How can enterprises effectively manage risks in the current epidemic situation

A sudden "COVID-19" epidemic broke the enterprise's plan to return to work after the holiday. The varying degrees of blockade and control of urban transportation, the sharp decline of customers in the catering industry, the difficulty of resuming work for production enterprises that urgently need masks and other epidemic materials, the sudden delay of resumption dates for ordinary enterprises, and the new challenges of online work have made the physical and mental health of enterprise employees a top priority under the epidemic... Special risks accompanied by systemic risks have suddenly been pushed to the face of every enterprise.

Even Jia Guolong, the chairman of the famous catering company Xibei, which has more than 400 stores in 60 cities across the country, said that the cash flow on its account cannot withstand three months. A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are facing a major test of life and death. Of course, this time the government quickly introduced a series of assistance policies, which to some extent reduced the risks that enterprises need to bear. But risk management has become a skill that every enterprise urgently needs to master.

Renowned American economist Alison Schrage proposed five rules for risk management in her book "Hedging: How to Take Smart Risks in an Uncertain Age", which apply the same wisdom from financial science to ordinary businesses in various industries.

Rule 1: Without risk, there is no return

When people hear the word 'risk', they instinctively think of some terrible things, bad situations, such as losing their job, wealth, or spouse. But technically, risk describes all possible consequences - good or bad - and the probability of these consequences occurring.

This rule teaches you to think clearly about where you are going before entering the "risk" fast lane. Finding the well-defined rewards you are looking for will increase the probability of successful adventure. Usually, we need to define returns based on what risk is not - or what is risk-free. 'Risk free' is one of the most powerful concepts in finance.

Clarifying what you want may sound simple, but it can be the most difficult part of risk management. The following three steps can provide clear information to help you assess what risks you may need to take to achieve your goals.

What is your ultimate goal? What would it look like if you implemented it?

How to achieve goals without risk or with as little risk as possible? In other words, what can guarantee that you will achieve your goals?

Is this risk-free choice possible or desirable? If not, how much risk do you need to take to get what you want?

These three steps introduce the concept commonly used by financial economists: risk-free. A risk-free choice can provide what you want with complete certainty. Simply stating what you want and setting it as a goal is an extremely powerful tool.

Alison Schrage introduces the case of Fengke Food Group in her book, helping everyone better understand and use the tool of "risk-free" when making decisions.

Carter Cole, the Chief Operating Officer of Focus Brands, led a multi billion dollar company at around the age of 30. She has operated famous brands such as Cinnabon (food brand) and Antian Butterfly Cake. Cinnabon's iconic product, the butter cinnamon roll, is as big as a person's face and has a delicious taste, but it has a high sugar content with 880 calories. When Cole joined in 2010, Cinnabon cinnamon rolls had already experienced six consecutive years of declining net sales. Consumers claim they want healthier choices.

Cinnamon rolls must undergo changes, so the company launched the "599 Project". The "599 Project" modified the original formula to meet the low calorie needs of consumers, reducing calories to below 600 by adding artificial sweeteners and stabilizers.

Cole rejected the motion because the taste of this new product is not good, and she believes that doing so will lead to further sales decline. She decided to keep the original recipe and requested all stores to provide 350 calorie mini rolls. The mini roll is a smaller version than the original cinnamon roll, only the size of a human fist. Mini rolls have actually been on sale for a long time, but less than 15% of stores had this product listed before.

Store owners are skeptical about this. Cinnabon cinnamon rolls are known for their enormous size, and if sold in smaller versions, stores will have to sell them at a lower price: priced at $2.50 instead of $3.60. If there are not enough existing customers choosing mini rolls, it means that profits may be even lower. In addition, making mini rolls requires investment in new baking equipment.

Cole convinced the store owners that mini rolls would increase sales because they would attract new customers who didn't want cinnamon rolls as big as their faces. Her decision paid off: sales of the original cinnamon rolls hardly decreased, while overall sales increased by 6%, largely due to the mini rolls. Since then, Cinnabon has thrived, while similar fast food companies have fallen into difficulties or gone bankrupt.

