Interpretation of the current macroeconomic situation by the National Development and Reform Commission
The National Development and Reform Commission held a press conference for November on November 19, 2024. Let's take a look together——
Quick overview of key points
The economic performance in November and December is expected to continue the upward trend since October.
Regarding the next steps of the "Two New" policies, research has proposed policy measures to continue increasing support and expanding the scope of support in the future, which will be released in a timely manner after completing relevant procedures.
Accelerate the cracking of various market access "glass doors", "revolving doors", and "spring doors".
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the finance department issued two batches of central special investment of 9.05 billion yuan in 2025 to support the implementation of more than 2000 work for relief projects at the local level.
According to preliminary estimates, the special investment project of replacing relief with work issued in advance will attract more than 200000 people to work nearby and plan to distribute labor remuneration exceeding 2.7 billion yuan.
Regarding the Economic Situation
Since September, multiple economic indicators in China have shown marginal improvement. Has this trend been continued?
With the implementation and effectiveness of various policies, especially the package of incremental policies, the overall economic operation has maintained a positive trend since October. In September, multiple economic indicators in China showed marginal improvement, and in October, major economic indicators further improved. Positive factors in economic operation continue to increase.
With the continuous effectiveness of existing policies, the effective implementation of incremental policies, and the continuous release of policy combination effects, the economic operation in November and December is expected to continue the upward trend since October.
What are the new changes in China's economic growth potential and actual supporting conditions next year?
Looking ahead to 2025, there are still many favorable conditions and supporting factors for China's economic development.
From the perspective of development momentum,The more than 300 major reform measures deployed at the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China are accelerating their implementation, further deepening reform and opening up comprehensively, and will continue to stimulate the internal driving force and innovative vitality of the whole society; The strategy of innovation driven development is being deeply implemented, and the real economy and digital economy, advanced manufacturing industry and modern service industry are integrating and developing. Cultivating new quality productivity will form more new growth points and continue to promote the accelerated transformation of old and new driving forces.
From the perspective of market space,Our country has obvious advantages in the super large scale market, but there is still a huge market demand to be released. Taking the construction of new urbanization as an example, there is still a lot of room for improvement in China's overall urbanization rate. It is estimated that for every one percentage point increase in urbanization rate, it can stimulate trillion yuan of new investment demand and over 200 billion yuan of consumer demand. In addition, there is a huge demand for effective investment in areas such as energy conservation and carbon reduction renovation. New consumer formats such as digital and green, as well as the demand for "one elderly, one small" services such as elderly care and childcare, are still strong. The bottlenecks in the industrial chain are expected to be further opened up, which will continuously stimulate new supply and create new demand.
From the perspective of policy support,Next year is the closing year of the 14th five-year Plan, and a series of major strategic tasks, major reform measures, and major engineering projects are taking effect in an all-round way; at the same time, we have sufficient policy space and rich policy reserves. the continuous improvement of tools such as precise regulation and counter-cyclical adjustment, the continuous improvement of the consistency of macro policy orientation, and the integration and precision of macro policy systems will strongly support the steady and healthy development of the economy.
On the whole, the basic trend of China's economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed.
About "two new"
How is the implementation of the "two new" policies? Will there be more continuation policies and new policies next year?
Up to now, it has promoted the introduction of nearly 300 implementation rules in various aspects, continued to play the role of ultra-long-term special national debt funds to guide and drive, and strive to stimulate the quality of new life, new industrial momentum, new market vitality with the "two new" policies.
First of all, it better serves the consumption needs of the masses. The trade-in of consumer goods includes three major categories of key products, including automobiles, household appliances and household appliances. We will promote all localities to make good use of 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special national debt funds to really support consumers' demand for better, smarter and more environmentally friendly products. In actual operation, household appliances can be supplemented by up to 20% and cars can be supplemented by up to 20000 yuan. In terms of household appliances, many places specially support the transformation for aging. From the data point of view, the "replacement" policy has promoted the continuous recovery of home appliance sales. In October, the sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by nearly 40% year-on-year; consumers prefer energy-saving products. According to preliminary statistics, in the "replacement" activities, the sales of first-class energy-efficient home appliances accounted for up to 90%.
Second, increase the promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading. The equipment renewal policy focuses on seven key areas, including industry, agriculture, construction, education, transportation, culture and tourism, and medical care. 150 billion yuan of ultra-long-term special national debt funds are directly allocated to the project. At the same time, 112 standards are issued in terms of energy consumption and pollutant emissions to support enterprises to carry out process renewal, digital empowerment and green transformation, so as to promote the development of industries from "new" to "green" and effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
Third, support the economic recovery for the better. The "two new" policies work together from both sides of supply and demand. On the one hand, it supports enterprises to enhance the ability of iterative upgrading of products through "renewal" to better meet consumer demand. At the same time, it also supports residents to increase consumption through "renewal" and drive enterprises to invest and expand production, thus promoting a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of investment and consumption. For example, in the first 10 months, the national investment in the purchase of equipment and tools increased by 16.1, the contribution to investment growth is more than 60%.
