrepreneurs in the new era. This article is the cognition and insights of Yin Jianguo, Vice President of Shandong Equipment Manufacturing Association and Deputy General Manager of Kaitai Group, who participated in the "5th China International Fluid Machinery Industry Summit Forum". The author explains the causes of China's rapid economic growth in the first 20 years of this century from the perspectives of theory and practice, using the key variable of "industrial system". The political factors behind economic growth are interpreted, and the evolution history of China's industrial economic system is introduced. The author points out the fallacies of the transformation hypothesis and the truth of China's overcapacity in the economic downturn, and predicts the development trend of "China's economic growth has no ceiling". This is a rare theoretical article with reference value for industry development, which is now shared with everyone. At the same time, we hope that more entrepreneurs can share their experiences and insights with the industry, and work together for the development of the industryContribute your own insights and insights.
Reflections and Cognition on Participating in the 5th China International Fluid Machinery Industry Summit Forum
Yin Jianguo, Shandong Kaitai Intelligent Shot Blasting Technology Research Institute
1Cognition: The intrinsic relationship between the internal factors, paths, and industrial system of China's economic growth
1.Redefine the epic high growth
In the late 1990s, the Chinese economy was in a slump... In 1998, China's economic policy shifted towards expansion, triggering an epic period of high growth
ChinaThe official growth path proposed in the 16th National Congress report in 2002 is to double the gross domestic product by 2020 compared to 2000. According to the goal of "doubling" set at the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2002, China's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2000 was priced at 1.22 trillion US dollars. "Doubling" means that it must reach 4.89 trillion US dollars by 2020. That is to say, by 2020, China's gross domestic product (calculated at 2000 prices) will exceed 35 trillion yuan. In the next 20 years, the Chinese economy will maintain a growth rate of at least 7.18%.
Prediction: China's Gross Domestic Product willIn 2005, it surpassed France; In 2020, China is expected to become the world's third largest economy; By 2050, it is possible to surpass Japan and become the world's second largest economy.
actual:In 2018, China's GDP was 90.03 trillion yuan; China's GDP surpassed Japan in 2010 and reached over 2.7 times that of Japan in 2018.
The balance of power The structural changes that occurred in China during the first 20 years of the 21st century are as dramatic as any changes encountered by the United States in its 244 year history. In the words of Czechoslovak President Havel at the time, it happened so quickly that we didn't have time to be shocked. The growth in demand for steel is a typical representative of the rapid development of China's industrial sector.
(1) The key variable of economic growth: industrial system
The 'industrial system' is an industrial economy composed of multiple industrial sectors that have mutual demand and supply relationships, and it must have the following characteristics:
1）Having sufficient industrial sectors to generate a sufficiently large market through interconnectivity between sectors（The definition of "enough": capable of forming a broad and stable supply and demand network within the industry, ensuring the full development of economic activities in various sectors.
2）Having a capital goods department that can provide most of the production equipment for the consumer goods sector, thereby laying a solid foundation for efficient and high-quality production of consumer goods, and promoting the development and upgrading of the consumer goods industry.
3）A social system that supports industrial activities with the development of industrialization, including not only material infrastructure, but also key infrastructure of social nature such as education, scientific research, finance, and health. They provide comprehensive support for the stable operation of the industrial system from multiple dimensions such as human resource cultivation, technological innovation, financial integration, and labor health protection。
The core value of the industrial system lies in shaping a self-sustaining internal mechanism for a country's economic growth, or in other words, forming a self reinforcing path that can continuously improve productivity. In economic theory, this mechanism is defined asThe "incremental return" mechanism means that with the expansion of industrial production scale and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, unit costs will show a downward trend, profits will increase, and more resources will be attracted to converge in the industrial field, further promoting the expansion of production scale and the upgrading of industrial hierarchy, forming a virtuous cycle of economic growth.
(2) Incremental returns: the driving force of economic growth
AdamSmith believed that the reason why industry is more important than agriculture is because industrial activities can generate increasing returns through division of labor - the continuous growth of productivity.