In Kohl's decision-making process, we can see the application of the concept of risk-free. Firstly, she set her goal: to increase sales in a constantly changing market. Then Cole found the lowest risk option that could increase sales. Her colleagues believe that low calorie pastries are the answer, as everyone in the industry is offering low calorie versions of their own products. But Kohl believes that this approach carries greater risks, and using a scaled down version of existing products instead of changing the formula of popular products is the least risky solution.

Rule 2: Taking chances is a crazy adventure

Our rational approach when making adventurous decisions is to assign weights to each outcome based on their actual probability of occurrence, and then evaluate the risk. However, aversion to losses can make us "crazy", such as when we lose money in gambling, we will bet even more exaggeratedly. Sometimes, when dealing with risks, enterprises may encounter such problems, relying on luck and assuming that the probability of risk occurring on themselves is very small.

In the 1970s and 1980s, there was an electronics chain store called "Crazy Eddie" in New York. It was founded by the Eddie Antal family. At that time, its advertisements were everywhere. It hired Dr. Jerry Carroll, a local radio DJ with extremely fast speaking speed, to loudly promote cheap electrical products, and finally ended with "Crazy Eddie, its price is really crazy... crazy... crazy...". This advertisement has become a cultural benchmark.

It has been proven that 'Crazy Eddie' is just a place used by a large family criminal gang to deceive people. These stores sell cheap electronic products, but most of the money they make is earned by underreporting sales, evading income tax, and pocketing business tax revenue. These methods have enabled the Antar family to earn a considerable amount of money, approximately $7 million. But they want more.

Eddie's cousin Sam studied accounting and obtained a PhD in economics. He wants' Crazy Eddie 'to go public. Preparing for IPO takes several years; The higher the IPO price, the more money the Antal family can get. So in the preparation stage of the IPO, they begin to announce higher and higher revenues and pay more taxes owed, as the increase in profits will attract investors and boost the stock price.

Running a tax evasion business carries risks. Such a company going public will have another level of risk. Listing will bring more official regulation, and once outsiders own a majority of the company's shares, the control of the Antal family will be weakened. But they clearly did not discuss these risks.

Sam was working for an auditing company at the time, so he knew all the accounting techniques and how to mislead auditors. The Antar family believes they can operate such a big scam and will never be caught. Bombarding with the most memorable advertising radio waves of those 10 years was also part of their collective delirium.

In 1984, the stock was listed and sold at a price of $8 per share. As profits seem to be growing, the size and stock price of chain stores are also increasing. At its peak, 'Crazy Eddie' had 43 stores and reported sales of $353 million. But on paper, it is even more profitable, which stems from the manipulation of the Antar family. This family kept selling their stocks and cashed out over $60 million in total.

But electronic retail is no longer as profitable as before, so the Antal family has increased their criminal scale and intensity, using money laundering methods to inflate sales.

As the business situation further deteriorates, the actual losses of "Crazy Eddie" are increasing. Rumors of family infighting and slowing growth in the electronic market have worried investors, causing the stock price to drop from $21.65 per share to around $5 per share. The 5% stake held by the Antar family is almost worthless. They attempted to repurchase most of the company's stocks, but were unable to obtain financing and some offered higher prices. Another investor defeated them and quickly drove away the Antar family. About two weeks later, the new owner discovered that the inventory of "Crazy Eddie" had been overstated by $65 million. The scam ends here.

Eddie fled to Israel, but was arrested there. Sam betrayed his family and began working with the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to file a case for the stock fraud of 'Crazy Eddie'. He paid the fine and was released after being imprisoned for 6 months.

通常，我们承担巨大风险的理由可以归结到我们如何看待概率。我们搞错概率的最常见方式是：

1. 我们高估了确定性。我们甚至不会意识到某个决定其实有着与之相关的风险。安塔尔家族从未想过他们会被抓住，他们相信山姆总能胜过美国证券交易委员会和美国国税局。

2. 我们高估了不太可能发生的事件的风险。我们假设一个遥远且可怕的事件比实际更可能发生。这就是为什么很多人即使知道死于车祸的概率更高，仍会更害怕乘坐飞机。

3. 我们假设了其实不存在的相关性。安塔尔家族认为，因为他们能成功地逃税，他们也就能从证券欺诈中脱身。这是错误的想法。他们早期的成功使他们敢于承担更大的风险而继续欺诈。

