The prosperity index of China's agricultural machinery market in December 2018 was 27.8% (see attached figure)

　　The China Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association released2018year12Monthly Prosperity Index of China's Agricultural Machinery Market(AMI)for27.8%, month on month increase7.2Percentage point, year-on-year increase0.3One percentage point. From a month on month perspective,6In a first level index, except for the agricultural machinery subsidy index and popularity index, which showed a downward trend, all others showed an upward trend. Among them, the manager confidence index had the highest increase, which is14.9One percentage point.

　　The China Agricultural Machinery Circulation Association released2018year12Monthly Prosperity Index of China's Agricultural Machinery Market(AMI)for27.8%, month on month increase7.2Percentage point, year-on-year increase0.3One percentage point. From a month on month perspective,6In a first level index, except for the agricultural machinery subsidy index and popularity index, which showed a downward trend, all others showed an upward trend. Among them, the manager confidence index had the highest increase, which is14.9One percentage point. From a year-on-year perspective,6Except for the inventory index and manager confidence index, all other indicators in the first level index show a downward trend, with the efficiency index showing the highest decline23.8个百分点。目前，6个一级指数均位于不景气区间。本月起，植保机指数暂不对外发布。

　　特约分析师张华光认为：12month,AMI虽然仍处于较低的景气度区间，但毕竟止住了2018年下半年持续下滑的脚步，环比、同比均有所抬头，双双上扬。意味着农机市场在跌入谷底后，步入恢复性增长的轨道，即使这种增长幅度不大，但具有重要的象征性意义。六个一级指数“四升两降”，尤其是经理人信心指数的大幅度攀升，发生在人气指数依然低迷的情势下，说明经理人对已经开始的2019年农机市场的感性判断和期待，同时也受制造企业促销政策的刺激。在六个二级指数中，除运输机械指数挺进景气区间外，其它指数均处于深度不景气区间，提示2018year12月份的农机市场依然处于低迷状态。遵循农机市场发展规律，已经开始的1月份，依然处于市场淡季，加之春节将近，我们判断AMI依然会处于较低的景气区间。绝大多数一、二、三级指数仍然会深陷不景气的泥潭，不否认个别指数逆势增长，但这种增长难以改变整体市场的基本走势。

Su Hongxing/recommend