5.3%！ Eight major changes in the second half of the year
Eight key points of this article:
1. From the demand side, domestic demand consumption and investment in the first half of the year were supported by the "dual" and "two new" fiscal policies, such as ultra long term special treasury bond and local government special debt, and foreign demand exports were supported by the "rush to export" and "rush to re export" during the tariff suspension period;
2. In the second half of the year,Due to the early implementation of stock policies and the end of the tariff suspension period, there are hidden concerns about both domestic and foreign demand, and further efforts are needed to increase policies;
3、The important reason for the significant temperature difference between macro data and micro perception is the long-term low price operation,The pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" and "increasing quantity and decreasing price" continues. Long term low price operation is not conducive to the recovery of market micro subjects' perception and expectations,And it will intensify the 'involution' competition;
4. The author suggests that all regions and departments should make expanding domestic demand their top priority in the next stage of work. Intensify efforts to expand and implement the "dual" construction and "two new" work,Focus on solving the problem of overdue payments.Accelerate the implementation of the deployment of the April Politburo meetingNew policy oriented financial instrumentsKey supportConsumption of services such as education, sports, cultural tourism, etcInfrastructure direction in related fields andArtificial Intelligence, Digital EconomyWaiting for the direction of new quality productivity;
5. From the supply side perspective, in the second half of the year, we will comprehensively rectify the "involution style" competition,Promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity will be fully launched；
6. This time to reduce production capacity,Not excess capacity, but backward capacity.(On July 1, 2025, the sixth meeting of the 20th Central Finance and Economics Committee made it clear that "promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity"; on November 10, 2015, the eleventh meeting of the 18th Central Finance and Economics Leading Group pointed out "To promote the effective resolution of excess capacity");
7. Market players, especially private enterprises, need to focus on the national and industry standards issued in recent years, and take the initiative to benchmark standards to achieve equipment updates and product upgrades;
8. Work such as "standardizing government procurement and bidding" and "standardizing local investment promotion" will be further implemented in the second half of the year.
On July 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released data, preliminary accounting, the first half of the GDP of 66053.6 billion yuan, at constant prices,year-on-year growth of 5.3 percent.On a quarterly basis, GDP in the first quarter grew by 5.4 per cent year-on-year,It grew 5.2 percent in the second quarter.On a year-over-year basis, GDP grew by 1.1 in the second quarter.
In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 3117.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7 percent over the same period last year; the added value of the secondary industry was 23905 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3 percent; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 39031.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5 percent.
Demand side: the first half of domestic demand by the "double" "two new" support, external demand by the "grab export" "grab re-export" support, the second half of the need for incremental policy to further strengthen.
From the demand side,In the first half of the domestic demand consumption and investment by ultra-long-term special government bonds and local government special bonds and other fiscal policies to increase the "double" "two new" support, external exports by the tariff suspension period of "grab exports" "grab re-export" support.In the second half of the year, due to the pre-stock policy forward force, the end of the tariff suspension period, both internal and external demand are hidden worries, the need for incremental policy to further strengthen.
First, the consumer side by the consumer goods for new policy led to a rebound in consumption, but long-term or deposit overdraft effect.In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 24545.8 billion yuan,year-on-year growth of 5.0 percent.Retail sales of consumer goods in cities and towns were 21305 billion yuan, up 5.0 percent year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods in villages were 3240.9 billion yuan, up 4.9 percent.
Among them, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, communication equipment and furniture supported by the consumer goods trade-in policy increased by 30.7, 25.4, 24.1 and 22.9 respectively.
In 2025, a total of 300 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be arranged to support the exchange of consumer goods, and 162 billion yuan of funds have been issued by the end of June.Although there is still 138 billion yuan of financial support in the second half of the year, there is an overdraft effect on consumer goods (especially durable consumer goods), and the effectiveness of the policy may weaken.
Secondly, the investment side by the equipment renewal policy to drive manufacturing investment to maintain a high level, "double" policy to support infrastructure investment. However, because the stock policy is forward, the follow-up needs to be followed by incremental policy. In the first half of the year, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) was 24865.4 billion billion yuan, up 2.8 percent year on year. By sector, infrastructure investment rose 4.6 per cent year-on-year, manufacturing investment rose 7.5 per cent and real estate development investment fell 11.2 per cent.
In 2025, ultra-long-term special government bonds arranged a total of 800 billion yuan to support the "two-fold" construction, as of the end of June has issued a list of all projects; ultra-long-term special government bonds arranged a total of 200 billion yuan to support equipment renewal, as of the end of June has arranged funds of about 173 billion yuan, the use of progress of 86.5 per cent.
Finally, the export end by the tariff suspension period of "grab exports" "grab re-export" support, the second half of the year or difficult to maintain.In the first half of the year, the total import and export of goods was 21787.6 billion billion yuan, up 2.9 percent year on year.Among them, exports of 13000 billion billion yuan, an increase of 7.2.
August 1, the United States "reciprocal tariff" after the end of the suspension period, the world will usher in a new round of tariff storm, so the suspension period of "grab exports" "grab re-export" is difficult to maintain, and "grab exports" "grab re-export" also has an overdraft effect on future demand.
From the price indicators, prices long-term low operation, "supply strong demand weak" "volume increase price reduction" pattern continued.According to the data, in the first half of 2025, consumer price CPI, which represents the downstream, fell 0.1 percent year-on-year, and producer price PPI, which represents the upper and middle reaches, fell 2.8 percent year-on-year, well below the full-year target.
This is also an important reason for the large temperature difference between macro data and micro somatosensory.In the first half of the year, real GDP at constant prices grew by 5.3 per cent year-on-year, but nominal GDP, including price changes, was about 4.3 per cent.The long-term low price operation is not conducive to the market micro-subject body feeling and expected repair, and will intensify the "inner volume" competition.