4. 我们对非常可能或非常不可能发生的事件给予了太高的权重，但对这两者之间的事件几乎没有给予任何权重。

规则3 多样化是一种强大的风控工具

通常来说，潜在的回报越高，你需要承担的风险就越大。但更高的风险并不总是意味着更多的回报。20 世纪五六十年代，一个重大的启示，改变了整个投资行业——你可以通过多样化在降低风险的同时获得相同的预期回报。

同样，多样化策略也可以用在金融以外的市场，比如你意想不到的种马场。

培育一匹能赢得比赛的马是一次大冒险。因为冠军马的后代经过基因的组合变异，能赢得比赛的机会并不大。但冠军马的配种费是绝对昂贵的。因此，据肯塔基大学的经济学家吉尔·斯托的研究数据，支付了更高的配种费的种马场最终往往得到了较低的赛场收入。

为了管理投资巨大但没有回报的风险，育种者很少让自己培育的马匹去参赛。小马驹很可能在出生一年后就被卖掉，因为这时小马驹的售价几乎完全是由其血统决定的。在马匹的潜能得以完全展露之前，育种者可以获得一些投资回报。

也有的选择再等一年后出售，在它两岁的时候开始进行短距离的比赛。在这个阶段，会披露更多的信息，比如它在短距离冲刺时能跑多快，但它在长距离比赛中赢得巨额奖金的能力仍然未知。

2009年，科学家发现马身上有3种基因类型：冲刺型、长跑型和混合型。冲刺型的马匹往往在小的时候最好卖。同时具有冲刺和长跑基因（混合型）的马最值钱，因为它们更灵活。赢得大型赛事不仅有巨额奖金和巨大荣耀，最终还可以赚取巨额的配种费。

但市场往往会在赛前销售中垂青冲刺型马，因为赢得冲刺比赛是一种可以早早观察到的信息。投资于育种的人有机会早点获得其投资的回报而降低风险。但这样做又会产生一个新的风险：近亲繁殖，导致很多后代马根本上不了赛场。

但是如果转变思路，如果目标是培育一匹能赢得比赛的马，降低风险的策略就会有所不同。

目前几乎没有证据表明，与赛事冠军交配可以显著增加在赛事中胜出的概率。而一匹配种费较低的马，却可能繁殖出类似的或更好的后代，它甚至还能为基因池带入一些多样性，增加繁殖出混合型马的概率。所以，与其把配种费压在一匹冠军马身上，还不如选择更多的配种费较低的马配种，通过增加能上赛场的马的数量来增加马场的收入。

所以多样化是一种强大的降低风险的工具。

规则4 对冲风险，成为你领域的主人

在消除了不必要的风险之后，你仍然可以进一步减少剩余的风险。阿莉森·施拉格指出，最小化风险的一个策略是对冲。对冲涉及让渡大幅收益以降低风险，避免重大损失。需要技巧的地方在于确定风险和回报之间的平衡点，或者确切知道要冒多大的风险。

世界上最大的游轮公司“嘉年华”是一家家族企业，首席执行官阿诺德·唐纳德上任时，嘉年华面临一系列备受瞩目的挫败。2012 年，歌诗达协和号在意大利海岸失事，32名乘客和机组人员死亡，船长弃船。一年后，凯旋号邮轮引擎起火，在邮轮被拖到港口的4天里，因为停电，船上的卫生设施停用，旅客遭遇了未经处理的污水漫延的可怕遭遇。

对任何公司来说，这都是一个巨大的挫折。对邮轮行业的形象来说，更是严重的打击。因为邮轮旅行本就是放弃了个性化体验的风险而选择的保险项。如果邮轮旅行还出现了风险，那最吸引人的部分就失去了吸引力。

唐纳德最大的优点就是能找到风险和回报的平衡点，且最大化获得想要的东西的概率——正是邮轮业改革所需的。他挖来了迪士尼魔法手环背后的创造者约翰·帕吉特。迪士尼可以跟踪带着这种魔法手环的游客的位置，协调他们在园内的出行交通而减少排队等候的时间。

