Industrial production maintains rapid growth, equipment manufacturing industry highlights its role as a "ballast stone"
In May, the national economy continued to rebound and improve, with stable production growth, sustained demand recovery, overall stable employment and prices, balanced international payments, sustained transformation and upgrading, and overall stable operation. "Recently, Liu Aihua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, Chief Economist, and Director of the Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Economy, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office.
Industrial production maintains rapid growth
In May, under the sustained influence of macroeconomic policies, industrial production maintained a relatively fast growth. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month on month. From January to May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In May, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry was 49.5%, and the Expected Index for Enterprise Production and Operation Activities was 54.3%.
The year-on-year growth rate of 5.6% and the month on month growth rate of 0.3% indicate that China's industrial economy continues to maintain a stable operating trend. The expected index of enterprise production and operation activities is 54.3%, indicating strong confidence in the development of manufacturing enterprises, "Wang Haibing, associate researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China Industry News reporters.
The year-on-year growth rate of 5.6% reflects the resilience and potential of China's industrial economy, indicating that China's industry is gradually recovering from adverse factors such as the epidemic, "said Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, in an interview with China Industry News.
Liu Aihua provided a detailed introduction to China's transformation and upgrading situation in May. Liu Aihua said that in May, scientific and technological innovation continued to enable high-quality development, the high-end, intelligent and green transformation trend of the manufacturing industry was obvious, and the new quality productivity continued to grow. In May, the production of high-tech products such as integrated circuits, 3D printing equipment, and full container ships grew rapidly. The digital economy is flourishing, and related fields such as intelligent manufacturing and online consumption are showing good growth. In May, the added value of the intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industry increased by 75.0% year-on-year, and the added value of the intelligent vehicle mounted equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.7%. From January to May, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 11.5% year-on-year, accounting for 0.8 percentage points higher than the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to April. The solid promotion of green and low-carbon transformation, and the continuous strengthening of clean and low-carbon energy supply. From January to May, clean power investment increased by 32.9% year-on-year.
Liu Aihua said that in May, 90% of regions and 80% of industries achieved growth. Among the 31 regions in China, 28 regions achieved year-on-year growth in added value, with a growth rate of 90.3%. Among 41 major industrial sectors, 33 industries saw a year-on-year increase in added value, with a growth rate of 80.5%.
In May, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 10% year-on-year, with electronic and communication equipment manufacturing growing by 13.7%, information and chemical manufacturing growing by 13.3%, and aerospace and equipment manufacturing growing by 8.4%, all maintaining rapid growth. In terms of products, integrated circuit production increased by 17.3%, 3D printing equipment increased by 36.3%, and full container ship production increased by 104.9%. ”Liu Aihua introduced.
In addition, the equipment manufacturing industry is experiencing rapid growth in production. Liu Aihua said that in May, with the continuous promotion of large-scale equipment renewal policy, the added value of radio and television equipment manufacturing, communication equipment manufacturing and other industries increased by 30.7% and 15.7% respectively year on year.
The rapid development and application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, coupled with the gradual cyclical recovery of the electronics industry, and the rapid growth of new quality productivity such as high-tech and equipment manufacturing, have effectively supported the stable growth of the industrial economy and industrial transformation and upgrading. In May, the added value of the electronics and automotive industries increased by 14.5% and 7.6% respectively, contributing more than 30% to the growth of all industries above designated size, and are important forces driving industrial growth, "said Qiao Baohua, Chief Researcher of Industrial Economic Operations at CCID Research Institute, in an interview with China Industry News.
In Wang Haibing's view, the reason for the stable operation in May is due to the continuous efforts of the national policy. In terms of supply, China has introduced a series of plans to stabilize growth in response to the high-quality development requirements of different industries such as steel, building materials, machinery, and power equipment; In terms of demand, China has formulated a series of action plans to promote consumption. With the gradual implementation and effectiveness of these policies, they have effectively helped accelerate the recovery of the industrial economy and maintained a stable operating trend. At the same time, China's exports have continued to rebound, effectively driving the industrial economy to accelerate recovery and maintain a stable operating trend. In addition, with the continuous introduction of a series of innovative macroeconomic policies in China, international organizations have raised their expectations for China's future economic growth rate. Coupled with the steady recovery of the global manufacturing industry and the continuous accumulation of power in the consumer market, the expectation of industrial enterprises investing in expanding production is also continuously increasing, effectively promoting the accelerated recovery of the industrial economy and maintaining a stable operating trend.
What are the favorable factors for promoting rapid industrial growth in the next stage? Liu Aihua said that, on the whole, industrial production has grown rapidly since this year, and transformation and upgrading have continued to advance. There are many favorable factors to promote rapid industrial growth in the next stage. Firstly, the production expectations of the enterprise are relatively good. The enterprise production index in the May PMI was 50.8%, continuing to expand; The expected index of enterprise production and operation activities is 54.3%, which continues to remain at a high level. The second is the continuous improvement of enterprise efficiency. From January to April, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.3% year-on-year, which is conducive to enhancing their production power. With the gradual implementation of policies such as large-scale equipment updates and the gradual release of effects, it will add new impetus to industrial production.
Equipment manufacturing industry plays a role as a "ballast stone"
In May, the added value of equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, driving the growth of all industries above designated size by 2.6 percentage points and contributing 45.7% to the growth of all industries above designated size. Among them, the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry grew by 14.5%, and the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing industry grew by 11.8%, both maintaining double-digit growth.