AlinYang (1982) started from Adam Smith's conclusion, but believed that the social division of labor in the production process is far more important than the division of labor within the enterprise. Because industrial production under division of labor can continuously increase the use of circuitous production methods, that is, a set of complex processes can be transformed into a series of simpler processes, at least some of which become suitable for the use of machines; In the process of adopting machines and circuitous production, further division of labor will emerge, and its economy will once again be limited by the market scope. The primary factor in achieving increasing returns is the progress of labor division between industries; The expansion of the industrial system leads to a positive feedback interaction between the deepening of division of labor, capital accumulation, and the expansion of market and production scales.
(3) The Evolution of China's Industrial System
fromStarting from the 1950s, China established a series of industrial sectors similar to the industrial structure of developed countries under extremely low per capita income economic conditions; However, the planned economy system implemented at that time had inherent flaws, which made it difficult for the incremental return mechanism in industrial economic growth to effectively exert its effectiveness, thus to some extent restricting the development vitality and potential release of the industrial system。
toIn the late 1990s, China successfully transitioned to a market economy system without fundamentally damaging its industrial system, laying the institutional foundation for the subsequent development of the industrial system。
enterAfter the 21st century, with the continuous improvement and deepening of the market economy system, various economic entities are able to respond and adjust in a timely and flexible manner based on the dynamic changes in market demand. In this situation, China's industrial system has been catalyzed and stimulated by a series of favorable factors, and has exploded with astonishing energy, showing a strong development trend in many aspects such as industrial scale expansion, technological level leap, and economic growth contribution, promoting China's industrial system to a new height and development stage, and occupying an increasingly important position in the global industrial economic pattern.
(4) The Relationship between China's Petroleum and Chemical Industry and Equipment Manufacturing Industry
fromSince 2010, China's petroleum and chemical industry has ranked second in the world, with the chemical industry ranking first. In 2010, the total output value of China's petroleum and chemical industry reached 8.82 trillion yuan; The total output value of the chemical industry reached 5.19 trillion yuan, surpassing the United States and ranking first in the world。
In 2017, China's chemical industry achieved a main revenue of 9.1 trillion yuan and a total profit of 605.07 billion yuan, accounting for 40% of the global chemical output value. （2018yearplummet1.8 trillion)
(5) I can'tThe endogenous power of underestimation
InFrom 1980 to 2003, China's machinery and equipment remained in a deficit in the international trade sector. However, 2004 became a key turning point in reversing this situation, as China's international trade in machinery and equipment shifted towards a surplus, marking the gradual improvement of China's machinery and equipment industry's competitiveness in the international market. After years of unremitting development and accumulation, China's machinery and equipment exports in 2020 surpassed Germany, which has long held a leading position in this field, for the first time. This is undoubtedly an important milestone in the development of China's machinery and equipment industry. It is worth noting that in the perspective of global industrial development, there is no fixed and universal model of "introduction, digestion, absorption, and re innovation". The rise of China's machinery and equipment industry is the result of continuous independent research and development investment, technological innovation breakthroughs, industrial structure optimization and upgrading, and precise grasp of international market demand under the unique national background and industrial development path. It demonstrates the increasing influence and competitiveness of China's industrial system in the global industrial pattern, and also contributes unique "Chinese solutions" and "Chinese wisdom" to the world's industrial development.
(6) Incremental returns in the high growth stage
Once the industrial system, which is large in scale and covers many sectors, enters the growth track, the inherent circuitous production mode of the industry itself exponentially amplifies the demand for basic industrial products。
This is driven by the high growth trendThe demand for "ultra long" has effectively pushed the equipment industry to break free from the constraints of import policies and win market advantages through independently developed products。
At the same time, the strong demand and continuously growing investment capacity are helping high-tech industries achieve widespread breakthroughs and rapid growth in multiple areas, driving the entire industrial system to continuously advance in technology, achieve all-round upgrading and progress, and promote the steady development of the industrial system towards higher quality and more innovative vitality, laying a solid foundation for the sustained prosperity of the national economy.
