On the first day of trading in the national carbon market, 210 million yuan was sold, and there is still room for further price increases
The National Carbon Emission Trading Market (hereinafter referred to as the "National Carbon Market") recently held a launch ceremony in Beijing, Shanghai, and Wuhan, and immediately began the first batch of trading after its launch. At this point, the highly anticipated national carbon emission trading system has officially launched and opened for trading. Companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, Huaneng Group, Huadian Group, and Shenergy Group participated in the first day of trading in the national carbon market. Industry insiders say that the official opening of the national carbon market marks a new stage in China's market-oriented carbon reduction efforts, which is another major milestone in China's efforts to address climate change.
On the first day of its launch, the national carbon market welcomed a good start. According to data from the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "SEX"), the opening price of carbon quotas is 48 yuan/ton. At 9:30, the first national carbon trading has been successfully matched at a price of 52.78 yuan/ton, with a total transaction of 160000 tons and a trading volume of 7.9 million yuan. As of the close of the day, the latest price of carbon quotas was 51.23 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.73%, and the average price was 51.23 yuan/ton. The highest price on that day was 52.80 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 48 yuan/ton. The total trading volume is 4.104 million tons, with a total trading volume of 210 million yuan.
The relevant person in charge of the Shanghai Environmental Protection Exchange stated that according to the relevant trading rules, the average daily transaction price is the closing price of the day. As a result, the closing price of carbon emission quotas on the first trading day of the national carbon market was also reported at 51.23 yuan/ton. Overall, the trading on the first trading day of the national carbon market was smooth, orderly, and in line with expectations, and the investment and trading enthusiasm of various participants in the market was relatively strong.
Zhao Yingmin, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, pointed out that domestic and foreign practices have shown that the carbon market is a policy tool for achieving specific emission reduction targets at a lower cost. Compared with traditional administrative management methods, it can not only compact the responsibility of greenhouse gas emission control to enterprises, but also provide corresponding economic incentive mechanisms for carbon reduction, reduce the emission reduction costs of the whole society, and drive green technology innovation and industrial investment, providing an effective tool for handling the relationship between economic development and carbon reduction.
The 14th Five Year Plan period is a critical and window period for carbon peak, and building a mature and complete carbon market is an important path to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality. With the inclusion of the power generation industry in the carbon market and the promotion of green and low-carbon development, high emission industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, steel, non-ferrous metals, papermaking, and aviation may all be included in the national carbon trading market.
Looking ahead to the future trend of carbon prices, industry insiders generally expect that there may be significant room for price increases in the future. The "2020 China Carbon Price Survey Report" compiled by institutions such as the China Carbon Forum predicts that the national carbon emission trading price will be about 49 yuan/ton at the beginning of its establishment, and the carbon price is expected to reach 93 yuan/ton by 2030, and exceed 167 yuan/ton by the middle of this century.
According to a research report by Guojin Securities, due to the influence of multiple factors on carbon prices, a feasible method for predicting carbon prices is to calculate the proportion of China's carbon trading market from the proportion of the EU carbon trading market to the total GDP at the peak of carbon emissions. Due to the overall economic development of the 28 EU countries being better than China, China's carbon trading amount as a percentage of GDP is at most comparable to the EU market. According to its calculations, the carbon price in China's carbon market in 2030 will be around 80-120 yuan/ton. This result is close to the national carbon market carbon price of $13/ton calculated by another research team, Zhang Xiliang's team at Tsinghua University, in 2030.
Information source: Economic Reference Report