From the perspective of the leading economic indicator PMI, the PMI recorded 49.7 in June, which was in the contraction range for three consecutive months, indicating that the current economy is still under downward pressure.The economy bottomed out in the first quarter of 2024, with a PMI of 49.1 per cent, 50.2 per cent and 50.5 per cent from January to March. In the second quarter, it fell into contraction again, with PMI of 49.0 per cent, 49.5 per cent and 49.7 per cent from April to June.
On the whole, although the economy achieved 5.3 per cent year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, higher than the expected target of about 5 per cent for the whole year, there are hidden worries about both domestic and foreign demand in the second half of the year.
The author suggests that all regions and departments should take expanding domestic demand as the primary task in the next stage.In terms of fiscal policy, we will continue to speed up the issuance and use of 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds and 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds that have been arranged for this year,To strengthen the expansion of the implementation of the "two-fold" construction and "two new" work, focus on solving the problem of arrears of accounts,Leave room for subsequent incremental fiscal policy increases.
In terms of monetary policy, we will speed up the implementation of the new policy-oriented financial instruments deployed at the Politburo meeting in April, focusing on supporting the direction of infrastructure in education, sports, cultural tourism and other service consumption-related areas, as well as the direction of new quality productivity such as artificial intelligence and digital economy, and expand domestic demand with "real money and silver" policy measures.
Supply side: comprehensive regulation of "internal volume" competition, to promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity will be fully opened
As written above, the long-term low price operation is not conducive to the market micro-body sense and expected repair, and will intensify the "inner volume" competition.On July 1, the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee was held to show the sword to the "inner volume" competition.
The meeting studied issues such as promoting the construction of a unified national market and the high-quality development of the marine economy. In the part of promoting the construction of a unified national market in depth, the following six major work guidelines have been clarified:
1. It is necessary to focus on key and difficult points, govern low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, and guide enterprises to improve product quality,Promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity;
2、Standardize government procurement and bidding,Strengthen the fairness review of the winning results;
3、Standardize local investment attraction,strengthen the information disclosure of attracting investment;
4、着力推动内外贸一体化发展，畅通出口转内销路径，培育一批内外贸优质企业；
5、持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动，健全有利于市场统一的财税体制、统计核算制度和信用体系；
6、引导干部树立和践行正确政绩观，完善高质量发展考核体系和干部政绩考核评价体系。
其中，“要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出”排序第一，凸显重要性。
自2024年12月中央经济工作会议部署综合整治“内卷式”竞争工作以来，推动落后产能有序退出已在不断加力。
2025年2月，《求是》杂志发表的习近平总书记文章《经济工作必须统筹好几对重要关系》中指出，“要坚持供需两侧协同发力、动态平衡，持续深化供给侧结构性改革，有进有退、有保有压，增强供给与需求的适配性、平衡性”。
十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会，国家发改委主任郑栅洁表示，“我们将分行业出台具体方案，推动落后低效产能退出，扩大中高端产能供给，让供给侧更好地适应市场需求的变化”。
2025年2月10日，国务院常务会议指出，“要坚持从供需两侧发力，标本兼治化解重点产业结构性矛盾等问题，促进产业健康发展和提质升级。要优化产业布局、强化标准引领、推进整合重组，推动落后低效产能退出，增加高端产能供给”。
2025年5月20日，国家发改委召开5月份新闻发布会国家发改委政策研究室副主任、委新闻发言人李超表示，“优化产业布局，遏制落后产能扩张。发挥好质量、标准支撑作用，以市场化方式促进兼并重组，加快淘汰炼油、钢铁等行业的落后和低效产能，科学论证煤化工、氧化铝等行业新增产能项目。加强行业自律，引导新能源汽车、光伏企业注重技术研发”。
此外，市场主体需理解，此次去产能，并非过剩产能，而是落后产能。
2015年11月10日，十八届中央财经领导小组第十一次会议研究经济结构性改革和城市工作，同样作为上一轮去产能的起点，指出“要促进过剩产能有效化解”。随后12月的中央经济工作会议明确“三去一降一补”是供给侧结构性改革的核心内容。
而此次二十届中央财经委员会第六次会议明确为“推动落后产能有序退出”，落后并非过剩，且强调依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争与有序退出。
故对市场主体而言，去产能并不可怕，长期“内卷式”恶性竞争，劣币驱逐良币才可怕。数据显示，2015年启动供给侧结构性改革去产能后，钢铁行业利润率由2015年的0.9%，到2016年回升至2.9%，2017年达到5.3%；煤炭行业利润率由2015的1.7%，到2016年回升至5.2%，2017年达到11.9%。
笔者建议，市场主体，尤其是民营企业需重点关注近年发布的国家及行业标准，主动对标标准实现设备更新与产品升级。在各类标准中，两新工作（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）所制修订的294项国家标准是重中之重。
2025年2月10日，国家发改委发文《2024年大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新工作取得显著成效》指出，“2024年和2025年‘两新’领域计划制定修订关键核心国家标准294项，截至目前已发布168项。设备更新方面，出台能耗限额、设备能效、污染物和碳排放等国家标准81项，倒逼高污染、高耗能、高风险设备更新换代，加快淘汰落后产能”。
破除“内卷式”竞争除规范企业行为外，也需规范政府行为，中央财经委员会第六次会议强调“规范政府采购和招标投标”“规范地方招商引资”与“引导干部树立和践行正确政绩观”，以上工作亦将在下半年进一步落实。
信息来源：正和岛（公众号）
