In the second half of the year, China's economy remains resilient and maintains an overall stable trend
2018From the year to the middle stage. From the situation in the first half of the year, although facing unfavorable changes in both internal and external environments, the economy has maintained an overall stable and moderately positive development trend, and the economic growth rate is expected to remain stable6.7%The level is slightly lower than that of the first half of last year6.9%Compared to last year's entire year6.8%Better than market expectations.
From a fundamental perspective, the economy was mainly supported by three factors in the first half of the year: firstly, exports remained at a relatively high level. Before this year5In months, the cumulative export growth rate denominated in US dollars is13.3%This is2013The highest level of the same period since the beginning of the year. Although net exports in the first quarterGDPThe contribution is negative, and there are frequent issues with the project20A rare deficit in recent years, but export growth has maintained resilience in economic growth by driving the upstream and downstream industrial chains.
Secondly, real estate investment is at a high level. Before this year5Over the past month, the cumulative year-on-year increase in real estate development investment10.2%Yes, it is2014The highest level of the same period since the beginning of the year. The cumulative year-on-year growth of other expenses, mainly land purchase fees, in the investment amount of real estate development52.2%Yes, it is2010The highest level of the same period since the beginning of the year. The deferred payment of land purchase fees has increased this value and effectively compensated for the year-on-year negative growth of construction and installation expenses, enabling the growth rate of real estate development investment to remain in double digits.
Thirdly, the prosperity of industrial production is still in a relatively high range. Before this year5Over the past month, the cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial added value6.9%Similarly, it is2014The highest level of the same period since the beginning of the year, which is in line with the official manufacturing industryPMIAlways maintain consistency within the expansion range. After the disappearance of the Spring Festival factor and the lifting of production restrictions, enterprises have been operating at full capacity, and industrial enterprise profits have maintained double-digit growth rates, driving the continuous rebound of manufacturing investment growth since the second quarter.
Supported by fundamentals, plus4moon23After the Politburo meeting, the marginal relaxation of policies to some extent offset the slowdown in infrastructure investment growth and consumer goods retail growth, keeping economic growth at a steady level in the first half of the year. Production indicators, efficiency indicators, structural indicators, and livelihood indicators continued to improve.
In the second half of the year, we must remain vigilant against potential negative impacts. Firstly, we need to pay attention to the trade friction between China and the United States. Although there have been three rounds of intensive negotiations between China and the United States, it has still not been possible to avoid Trump wielding the stick of tariffs. From Japan's experience back then, this may be a prolonged process. In addition, since the beginning of this year, the resonance of global recovery has been suspended, and the growth of Europe, Japan, and emerging economies has begun to slow down, which is expected to have a negative impact on China's exports in the second half of the year.
Secondly, real estate investment is likely to slow down. In the first half of this year, real estate regulation policies are still being intensified.5Since the beginning of the month, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development has held talks with some local governments7The ministry specifically criticized by name30The chaos in the real estate market in a city indicates that real estate regulation will continue to remain strict and tight. At present, the total inventory of real estate in China has dropped to a low level, and various regions have increased their efforts to promote land. However, due to the constraints of price limits, the willingness of enterprises to develop is weak, and the completion speed has even shown negative growth. After the factor of deferred payment of land purchase fees subsides, real estate investment may find it difficult to maintain double-digit growth, thereby dragging down overall investment performance.
Finally, the business prosperity may experience a decline. Under the policy guidance of strict supervision, the process of non-standard to standard conversion and off balance sheet return is not smooth. In the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of new social financing showed negative growth, accompanied by a significant expansion of credit spreads. The financing channels for private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises have significantly narrowed, and bond defaults and equity pledge liquidation events continue to occur, which may erode the production and operation of real enterprises in the second half of the year.
In the face of the complex economic situation at home and abroad, the policy has begun to pre-adjust and fine-tune.6moon20The executive meeting of the State Council proposed“We should adhere to a prudent and neutral monetary policy and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and financial stability.”and introduced a series of easing policies, including targeted downgrades. Last week's second-quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee also stressed the need“Grasp the strength and rhythm of structural deleveraging, promote stable and healthy economic development, and stabilize market expectations.”。
In the current situation, the marginal easing of monetary policy can alleviate the tight credit situation to some extent, and there is still room for fiscal policy to exert force,PPPThe role of the economy has also recovered. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is approaching the bottom, and a series of policies to expand domestic demand will stimulate the rebound of retail sales of consumer goods, and the economy can still be maintained in the second half of the year.6.5%around the level, the year is expected to close6.6%Left and right. The economy remains resilient and there is no need for excessive pessimism.
(from the mobile phone Minnan network)