2.economic downturn
（1）Economic downturn and industrial growth slowdown
During the period of 2000-2013, the average growth rate of industry (10.88%) was higher than the average growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) (9.95%); During the period of 2014-2023, the average growth rate of industry (5.42%) was lower than the average growth rate of GDP (5.96%).
（2）The key to industrial injuriesDichotomy Theory and Transformation Logic
The high growth is due to investment-driven and extensive growth.。
The main problems of economic development are imbalance and overcapacity。
The fallacy of the "transformation hypothesis": there are "growth models" in the world that can be transformed into each other;。
Full content growth: research and development, service, information technology.
（3）Investment drives growth, but growth also drives investment
The production system More than 80% partially excluded。The "example" of "dichotomy" thinking: high-tech industries can be used to replace traditional industries; there is no replaceable relationship between different industries; various departments of the industrial system are linked by demand and supply; there must be high energy consuming departments in the industrial system, but without these departments, the operation of other departments will be hindered.
（4）"New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion"
Resource-based industries such as light industry, chemical industry, machinery, textile, metallurgy and building materials; iron and steel, local oil refining, electrolytic aluminum, tires, coking, chemical fertilizer, chlor-alkali and other official7 high energy-consuming industries. Top ten industries: five emerging industries of new generation information technology, high-end equipment, new energy and new materials, modern ocean, medical care and health, as well as five advantageous industries of high-end chemical industry, modern efficient agriculture, cultural creativity, boutique tourism and modern finance.
（5）The issue of economic growth is first and foremost a political issue.
Economic growth requires the initiative and creativity of social actors, not something that can happen naturally:
1）Production system (industry) that can make use of scientific and technical knowledge。
2）support system。
3）society-Political conditions。
4）government's economic policies.
yu yongding quoted the philosopher sartre,"People are not flowers and trees. The growth of flowers and trees is predetermined by seeds, while people have freedom of will. In the causal chain, there is a link determined by your freedom of will."
3.Can China's economy grow?
The development of China's industry is still the main source of economic growth.
Under the condition that the total productivity of the economy determines economic growth, it is more sensitive to the new output value of labor from agriculture to industry than industry itself, which just shows that the effect of industrial growth on economic development is far greater than that of industrial productivity growth. Therefore, the engine of the transfer of rural labor to non-agricultural industries is still the development of industry. We call the phenomenon of the economy's overall labor productivity growing faster than industrial productivity."The Industrialization Effect". Of course, the restrictive condition for this effect is the gap between agricultural labor productivity and industrial labor productivity. The greater the gap, the greater the effect of industrialization; when the gap tends to disappear, the effect of industrialization will also tend to the limit. Technological changes continue to destroy the existing production structure, but technological changes can never be separated from the accumulation of technical knowledge, production experience and skills. No new industrial development can be separated from the existing industrial system, there is no economic sovereignty without basic industry, the growth potential of the industrial system is unlimited, and the total growth of the industrial system. The increasing number of sectors, and finally leads to the positive feedback interaction between the deepening of the division of labor, capital accumulation, market size and the expansion of production scale-economic growth.
4.China's development is not"The Ceiling"
China"Overcapacity" said from the United States. After World War II, the United States created, maintained and expanded a liberal economic order to serve its economic and security interests, providing public goods on the one hand and benefiting from it on the other.
InIn the 21st century, the primary national security interest of the United States remains the same as it has been since 1776-to ensure a balance of power between the two wings of the United States and to keep them internally divided.
What the United States is really afraid of is that China's huge production capacity will cause its own production capacity to be marginalized or even eliminated in the competitive landscape of the global market: the concern and intervention of overcapacity is nothing new.-- but the risks we're seeing resurrected in new areas. Earlier rounds of the overcapacity crisis have led to the loss of a large number of jobs in the United States, and many American companies have fallen into business difficulties and even bankruptcy. In view of the huge volume and scale that China occupies in the global economic structure today, the spillover effects generated in the process of its economic operation will have a far-reaching impact on a wider range and a deeper level. This has undoubtedly become the United States. Important hidden worries and challenges facing the economic field.
