Innovative development vitality enhances economic stability and improvement - Overview of the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2025
On August 4, 2025, the China Machinery Industry Federation held an information conference on the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2025 in Beijing. Vice President of China Machinery Industry Federation, Luo Junjie, released the economic operation of the machinery industry in the first half of 2025. The information release is now published as follows for your reference and learning.
Innovative development vitality enhances stable and positive economic operation
——Overview of the Economic Operation of the Machinery Industry in the First Half of 2025
In the first half of the year, in the face of a more severe and complex external environment, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the machinery industry conscientiously implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, withstood pressure, Facing difficulties, actively acting, moving forward, effectively responding to risks and challenges, economic operations are stable and improving, product production and sales are growing steadily, foreign trade shows resilience, and innovation vitality, new quality productivity is actively developing, and industrial upgrading and high-quality development have achieved remarkable results.
Looking ahead to the whole year, strategic opportunities and risk challenges coexist, and uncertain and unpredictable factors increase. However, the continuous efforts of macro and industrial policies, as well as the acceleration of various reform measures, will continue to benefit the operation and development of the machinery industry. The entire industry has confidence in responding to risk challenges and maintaining a stable and positive operating trend.
1、 Basic characteristics of industry operation
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the economic operation of the machinery industry started well and showed a positive trend in the first quarter. However, in the second quarter, the industry experienced some fluctuations due to external factors such as US tariff policies, but overall remained stable and demonstrated resilience. The main economic indicators of the machinery industry grew rapidly in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target.
（1） Stable and elevated position as a pillar of the industry
As of the end of June, the number of enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry reached 136000, an increase of 6000 compared to the same period last year, accounting for 26.2% of the national industry and an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year; The total assets reached 40.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, accounting for 22.0% of the country's industrial sector and an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
（2） Stable growth in added value
In the first half of the year, the added value of enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.6 and 2 percentage points higher than the national industrial and manufacturing industries, playing a positive role in stabilizing the economy and boosting the industrial economy. The added value of the five major categories of the national economy mainly involved in the machinery industry has achieved year-on-year growth. Among them, the automotive and electrical machinery industries achieved double-digit growth, with growth rates of 11.3% and 12.2% respectively, leading the growth of the machinery industry; The growth rates of the general equipment, specialized equipment, and instrumentation industries were 8.3%, 3.8%, and 7.6%, respectively.
（3） The production and sales of products are stable and improving
Under the combined effect of the stock policy and the new round of "two new" policies, the domestic market demand has improved, driving the overall production and sales situation of the machinery industry to be better than last year. In the first half of the year, among the 122 key monitored products, the output of 84 products increased year-on-year, accounting for 68.9%, an increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year; The output of 38 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 31.1%.
The main characteristics of key product production and sales are: firstly, stable growth in automobile production and sales. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million respectively, an increase of 12.5% and 11.4% year-on-year. Secondly, the production and sales of electrical and electronic products are thriving. In the first half of the year, the output of generator sets increased by 60.5% year-on-year, and the output of solar cells increased by 18.2% year-on-year. The output of representative products in the transmission and distribution fields such as transformers, high-voltage switchgear, and wires and cables showed a good growth trend. The third is the continued growth of processing equipment, with a clear trend towards intelligent upgrading. The production of metal cutting machine tools, metal forming machine tools, and industrial robots increased by 13.5%, 10.4%, and 35.6%, respectively. The growth rate of CNC machine tools was higher than the overall level, and industrial automation control systems grew rapidly. Fourthly, the overall market for construction machinery is stabilizing. In the first half of the year, a total of 121000 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, of which domestic sales increased by 22.9% year-on-year. Fifth, the overall production of agricultural machinery has slowed down, and harvesting machinery has achieved a seasonal slight increase. Sixth, metallurgical equipment, petrochemical equipment, environmental protection equipment and other products are affected by industry adjustments by users, resulting in production fluctuations.
（4） Low growth of fixed assets investment
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the fixed assets investment in the machinery industry in the first half of the year increased by 3.8% year on year, which is higher than the national investment growth rate (2.8%), but lower than the average level of industry (10.3%) and manufacturing (7.5%) in the same period. The mechanical industry mainly involves five major categories of investment in the national economy, with investment in general equipment and the automotive industry increasing by 16.6% and 22.2% respectively, serving as the "dual engines" driving investment growth in the mechanical industry; The investment in the specialized equipment industry increased by 6.2% and remained stable; The investment in the electrical machinery and instrumentation industries decreased by 7.8% and 15.6% respectively.
