The 'Half Year Report' of China's Economy in 2025 releases these signals

On July 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Half Year Report" on China's economy for 2025. Preliminary accounting,The gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 6605.36 billion yuan, calculated at constant prices,The year-on-year growth rate is 5.3%, the overall economic operation is stable and improving, production demand is steadily increasing, the employment situation is overall stable, residents' income continues to increase, new driving forces are growing and expanding, high-quality development has made new progress, and the overall social situation remains stable.

This is a highly valuable report card, "said Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, at today's press conference of the State Council Information Office, introducing the operation of the national economy in the first half of the year.

Main characteristics of economic operation in the first half of the year

The stable situation continues.A prominent feature of the first half of the year is the stable operation of the economy. From the perspective of observing the four major macroeconomic indicators, the growth is stable with a slight increase, and the main tone of stable economic operation has not changed.

The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3% year-on-year, with 5.4% in the first quarter and 5.2% in the second quarter. The growth rate in the first half of the year increased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the whole year. The GDP growth rate in the first half of last year and the whole year was both 5%.

The overall unemployment rate remains stable according to the survey. Since the beginning of this year, the monthly survey unemployment rate has fluctuated within the range of 5.0% to 5.4%, which is basically stable.

Prices are running at a low level and basically stable. Since the beginning of this year, there have been several months where CPI has decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. However, in June, it turned from negative to positive and increased by 0.1%. Among them, the core CPI in June has rebounded to 0.7%.

Basic balance of international payments. The import and export of goods reached a new high in the same period, and foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.2 trillion US dollars.

The pace of progress is firm.While maintaining stable economic operation, various regions are steadfastly promoting economic transformation and high-quality development. From the data, new achievements have been made in innovative development, coordinated development, green development, open development, and shared development.

Accumulation of new kinetic energy.Various regions should develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, increase the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and continue to maintain rapid development of new industries, new technologies, and new formats. In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech industries increased by 9.5% year-on-year. By 2024, the added value of the "three new" industries will account for about 18% of GDP, and new momentum is accumulating.

Smooth cycle improvement.Since the beginning of this year, in response to external challenges, China has placed greater emphasis on expanding and strengthening the domestic circulation, and has introduced a series of policies to support the expansion of domestic demand, promote production, and smooth circulation. According to statistical data, the flow of people, goods, and funds is improving. In the first half of the year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, which is the driving force behind growth. The economy is improving, with freight turnover increasing by 5.1% year-on-year and passenger turnover increasing by 4.9% in the first half of the year. The central bank has just released data showing that M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year at the end of June.

The Chinese economy maintains stable growth with support in the second half of the year

From the perspective of the second half of the year, although there is still a lot of uncertainty in the external environment and significant pressure for internal structural adjustment, overall judgment shows that China's economy will maintain stable growth with support in the second half of the year.

In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy withstood pressure, maintained stable growth, and maintained a steady and positive development trend, fully demonstrating its ability to withstand pressure and strong resilience. This development trend will be maintained. The GDP growth in the first half of the year has reached 5.3%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected target.

Over the years, the trend and practice of high-quality development have consolidated consensus, accumulated new momentum, promoted economic rebalancing, and improved the ability for sustainable economic development.From some practical factors, some leading indicators and positive factors are improving, showing a good momentum of high-quality development.

From a production perspective, after years of transformation, the service industry's contribution to economic growth is increasing. Among the three industries, the added value of the service industry accounted for 59.1% of GDP in the first half of the year, contributing over 60% to GDP growth. From the leading indicators in recent months, the service industry prosperity index has continued to maintain an expansion range of over 50%, indicating that the service industry has a good development momentum, and industries that account for a large proportion of economic growth will continue to maintain a good development momentum.

From the perspective of demand, consumption is the "ballast stone" and driving force of economic growth. In the first half of the year, the consumer market tends to be active, and in the second half of the year, it will continue to maintain a good development trend under the promotion of consumer policies, which will continue to play a "ballast" role in economic growth.

In terms of exports, we have implemented diversified opening-up to the outside world, built a diversified trade pattern, and reduced our trade dependence on a single country to single digits. In the first half of the year, China's imports and exports increased by 2.9%, which was achieved in the face of a huge external impact in the second quarter, demonstrating the resilience of trade.

From the perspective of the development of new driving forces, new driving forces continue to grow, and new industries, new formats, and new models continue to maintain a relatively fast growth rate. Based on these factors, it can be concluded that stable economic growth and high-quality development in China will be supported in the second half of the year.

Macro policies work together to safeguard the stable operation of the economy.Since the beginning of this year, China has implemented more proactive and proactive macro policies, which have played a supportive role. According to the requirements of the central government, relevant departments have accelerated the introduction of policies for the second half of the year, which will continue to play a key supporting role in the stable operation of the economy. At the same time, relevant departments have also stated that China has a rich policy "toolbox" and is strengthening policy reserves, which will be introduced in a timely manner according to market changes.

