Is the construction machinery industry recovering and the excavator industry welcoming the trend?
By the end of 2019, with favorable infrastructure policies, the industry's optimistic attitude towards the construction machinery industry had become mainstream. After entering the fourth quarter of 2019, sales of construction machinery increased beyond expectations, cement prices and quantities both rose, and macro rules for the use of special bonds relaxed. Various predictions about cyclical recovery began to emerge.
So, what is the situation of cyclical recovery? What development opportunities will the construction machinery industry face in 2020? Which companies have the most growth potential? Many industry insiders predict that construction machinery will continue to rise in 2020, maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook.
2019: Outstanding performance of construction machinery
According to industry statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 host manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics from January to November 2019 sold over 215000 units of various types of mining machinery products, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Excavator sales have reached a new high, exceeding the total of the previous year in the first 11 months. Leading enterprises Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology, and XCMG Machinery performed outstandingly in the first three quarters, with a significant increase in net profit.
Regarding the recovery and growth of the construction machinery sector in 2019, Man Zaipeng, an engineering machinery analyst at Guoyuan Securities, said, "The main reason is still relatively strong demand, including infrastructure and real estate investment. Although the growth rate is not very high, the absolute volume is very large, and it has indeed reached a seasonal cycle. Also, machines have replaced labor. We have always talked about machines replacing labor, and excavators, cranes, and other types of machines are also a substitute for labor
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2019, investment in infrastructure such as transportation, warehousing, and postal services, water conservancy, environment, and public facility management, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased by 4.7%, 3.5%, and 0.4% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, investment in railways led by the central government in transportation continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8% from January to September; Local government led highway investment increased by 7.9% year-on-year.
2020: High prosperity leaders are favored
Facing the upcoming year of 2020, multiple institutions have predicted that the construction machinery industry will continue to experience high prosperity. Man Zaipeng said, "In terms of growth rate, it has become more difficult to maintain the growth rate of 2019, but after all, the base is large, and in terms of absolute volume and prosperity, it should still maintain a relatively high position
中信建投机械首席分析师吕娟称，在基建上行、地产韧性的加持下，以及环保升级、治超、机龄等因素推动下，判断工程机械行业2020年还将保持正增长。
渤海证券则表示，未来五年，将是工程机械行业提质增效、转型升级发展的机遇期，是国际化发展的机遇期，随着经济下行压力加大，基建补短板力度有望持续加大，同时“一带一路”建设、人力成本的不断攀升以及环保要求提高也将继续支撑挖掘机等工程机械销量稳步提升。
“国产龙头份额持续提升贯穿本轮周期。”东兴证券行业研究表示，自主品牌挖掘机的崛起是最近十余年行业变化的重要趋势，随着三一、徐工等国产品牌的崛起，国产挖掘机品牌具备较大服务和产品优势，未来市占率有望继续提升。
满在朋也表示，从投资角度而言，龙头企业的性价比还是很高的。“这几家企业从竞争力等方面说具备世界顶级水平，然后估值现在相对比较便宜，市盈率2019年可能也就在10倍左右，2020年可能都不到10倍。”
增长核心：行业存量更新
在新一轮复苏周期中，存量更新也被认为是工程机械行业的核心增长需求之一。中金公司在近期调研多家工程机械类公司后表示，存量市场带来的需求成为主流，“企业预计2020年工程机械继续向上，但也提出行业已进入存量市场时代，更新替换需求占比60%”。
实际上，多家机构也较为看好挖掘机产业。“从周期的角度，一般挖掘机是稍微领先一点的，然后起重机和混凝土机械比挖掘机稍微滞后一点，大概有个一年到两年的一个时差。”满在朋表示。
方正证券指出，在国内外挖掘机均是工程机械价值量第一的品类，研究清楚挖掘机，对于探究龙头企业业绩增长意义重大。
满在朋则认为，如果看挖掘机行业总销量，整体上是看平的。“大概可能是正负10%或者基本和2019年持平，但是结构上会有很大的变化。第一个是内资品牌的份额往上走;第二个是龙头企业的份额在往上，同样是内资品牌，我们可以看到2019年三一、徐工的增速比其他品牌的增速还是要高，集中度会提升。在吨位结构上，内资品牌在大吨位上面的份额可能会增长的更快一些。”
重点公司
三一重工
推荐理由：1.基建地产等投资等需求托底，主力产品持续爆发;2.需求提振叠加降本控费，多项业绩水平创历史新高;3.更新需求托底，挖掘机需求具备强支撑。(东兴机械军工研究团队)
恒立液压
推荐理由：1.挖掘机液压油缸龙头地位稳固;2.泵阀及马达配套主流机型，助力长期成长;3.工程机械液压市场空间广阔，铸件产能扩张提升泵阀份额。(东兴机械军工研究团队)
艾迪精密
推荐理由：1.挖掘机液压油缸龙头地位稳固;2.公司盈利能力稳健，经营性现金流显著好转;3.非公开发行项目过会，助力产能瓶颈缓解。(东兴机械军工研究团队)
浙江鼎力
推荐理由：1.高空作业平台行业国产品牌市占率逐步提高;2.国内高空作业平台龙头，具备海内外渠道优势、盈利能力突出;3.加速转型国内市场及2020年新臂式放量，打开成长新空间。 (国金证券)
徐工机械
推荐理由：1.旗下徐工信息完成增资扩股，保持高速增长;2.徐工信息、徐工有限、徐工机械铸就徐工品牌强大竞争力;3.2020年基建投资增速在8%以上，助推工程机械行业整体增长。 (中信建投证券)
中联重科
推荐理由：1.核心产品受益于基建及地产后周期，股权激励凸显稳健增长信心;2.起重机械与混凝土机械等后周期品种仍有增长空间;3.公司核心产品竞争力提升。 (华泰证券)
信息来源：华泰证券
Editor He Yang of this website/Organizing
