GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters - the trend of economic recovery becoming more apparent

Core Tip: The Chinese economy continues to recover and improve, and high-quality development is steadily advancing. On October 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that according to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product for the first three quarters was 91302.7 billion yuan,

The Chinese economy continues to recover and improve, and high-quality development is steadily advancing. On October 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that according to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product for the first three quarters was 91302.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year at constant prices. By quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, 6.3% in the second quarter, and 4.9% in the third quarter. From a month on month perspective, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.3% in the third quarter.

In the first three quarters, the national economy continued to recover and improve, and high-quality development was solidly promoted, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual development goals, "said Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics.

In the first three quarters, the national economy withstood the risks and challenges from abroad and the downward pressure brought by multiple domestic factors, and overall continued to recover and improve. Especially from the perspective of the third quarter, the overall trend of economic recovery is becoming more apparent, with positive changes in multiple fields and indicators.

The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, which is lower than the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter, mainly due to the increase in the comparison base last year. ”Sheng Laiyun stated that if the impact of the base is deducted, the two-year average growth rate in the third quarter of this year is 4.4%, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the second quarter; From the perspective of month on month growth rate, the third quarter saw a growth of 1.3%, which was 0.8 percentage points faster than the second quarter, and the growth continued to recover and improve. Both the year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter and the cumulative growth rate in the first three quarters rank among the top in major international economies.

The employment situation has improved, and overall prices have remained stable. In the first three quarters, the average urban survey unemployment rate in China was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year, and it improved month by month. In September, CPI increased by 0.2% month on month and remained unchanged year-on-year; The decline in PPI has narrowed for three consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% in September, nearly 3 percentage points narrower than the lowest point in June.

This year, the world economy has experienced a downward trend in volatility and an overall contraction in external demand. In addition, our foreign trade has maintained high growth in previous years, with a relatively high base. We were originally worried about a significant decline in foreign trade this year, but from the actual operating situation, the decline in the third quarter has significantly narrowed, better than expected, providing important support for the stable recovery of the economy, "said Sheng Laiyun. In terms of agriculture, although the summer grain production has been slightly reduced due to unfavorable natural conditions, the autumn grain production situation is good, and it is preliminarily expected that this year's grain production may reach a new historical high.

Since the beginning of this year, high-quality development has been solidly promoted. In the first three quarters, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.4%, and the "new three types" of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic cells continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum. Resident income has steadily increased, with the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents growing by 5.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, higher than the GDP growth rate. The growth of corporate profits is also improving.

“整体上看，在稳增长政策发力及经济内生修复动力共同作用下，三季度GDP增速达4.9%，超过市场普遍预期。特别是体现实际经济复苏强度的两年平均增速达到4.4%，明显高于二季度3.3%的水平，显示三季度经济复苏动能转强。”东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。

前三季度，国内生产总值同比增长5.2%，为完成全年5%左右的预期目标打下坚实基础。“初步测算，如果要完成全年预期目标，四季度只要增长4.4%以上，就可以保障完成全年5%左右的预期目标。从这个角度来讲，我们对完成全年预期目标是非常有信心的。”盛来运说。

Information source: China Economic Net