（5） Economic benefits stabilize and improve
In the first half of the year, enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry achieved a revenue of 1.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, which was 5.3 percentage points higher than the national industrial growth rate; The total profit reached 791.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with a growth rate 11.2 percentage points higher than that of the national industrial sector. The proportion of operating revenue and total profit to the national industrial sector was 22.9% and 23.0%, respectively, an increase of 1.1 and 2.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The operating revenue profit margin was 5.2%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year, slightly higher than the national industrial average.
（6） The prosperity index is stable with an upward trend
The prosperity index of the machinery industry continued to operate within the prosperous range in the first half of the year, with a steady increase and overall better than the previous year's level. In June, the prosperity index of the machinery industry was 106.9, 3.9 points higher than the same period last year, indicating that the overall economic operation of the industry is stable and improving. Among the six classification indices, five are higher than the critical value, among which the product index is 105.9, which is 3.5 points higher than the same period last year, reflecting the continued positive trend of the production side; The industry index is 109.4, which is 3.9 points higher than the same period last year, reflecting that the industry's development continues to improve; The investment index is 109.4, 0.1 points lower than the same period last year, reflecting the continued high-level slowdown trend of investment; The foreign trade index was 104.2, 0.9 points higher than the same period last year, reflecting the resilience of foreign trade in the face of severe and complex external conditions and increasing uncertainty; The economic efficiency index is 107.0, which is 11.7 points higher than the same period last year, reflecting a significant improvement in the industry's economic benefits. The price index is below the critical value of 98.1 and 0.1 points lower than the same period last year, indicating that product prices are still in a downward trend.
2、 Highlights in the development of the industry
In the first half of the year, the machinery industry adhered to technological innovation and green development, accelerated the promotion of new industrialization and industrial transformation and upgrading, accelerated the release of innovative vitality, continued to strengthen new driving forces and advantages, and achieved positive results in high-quality development.
（1） Enhancing the driving role of emerging industries
The driving role of strategic emerging industries in the development of the machinery industry continues to strengthen. In the first half of the year, the strategic emerging industries related to the machinery industry achieved a growth rate of 1.3 and 5.4 percentage points higher in operating revenue and total profit than the entire machinery industry, accounting for 82.8% and 82.6% of the machinery industry respectively, an increase of 1 and 3.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of operating income and total profit of related industries such as new energy equipment, energy-saving and environmental protection equipment, and high-end equipment manufacturing is significantly higher than the overall level of the machinery industry.
（2） The pace of green transformation continues to accelerate
The new energy vehicle market maintains rapid growth. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, an increase of 41.4% and 40.3% year-on-year. The market penetration rate reached 44.3%, setting a new historical high for the same period. The rapid development of clean energy equipment contributes to the construction of a new energy system. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of wind turbine production exceeded 70%, accounting for more than half of the total output of power generation units; Among the newly added power generation installations, wind and photovoltaic power generation installations account for as high as 89.9%. The green transformation of traditional industries has achieved significant results. In the first half of the year, the production of electric forklifts accounted for 77.1% of all forklifts, and in June, the sales of electric loaders accounted for 25.4% of all loader sales.
（3） Foreign trade exports maintain rapid growth
In the first half of the year, facing a more severe and complex international environment and foreign trade situation, the machinery industry withstood the pressure and effectively responded, showing stable growth and resilience in foreign trade. According to customs data, in the first half of the year, the machinery industry completed a total import and export of goods worth 597.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. Among them, the import volume was 131.66 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; The export value was 465.94 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%. We achieved a trade surplus of 334.28 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%, accounting for 57.1% of the national goods trade surplus.
From the perspective of trading partners, the machinery industry maintains double-digit growth in exports to major economies. Exports to the "the Belt and Road" countries grew 23.9% year on year, exports to RCEP countries grew 16.7% year on year, exports to EU countries grew 12.3% year on year, and exports to ASEAN countries grew 24.2% year on year. In terms of key trading countries, exports to the United States amounted to 47.05 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%; Exports to Russia amounted to 20.29 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%; Maintain stable growth in Germany (11.6%), Japan (2.0%), and South Korea (5.3%); The export growth rate to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia is over 20%.