New quality productivity continues to accelerate cultivation and growth

Innovative achievements continue to emerge.Various regions continue to increase investment in innovation. Currently, China's R&D expenditure accounts for nearly 2.7% of GDP, surpassing the average level of the European Union and approaching the average level of OECD countries. A batch of innovative achievements are emerging. According to relevant departments' statistics, from January to May, the number of effective invention patent applications in China reached nearly 5 million, an increase of 12.8%. Since the beginning of this year, a series of technological innovations from Deepseek big models to robot marathons, from aerospace to unmanned driving, have attracted widespread attention both domestically and internationally.

Emerging industries are thriving.In the first half of the year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 9.5%. From January to May, the operating income of strategic emerging service industry enterprises above designated size increased by nearly 10%. These innovative achievements and industrial integration have driven the development of high-tech industries.

The digital economy is developing rapidly.Entering the digital age, artificial intelligence is accelerating its development, and data is also a factor of production. Various regions are accelerating the promotion of digital industrialization and industrial digitization. The added value of core industries in the digital economy accounts for about 10% of GDP, which is relatively high compared to developed countries internationally.

Green development improves quality and efficiency.Various regions are implementing the new development concept and accelerating the development of green industries. The well-known "new three types" represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar energy are all green industries that continue to maintain a high growth rate. Like new energy vehicles, the growth rate exceeded 30% in the first half of the year, and lithium batteries grew by 53.3%. These new energy industries continue to maintain rapid growth, truly making us feel that green mountains and clear waters are invaluable assets.

Industrial transformation and upgrading are accelerating.Since this year, all regions have continued to implement the renovation and transformation of traditional industries, especially with the support of the national "dual" and "new" policies, the pace of transformation has accelerated, and everyone is actively connecting with the "Internet plus+", "AI+" and "digital+" transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.

How to view the investment trend in the second half of the year

Although the nominal growth rate of investment fell back in the first half of the year, the actual growth rate of fixed assets investment was basically stable after deducting prices, andThe investment structure is improvingIn the first half of the year, manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of fixed assets investment, 1.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year; Investment in high-tech services increased by 8.6%, which was also significantly higher than the growth rate of fixed assets investment.

At this stage, the potential of fixed assets investment is still very large, and we should pay attention to mobilizing the enthusiasm of private investment.The slowdown in investment growth does not mean a contraction in investment space. At present, there is great potential for high-quality development investment, such as in the field of new quality productivity, urban renewal and transformation, and people's livelihood "filling gaps", which all require effective investment. To better meet the requirements of high-quality development, optimize investment layout, improve investment environment, fully mobilize the enthusiasm of private investment, and continuously promote healthy investment development.

Real estate is moving towards stabilizing and stopping the decline

According to statistical data, the relevant policy measures have shown significant effectiveness. Although there were some fluctuations in the real estate market in the first half of the year, overall it is moving towards stabilizing and stopping the decline. From the perspective of policy effectiveness, it mainly manifests in three aspects:

The market transaction volume has improved, and the year-on-year decline in sales of commercial housing has narrowed.In the first half of the year, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing in China decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and a decrease of 9.4 percentage points compared to the whole year last year; The sales amount of commercial housing decreased by 5.5%, with a greater narrowing compared to the same period last year, by 19.5 percentage points, and by 11.6 percentage points compared to the entire year last year. The transaction of commercial housing is still relatively active, especially the transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased compared to the same period last year.

The overall decline in market prices has narrowed, with some cities experiencing some price increases.Today we are simultaneously releasing housing price data for 70 large and medium-sized cities in June. From these price data, it can be seen that although the sales prices of newly-built residential properties in first, second, and third tier cities have fluctuated, the year-on-year decline has narrowed compared to the same period last year. Data shows that the year-on-year decline in sales prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first tier, second tier, and third tier cities narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month.

The funding sources in the real estate market have improved.Driven by the "whitelist" policy and the recovery of real estate market sales, the work of real estate enterprise bonds is progressing in an orderly manner. In the first half of the year, the decline in funds received by real estate development enterprises narrowed by 16.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and by 10.8 percentage points compared to the whole year last year. Among them, domestic loans increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while domestic loans decreased by about 6% last year. Clearing inventory has also achieved positive results. At the end of June, the area of unsold commercial housing in China decreased by 4.79 million square meters compared to the end of May, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Of course, we also need to see that both the sales area and sales amount of real estate are declining. Building a bottom for the real estate market requires a process, and it is normal for relevant indicators to fluctuate during the bottom building and transformation stages. This also requires greater efforts to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize.

Information source: Economic Daily (official account)