A few years ago, China began to solve the problem of overcapacity in a few industries, however, the current situation has been reversed, the situation of overcapacity is becoming more and more serious and showing a growing trend. If the situation requires, we will take corresponding preventive measures to deal with possible risks, but we are more inclined to be able to take effective actions on our own initiative and properly handle this problem with macroeconomic control measures and structural adjustment forces, so as to avoid the possibility of bringing a second similar situation to its major trading partners.The adverse effects of the "China trade shock" to maintain the stability and balance of the global trading environment.
In 1971, the major financial event of the decoupling of the U.S. dollar and gold occurred. U.S. Treasury Secretary Connelly said to those finance ministers at the G-10 meeting: "The U.S. dollar is our currency, but it is your problem."
Cecco(2012): The theory of "excessive savings" can be a reason for the United States not to change the "savings gap" caused by loose monetary policy II, and it is up to savers to raise the exchange rate.
The status of China's industrial capacity today reflects the demand for it in the world market.。
As long as China finally believes that Chinese industry can rely on its own competitiveness to spread the world without relying on exports to the United States, China's production capacity is not China's problem, but the United States' problem (the US dollar becomes the United States' problem); China's industrial competitiveness It must be established under the condition that domestic demand is the mainstay, which requires the liberalization of domestic industries"Dichotomy" restrictions.
China's industrialization task has not yet been completed, and the machinery and equipment industry has always been in a strategic position to complete this task.。
Although the economic scale of machinery and equipment industrial enterprises is not so large, it has always supported the technological progress of traditional industrial sectors and the development of emerging industrial sectors; although it belongs to traditional industries, it has never been slack in technological progress, and has continuously absorbed and integrated New technology; the machinery and equipment industry should firmly seize this rare historical opportunity, vigorously promote the spirit of independent innovation, and integrate it into the blood of enterprise development. While fully supporting the country's grand industrialization cause to move forward steadily, we should constantly strengthen our own strength, realize the expansion of scale and the renewal and iteration of technology, meet the challenges and opportunities in the future with a new attitude, contribute irreplaceable strength to the rise and take-off of national industry, forge ahead bravely towards higher goals, and continue to write brilliant chapters.
IIPerception
1.The Truth of China's Economic Overcapacity Theory
With the advantages of China's development model, the so-called China's economic overcapacity theory is a neologism artificially produced by the West in order to curb China's development. From the perspective of macroeconomics, industrial surplus is a false proposition, and there is no absolute division of the so-called old and new kinetic energy. In fact, the old kinetic energy is the premise and foundation for the breeding and development of new kinetic energy. The two are interdependent and inseparable, and together constitute the power system of economic development. AndThe term "overcapacity" is just a false label imposed by the United States on China, and it is another embodiment of its bullying behavior against China.
At the level of economic development theory, the U.The theory of "consumption-driven economy" is extremely misleading. From a practical point of view, European and American countries tried to shift from an investment-driven economic growth model to a consumption-driven model, but in the end it proved to be a failure. In sharp contrast, China's development benefits from the government's scientific and reasonable industrial policy guidance, and continues to increase investment in key areas such as infrastructure construction, power and energy supply, and the cultivation of high-quality workers. With its own unique factor endowment advantages, China has gradually transformed it into a strong competitive advantage in the process of development. In contrast, developed countries in Europe and the United States, after decades of deindustrialization, their original comparative advantages have been lost, and the manufacturing industry has shown a continuous decline, and this trend has been difficult to reverse.
In China, the investment pull not only did not lead to the so-calledThe crisis of "overcapacity" has instead spawned continuous technological innovation and industrial upgrading. With the steady increase in the level of labor productivity, household income has increased accordingly, which in turn drives the increase in consumption, and the growth of consumption has reversely promoted the increase in investment, thus forming a virtuous circle and closed loop, which has injected a steady stream of power into the development of China's economy., It indicates that China's economy has infinitely broad development prospects.
