Institutions predict that CPI will rise slightly to around 1% year-on-year in April
The National Bureau of Statistics is about to release the CPI data for April. Multiple institutions predict that although pork and vegetable prices continue to decline, due to a slight rebound in non food items and the support of tail lifting factors, the CPI in April will slightly increase year-on-year, with a rise of about 1%.
Entering April, food prices continue to fall driven by pork and vegetable prices, and the positive driving force of new price increases will further weaken. However, the tail lifting effect will turn from negative to positive, continuing to dominate the year-on-year changes in CPI for the month. CPI is expected to rebound to 1.0% year-on-year in April. ”Zhou Xi, a securities analyst at Bohai Securities Research Institute, said.
It is expected that the CPI will rise from 0.4% to around 1.1% in April. ”The macro research team of China Minsheng Bank believes that since April, due to the improvement of epidemic control and the warming weather, commodity supply has continued to recover, and social demand has continued to rise. In terms of food prices, since April, pork prices have continued their downward trend since mid to late February, and fresh vegetable prices, which have the second highest impact on food, have also continued their downward trend after the Spring Festival.
In terms of non food prices, various categories of goods and services have generally rebounded due to factors such as rising upstream costs and the Qingming holiday. Clothing prices are entering the peak season and are expected to rebound month on month; Under the influence of improved service consumption demand and the Qingming holiday, service prices have rebounded. Energy and residential prices continue to rise under the influence of upstream price increases, while hotel accommodation, travel and catering prices have increased month on month due to holiday factors.
Overall, it is expected that the decrease in food prices in April will to some extent offset the slight rebound in non food items, and it is expected that the CPI in April will slightly decline compared to the previous month. ”The macro research team of China Minsheng Bank pointed out.
Li Chao, Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities, predicts that the CPI in April will slightly decrease by 0.1% month on month and increase by 1.1% year-on-year, supported by the upward trend in CPI. He pointed out that pork and vegetable prices continue to decline. At the end of the first quarter, there were 43.18 million breeding sows in China, which has recovered to 96.6% of the end of 2017, and the pig inventory has also recovered to 94.2% of the end of 2017. Pork consumption has entered the off-season, and the supply situation continues to improve. Pork prices have been declining for 12 consecutive weeks, with the average price of agricultural grade pork falling below 40 yuan/jin in April, which poses a significant drag on food items. In terms of non food items, he believes that the Qingming Festival holiday has a promoting effect on tourism and offline consumption.
The macro team of Guotai Junan believes that the CPI in April will rebound to around 0.9% year-on-year, with most food items experiencing a decline, dragging down the rebound, and non food items showing a slight rebound. The ten day data of the consumer price index (iCPI) based on the online big data of the Internet shows that since April, the medical and clothing items have continued to be strong, other goods and services have slightly decreased, and the direction of other items is inconsistent in the first ten days of the year. It is expected that the non food items will pick up slightly on a year-on-year basis.
Information source: Economic Reference Report