In the next step, in the process of promoting the "two new" work, we will continue to strengthen the supervision of the whole chain of funds, promote the project to form a physical workload as soon as possible, continuously optimize the consumer market environment, strictly investigate the behaviors of "price increase before discount" and "false discount" in accordance with the law, and continue to do a good job in recycling and utilization, To guide the newly established China resource recycling group to speed up the layout and set up a national and functional resource recycling platform, carry out special inspection on illegal dismantling of waste electrical and electronic appliances.
On the one hand, we will carry out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the "two new" policies and summarize and continue good experiences and practices; on the other hand, we will study and propose policies and measures to continue to increase support and expand the scope of support in the future, which will be released publicly in due course after the implementation of relevant procedures, and continue to use the "two new" policies to promote the benefits of the masses, the profits of enterprises, and the economy.
About Private Economy
How to view the current situation of private economic development? What measures will be taken in the next step?
Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant parties have taken a number of measures to continue to promote the development of the private economy.
On the one hand, continue to improve the legal policy. Accelerate the legislative process of the private economy and solicit public opinions, promote all localities and departments to focus on private investment, fair access, financing support, etc., and introduce policies and measures to support the development of the private economy. On the other hand, to promote the resolution of the problem demand. As of the end of October, the National Development and Reform Commission had received 1234 complaints from private enterprises through various channels, and 696 had been completed, coordinating and solving some practical problems.
Judging from the statistical data and the situation learned, the current positive factors for the development of the private economy continue to increase.In terms of investment, private investment in the manufacturing industry increased by 11.4 in the first 10 months compared with the same period last year, 2.1 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all manufacturing investment, and private investment in the real economy maintained a good growth momentum. From the perspective of foreign trade, the import and export of private enterprises denominated in RMB increased by 9.3 in the first 10 months. From the perspective of market vitality, the potential of market consumption is accelerating. For example, the growth of online retail, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of the private economy, has accelerated significantly. In the first 10 months, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8.3 year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 faster than the previous 9 months. percentage point.
Creating a good development environment requires continuous and unremitting efforts. The National Development and Reform Commission continues to track the challenges and problems in the development of the private economy, is willing to listen carefully to the voices of private enterprises, and will continue to take more pragmatic measures with relevant parties to support private enterprises. Enterprises participate in the construction of major national projects, improve the financing support policy system for private enterprises, and actively create a social atmosphere that cares about and supports the development of the private economy; at the same time, continue to give full play to the role of a multi-level and normalized communication mechanism with private enterprises, help solve problems in development, strive to make private enterprises feel and benefit, and continue to promote the development and growth of the private economy.
About market access
Speed up the cracking of all kinds of market access "glass door" "revolving door" "spring door"
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant parties, carried out the seventh batch of investigation and clean-up of violations of the negative list of market access, and publicly notified 10 typical cases. For example, in the bidding of a certain project, small-scale construction enterprises from other places are restricted from participating in the bidding, and the bidding enterprises are required to register and set up local branches in violation of regulations, which hinders the equal access of business entities according to law. Another example is that a certain place illegally adds access conditions for the development and operation of wind energy resources, requiring private enterprises to bind state-owned enterprises to participate in the development of wind resources, which is a typical market access barrier.
In 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission will establish a system for collecting and reporting cases that violate the negative list of market access, focusing on issues of social concern and enterprise concern, and focusing on investigating, reporting and rectifying typical cases such as setting up hidden barriers to market access in some places and illegal examination and approval that do not meet the requirements of the list, so as to form a demonstration and driving role for the removal of similar access barriers at the national level and better guarantee equal access for all types of business entities in accordance with the law. Up to now, a total of 115 cases in 7 batches have been publicly notified of rectification.
Deeply breaking down market access barriers is a major reform task deployed by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. In the next step, we will continue to collect and report cases of violation of the negative list of market access as an important task in implementing the market access system and breaking down market access barriers. We will find, rectify and report local violations of the market access system together, speed up the cracking of various "glass doors", "revolving doors" and "spring doors" for market access, and create a more fair and transparent access environment in accordance with laws and regulations.
About cash for work
The special work-for-work investment project issued in advance will attract more than 200,000 people to work nearby.
In order to give full play to the role of the work-for-work policy, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the financial department issued two batches of 2025 special central work-for-work investment of 9.05 billion yuan in advance to support local governments to implement more than 2000 work-for-work projects.
In this process, we should promote local governments to do a good job in the preliminary work of the project, so as to ensure that after the investment plan is issued, the project can start construction quickly, and the masses can get labor remuneration as soon as possible, relying on the project construction, we should actively carry out labor skills training and the development of public welfare management and protection posts. We should use the funds on the "blade", so that the people in need can not only get labor remuneration, but also improve their labor skills by participating in the work relief project.
According to the preliminary calculation, the special investment project of work relief issued in advance will absorb more than 200000 people to work nearby, and the planned labor remuneration will exceed 2.7 billion yuan; if we include the promotion of work relief in key projects and agricultural and rural infrastructure construction projects, the scale of absorbing employment and paying remuneration will also increase several times.
In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will supervise and guide local governments to promote the construction of work-for-work projects in advance, so as to ensure that migrant workers can better enjoy the dividend of the work-for-work policy.
Information source: China Government website