2.Key Strategies of Enterprise Supply Chain Construction and Development
The development of China's industrial economy is essentially the coordinated development of the industrial system, and so are enterprises. How to establish a robust, harmonious and stable supply chain is a key element for the sustainable development of enterprises. The quality of enterprise products depends to a large extent on the quality of supply chain supporting products, and the value of enterprise products is determined by the value chain contained in the supply chain. Only by successfully shaping the value chain advantage of the enterprise can the value of the enterprise be continuously improved and developed steadily.
因此，企业要致力于企业产品的生态链建设，从健康发展的角度出发，充分考量和开泰产品的匹配度和协同度，通过供应链产品的创新驱动来提升产品质量，进而塑造产品品牌形象，提高产品的品牌价值。所以供应链应又从企业产品的品牌角度来考虑，有什么样的品牌，就需要配置相应的供应链，即：企业需依据自身的品牌定位来配置相应的供应链体系，也就是将来希望自己的孩子要成为什么样的人，就需要去上相应匹配的学校。要多选择一些有理想有追求的“贵族型”客户，有创新能力的专业性客户，逐步淘汰那些跟着开泰单纯逐利、缺乏创新意识的客户。只有这样，在未来才能形成双向奔赴、双向成就的发展局面，企业的产品价值会越来越高，也就是说企业要产生什么样的产品价值，就要配置什么样的价值供应链，企业未来的发展是由企业的生态链决定的，高质量的生态链才会产生高质量的发展。
3.企业产品细分市场的挖掘与品牌塑造
从华住会三个品牌酒店来看，其在产品细分领域的精准布局值得借鉴。桔子酒店聚焦于恋人、家庭等客群，房间很温馨私密性很好，在房间功能设计方面很有温情，灯光亮度不是有开关决定，换成亮度的百分比，而且电话变成按键对讲，提升了服务的满意度，很适合家庭，大人小孩都能操作；全季酒店精准定位商务出差人群，提供专业、高效的商务服务设施与环境；铂瑞酒店则面向高端客群，适合职业经理人和老板，营造奢华、舒适的住宿体验。尽管三个品牌定位各异，但通过整合餐饮、健身和衣物清洗等服务资源，实现了品牌间的协同发展，有效提升了桔子和全季酒店的客户期望值与满意度。
有句话说什么叫品牌，超出你的预期就是品牌，桔子和全季酒店超出了客户的预期，从而在无形中又扩大的住宿的客户群，桔子酒店的客户群将来可能成为全季酒店的客户群，全季酒店的客户群将来可能成为铂瑞酒店的客户群。企业要深挖产品的细分市场，塑造差异化的客户群体至关重要。开泰已具有深挖细分市场的优势，以金属磨料和抛丸机的后勤群体作为坚实后盾，有能力提升细分产品的美誉度和品牌影响力，逐步拓展产品的细分市场，形成企业的比较优势，在比较优势的基础上变成绝对优势。应积极向华住会学习，持续深耕细分市场，不断拓展产品边界，推动企业形成规模优势，因为只有做大做强，才能实现企业的可持续发展目标。
4.企业品牌建设的文化维度启示
路过西安机场，从西安机场一出来就看到秦岭的超长玻璃国画，秦岭作为中国的龙脉，赋予了西安一种雄浑壮阔的气质，让人对西安这座城市产生了一种宏大的认识。步入机场内部，秦腔的介绍展示了陕西独特的文化之魂，兵马俑的介绍则让人深切感受到陕西历史文化的厚重底蕴。西安机场的成功建设，无疑是中央高度重视与强大组织力量共同作用的结果，成功扭转了人们对西安固有的落后印象。
对于企业而言，也要从中汲取经验，着力总结提炼企业的文化之魂。就像想到西安就想到秦腔一样，企业需找到能够让大众迅速铭记的文化符号和核心价值，使大家一下就能记住企业。企业之骨就像是价值观，具体体现为企业的使命和愿景，深入挖掘企业的历史文化资源，能够使客户对企业产生敬意与认同感。从文化之魂、企业之骨以及历史文化传承这三个维度全方位诠释企业，有助于强化企业品牌形象，提升产品的溢价能力，让客户真切感受到产品的价值所在，实现物有所值的消费体验，进而推动企业在市场竞争中脱颖而出，实现长远发展。