帕吉特和他的团队为嘉年华推出了类似的产品，称为“海洋勋章”。这个产品将魔法手环的想法推进了一步。邮轮可能会变得大众化，你不用思考或计划就可以轻松度假，但你也只是3000人的大团体中的某个人而已——这就是风险平衡。但海洋勋章承诺让你“鱼和熊掌”兼得。海洋勋章通过不断地更新数据来预测你的每一个需求和想法，甚至在你想要什么东西之前就给你提供个性化的服务——这可真是一种“奥威尔式”的邮轮体验。

采用这种技术是一次冒险。重新培训员工并对邮轮进行重新布线是必不可少的工作。负面效果包括：很可能在早期出现故障，实施技术的成本很高，客户对共享数据会感到不满。海洋勋章在2017年的消费电子展上发布，被誉为邮轮业的新未来，媒体也进行了大量的报道。但大家都没有提到的是，唐纳德采用了谨慎的对冲策略：他下的最大的注只占船队的百分之一，而且是以几乎没有任何下跌风险的方式在下注。海洋勋章的推出非常缓慢。发布海洋勋章的几个月后，才在一艘高端的公主号邮轮上选择了一些游客进行测试；一年后，才推广到乘坐该船的所有乘客。而想在所有嘉年华邮轮上使用海洋勋章估计还需要等好几年。

唐纳德的成功可以归结于努力工作、保持理智、将远大的期望与谨慎的行事相结合。他有最好的打算，但也会做最坏的准备。这种策略可能缺乏其他著名企业家对其成就加以夸耀时所具备的戏剧性效果，但实实在在地增加了成功的概率。

规则5 训练有素，并保持灵活性

风险对我们认为可能发生的一切做出估计，但也有我们从未想象过的事情会发生——比如，这次的新冠肺炎疫情。

有些人对风险管理持怀疑态度，认为它只能保护我们免受可以制订计划进行处理的风险的影响，将我们带入虚假的安全感。但其实我们也有可能为无法规划的风险做出规划。它的方法是管理你能想到的风险，同时保留恰当的灵活性来应对意外。

退役将军麦克马斯特是军事界的传奇人物，因为他取得了众多决定性战役的胜利。他认为，为了能够应对意外，军队必须具备4个要素，而这可以帮助它们保持必需的灵活性来对意料之外的事情做出反应。这些原则在战争中和企业管理中都有用：

1. 营造氛围，鼓励低级指挥官提出新想法、挑战官本主义，并被上级听到。士兵必须感到能表达自己的想法，哪怕它违背传统智慧和主流战略。这有利于形成看待冲突的平衡观点并避免“过于陷入教条的车辙”。

2. 意识到“超级武器也最终会有（有效的）对抗措施来应对它”。所以军队需要其他的技术。

3. 具备一个鼓励“快速学习、快速传播经验教训”的系统。这需要快速共享信息并做出正确的解读。

4. 聘用具有思想灵活度、能随着环境变化而修改战略的指挥官。这需要“一个鼓励提问、鼓励创意的环境”，并提供优质的培训。这是一个艰难的平衡——军方想要士兵有一些自主权，但事先的计划和组织也很关键。这就是拥有训练有素的部队如此重要的原因。一旦事情在战斗中出错，人们很容易失去理智而恐慌，所以训练和准备能够帮助士兵保持冷静和理智。

我们可以将这些建议一般化，用在企业应对不确定风险的管理上。比如，在这次疫情风险中，稳健医疗在其他口罩、防护服等生产企业都春节放假无法恢复生产时，因为提前部署和动员口罩车间380人春节不休假，各子公司领导手机保持通畅，随时参加线上会议，员工随时待命等举措，在2019年12月20日至2020年1月26日，为社会尤其是医院生产和提供了1.089亿只口罩，11.47万件防护服，为奋战在一线的医务工作者提供了有力的保障，也同时为企业带来了巨大的社会效益和经济效益。在不确定性无处不在的今天，风险可以转化为机遇，关键是学会风险管控。

总之，通过了解风险背后的科学，我们可以做到这几点：如何定义风险、如何评估风险、如何识别风险类型，以及如何管理风险。金融经济学是风险科学。它提供了一个框架，帮助我们了解什么才是值得冒的风险。一旦我们知道什么有用以及为什么有用，我们就可以在做出决定时应用我们的风险策略。

文章来源：互联网金融

Editor He Yang of this website/Organizing