China's auto market is expected to retail 22.94 million vehicles in 2024

On January 2, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association Branch, issued a document on his official account to predict that the national car market will show a U-shaped growth trend in 2024. In the second half of the year, the policy strength is super strong. It is estimated that the retail sales of the car market throughout the year will be 22.94 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%. If the old for new policy is maintained at last year's level, it is expected that the overall subsidy funding demand for scrapped updates and old for new will exceed 200 billion yuan, far exceeding the historical subsidy peak. Cui Dongshu predicts that the retail sales of 23.4 million vehicles in the domestic car market will increase by 2% year-on-year in 2024; The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 13.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 57%, setting a new historical high.

Cui Dongshu also made a prediction for the car market in 2025, expecting a domestic retail growth rate of 2%, showing a trend of low at first and high later. It is expected to have a negative growth rate of 3% in the first quarter of 2025, with strong growth in the fourth quarter. In 2025, the direction of scrapping updates and trade in policies will remain unchanged. It is recommended to broaden the scope of indicators and strive to include commercial vehicles such as pickup trucks in the support scope. From January to November 2024, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China was 47%, with a penetration rate of 52.1% in November, an increase of 12 percentage points compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy will continue to increase by 2025.

Information source: Jijingwang