（4） Remarkable achievements in major technological equipment
In recent years, the machinery industry has focused on the high-quality development needs in fields such as energy, transportation, and chemical engineering, actively promoting collaborative innovation and conducting joint research and development. A batch of major technological equipment achieved new breakthroughs in the first half of the year, breaking through the bottleneck and providing solid equipment support for major engineering construction and industrial chain security. The entire industry chain of energy and power equipment, from "source grid load storage" to fourth generation nuclear power, has achieved independent controllability. The world's first 700 MW ultra supercritical circulating fluidized bed coal-fired power generation unit has been put into operation, pushing the efficiency of traditional coal-fired power units to a new height and marking a major breakthrough in China's clean coal-fired power equipment field; The first domestically produced F5 gas turbine project with high localization rate has been put into operation, marking the first successful application of China's independently developed F5 heavy-duty gas turbine; The world's largest single unit capacity impulse turbine runner and the first domestic 300 megawatt variable speed pumped storage unit have made breakthroughs, breaking the long-term technological monopoly of foreign countries and forming a collaborative innovation paradigm of "hydropower+pumped storage"; The acceptance and delivery of the world's first four nuclear main pumps for the "Linglong 1" nuclear reactor, the only fourth generation nuclear power technology thorium based molten salt reactor in the world, has been completed and is operating stably, forming a dual track technology route of "third-generation pressurized water reactor+fourth generation new reactor" and opening a new era of fourth generation nuclear power technology; The production of the world's largest single unit 17 MW direct drive floating offshore wind turbine marks a new breakthrough for China in the field of deep-sea offshore wind power equipment manufacturing. Equipment capability improvement under extreme working conditions. The world's highest altitude Jinsha River upstream Hubei ± 800 kV high-voltage direct current project has been completed, and the Hami Chongqing ± 800 kV high-voltage direct current transmission project has been put into operation, verifying the global leadership of transmission equipment and technology in high-altitude and Gobi environments; The first rolling cutter type rock excavation machine in China and the world's first variable diameter inclined shaft excavation machine have successfully penetrated a 50 degree inclined shaft, solving two world-class problems in hard rock tunnel excavation and complex inclined shaft construction, providing equipment support for major strategic projects such as deep mineral resource development and pumped storage energy in China.
3、 Difficulties in industry operation
In the first half of the year, the mechanical industry faced a more complex and severe environment, and there were still some difficulties and challenges in the operation of the industry. The foundation for stabilizing and improving still needs to be solid.
（1） Tightening external environment and increasing uncertainty
The global security situation is severe and complex. Geopolitical conflicts broke out in many places, one after another, the Russia-Ukraine conflict was postponed and unresolved, the situation in the Middle East continued to be tense, and the game between all parties intensified; Conflicts still exist in the India Pakistan region, and new unstable factors have emerged in the surrounding areas of our country. International trade is under pressure and uncertainty is increasing. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has continuously wielded the stick of tariffs and implemented unilateral trade protectionism measures, which have continued to intensify the impact on the global economic and trade situation and supply chain. There is still strong uncertainty in its tariff policies in the future. These factors overlap with each other and have multiple repeated and mixed impacts on the foreign trade of the machinery industry. In the special investigation, companies have provided feedback that since the second quarter, foreign buyers have been more cautious in ordering, and companies are also facing multiple risks of tariff fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations when accepting orders. In the second half of the year, 'stabilizing foreign trade' is facing pressure.
（2） The demand side is facing downward pressure and still needs to be consolidated
Affected by multiple factors, market demand has fluctuated, and the stabilization trend still needs to be consolidated. The manufacturing PMI remained below the critical value for four consecutive months in July, especially with the hand orders index and new export orders index consistently at low levels below the critical value. Mechanical enterprises also face the problem of insufficient orders. In the first half of the year, although the cumulative order amount of key contact enterprises in the machinery industry maintained growth, the growth rate significantly declined compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, especially in industries such as petrochemical general machinery, heavy mining machinery, agricultural machinery, and instrumentation, where the order amount decreased significantly. In the special survey, 66% of enterprises reported a problem of insufficient orders, with a decline in the growth rate of orders in hand, a majority of short orders, and a further intensification of the trend of shrinking export orders.
（3） The price continues to decline and the task of managing internal competition is heavy
In recent years, the prices of mechanical products have continued to decline, and since 2023, the ex factory price index of mechanical products has fluctuated by around 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the price situation in the machinery industry has remained severe, with factory prices decreasing by 2.1% from March to May and 2% in June, marking 29 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. The mechanical industry mainly involves five major categories of the national economy, and the ex factory prices have all decreased year-on-year.
（4） Large scale accounts receivable and long payback period
As of the end of June, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry reached 9.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, accounting for 35.0% of the total industrial accounts receivable in China; The average collection period for accounts receivable is 105.3 days, which is 35.5 days longer than the national industrial average. By industry, the growth rate of accounts receivable in industries such as internal combustion engines, electrical appliances, mechanical basic components, robots, and intelligent manufacturing exceeds the average growth rate of the machinery industry. The average payback period for accounts receivable in the engineering machinery, heavy mining, and instrumentation industries exceeds 130 days. A special investigation shows that in the first half of the year, 53.4% of enterprises' total accounts receivable increased year-on-year, 42.5% of enterprises' overdue accounts receivable increased year-on-year, and 39.9% of enterprises' total accounts receivable increased year-on-year.
4、 Prediction of the trend of the machinery industry in the second half of the year
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the machinery industry still faces many risks and challenges, with insufficient domestic demand and unstable external demand.From an external perspective,The overall international environment is tightening, geopolitical conflicts are frequent, tariff games are intensifying, and trade uncertainty is increasing. The global economic growth rate is declining, international market demand is shrinking, and international organizations are lowering their expectations for global economic and trade growth. The trade war provoked by the United States is still evolving, and there is strong uncertainty in the later tariff trends between China and the United States, as well as the tariff policies of the United States towards other trading entities.From a domestic perspective,The adverse effects brought about by changes in the external environment have increased, with market fluctuations, insufficient effective demand, and pressure on foreign trade exports. Structural contradictions in some industries have become prominent, price competition has compressed profit margins, and difficulties in recovering accounts have increased operational pressure, making it difficult for some enterprises to operate.
At the same time, it should be noted that macro policies and industrial policies continue to intensify and strengthen.From the Central Economic Work Conference to the Central Political Bureau meeting, policies and measures favorable to the machinery industry have been continuously released, and macro policies have become more proactive, sustained, and timely. The "two new" policies have expanded the scope and improved the quality, and promoted the "dual" construction with high quality. The issuance and use of government bonds have been accelerated, and efforts have been made to support technological innovation, boost consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade. In the near future, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment, focusing on enhancing high-quality supply capacity, optimizing the industry development environment, and promoting the industry to achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. Objective analysis shows that the basic trend of ensuring the long-term improvement and stable growth of the machinery industry has not changed, and the advantages of stable foundation, strong resilience, and great potential of the machinery industry have not changed. The endogenous driving force for industry development remains strong,The certainty of achieving high-quality development in the mechanical industry is constantly increasing.
Overall, the strategic opportunities and risks for the development of the machinery industry coexist, with favorable conditions outweighing unfavorable factors. Overall, it is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry will continue to maintain a stable and positive trend in the second half of the year. The growth rate of major economic indicators for the whole year will be around 5.5%, and foreign trade will remain basically stable.
In the second half of the year, the machinery industry will continue to adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the 20th Central Committee, and thoroughly implement the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Political Bureau. Meeting deployment, maintain strategic determination, strengthen confidence in victory, adhere to the principle of doing the word, actively respond to challenges, overcome difficulties, and work, complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, adhere to the guidance of scientific and technological innovation, accelerate industrial upgrading, cultivate and strengthen new quality productivity, solidly promote high-end, intelligent, green and integrated development, vigorously promote industry self-discipline, solidly promote new industrialization, strive to improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain supply chain, effectively promote domestic and international double cycles, and deal with external uncertainties with high-quality development certainty, achieve the successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan", lay a solid foundation for a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan", and contribute more to the promotion of high-quality development of the machinery industry and the construction of a manufacturing power.
Information source: Jijingwang