Qiao Baohua said that with the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and the real economy, the construction of the modern industrial system has been accelerated, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized and upgraded. From a production perspective, in the first five months, the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size grew faster than that of all industries above designated size, accounting for 32.8% and 15.5% of all industries above designated size respectively, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. From an investment perspective, in the first five months, investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 10.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate that accelerated by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first four months, returning to double-digit growth and leading the overall manufacturing investment growth rate by 0.8 percentage points. Among them, investment in aerospace and equipment manufacturing increased by 53.1%, while investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing increased by 10.4%. From the perspective of exports, the export delivery value of railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, automotive and other equipment manufacturing industries increased by 23.4% and 19.1% respectively year-on-year in the first five months, accounting for an increased proportion of all industrial exports above designated size compared to the same period last year.
"Supported by key industries such as electronics and automobiles, in May, the added value of equipment manufacturing above designated size contributed 45.7% to the growth of all industries above designated size; its proportion in the added value of industries above designated size remained above 30% for 15 consecutive months, and has continued to increase since the beginning of the year," said Qiao Baohua.
The growth of the equipment manufacturing industry has played an important supporting role in industrial growth. Its stable development trend helps to stabilize the growth rate of the entire industry, improve the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. "Wang Peng said that with the continuous progress of technology, the equipment manufacturing industry continues to introduce new technologies and processes, improving the technological content and added value of products. At the same time, the gradual recovery and expansion of domestic and international markets have provided broad development space for the equipment manufacturing industry. In addition, the government has provided certain policy support for the equipment manufacturing industry, such as providing financial subsidies, tax incentives, etc., which has reduced the operating costs of enterprises and improved their profitability.
The reason why the equipment manufacturing industry has achieved such impressive results is that, under the new situation of seizing the advantage of developing new quality productivity, various regions across the country have introduced a series of policy measures to vigorously promote the development of related industries, effectively driving the growth of the equipment manufacturing industry. In addition, with the continuous efforts of large-scale equipment renewal policies, the growth of the equipment manufacturing industry has been effectively driven, "Wang Haibing also said.
王鹏表示，随着技术创新的推进和市场需求的扩大，装备制造业有望在下半年继续保持强劲的增长势头，特别是新能源汽车、智能制造等领域将迎来更大的发展机遇。同时，国家可能会继续加大对装备制造业的政策扶持力度，推动其向更高端、更智能的方向发展。
制造业投资较快增长
“5月份，固定资产投资从态势来看，总体保持了平稳增长，同时结构也在持续优化。1-5月份固定资产投资同比增长4%。”刘爱华表示。
刘爱华介绍，5月份制造业投资较快增长。在制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化推动下，制造业投资延续了年初以来较快的增长态势。1-5月份，制造业投资同比增长9.6%，快于全部投资增速5.6个百分点，对全部投资增长贡献率达到57.3%。
刘爱华表示，设备更新和技术改造投资增长加快。在大规模设备更新政策的有力支持下，设备工器具购置投资增势良好。1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.5%，增速比1-4月份提高0.3个百分点，拉动全部投资增长2.1个百分点，占全部投资的比重比去年同期提高1.6个百分点。在投资方面，设备工器具投资继续保持快速增长，传统产业转型升级步伐加快，1-5月份，制造业技术改造投资同比增长10%，加快1.5个百分点。
“技术产业投资持续加力。”刘爱华表示，1-5月份，高技术产业投资同比增长11.5%，其中电子及通信设备制造业投资增长10.4%，航空航天器及设备制造业投资增长53.1%，信息服务业投资增长19.1%，科技成果转化服务业投资增长16.5%。
“前5个月，高技术制造业投资同比增长10.4%，增速较前4个月加快0.7个百分点，重回两位数增长，领先全部制造业投资增速0.8个百分点。”乔宝华补充说。
此外，大项目投资支撑作用突出。1-5月份，计划总投资亿元及以上项目完成投资同比增长8.5%，拉动全部投资增长4.6个百分点。“从未来投资前景看，我国扩大有效投资空间广阔，在创新发展、转型升级、绿色转型、民生领域这些方面投资潜力巨大，同时也有很好的支撑。”刘爱华说。
“5月份，我国制造业投资完成额同比增长9.4%，除了政策端、出口端、预期端因素外，还包括两方面原因：一是转型升级深入推进。如高端化、智能化、绿色化、融合化是我国制造业企业转型升级的重要方向。为了加快实现转型升级目标，制造业企业会在工艺升级、设备更新、厂房改造、数字融合、流程创新等方面加大投资力度，进而促进制造业投资增长。二是关联带动作用凸显。各地区在积极推进‘三大工程’建设的过程中，会激发制造业企业发展活力，形成较强的关联带动作用，进而促进制造业投资增长。”王海兵表示。
刘爱华表示，从近期看，下阶段有利于投资稳定增长的因素在逐渐增多。一是要素保障不断强化。1-4月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长4.3%，企业效益的改善有利于增强企业投资能力和信心。二是政策支持持续增强。中央预算内投资下达和专项债发行加快，有利于实物工作量的增长。三是重大项目建设加快。重点领域投资加速，为投资增长不断提供新的动力。四是从先行指标看，5月份建筑业业务活动预期指数为56.3%，处于扩张区间，比上个月上升0.2个百分点，这也表明建筑业企业对行业发展的信心稳定。
“总的看，下阶段投资有望继续保持规模扩大、结构优化走势。”刘爱华说。
经济有望继续延续回升向好态势
近期，相当多的国际机构、国际组织都上调了对中国经济全年增长预期。比如世界银行近期上调2024中国经济增速的预期到4.8%，比上期的预测值高出0.3个百分点。国际货币基金组织前段时间也将今年中国经济增速的预期上调到了5%，比前期预测值提高了0.4个百分点。
“国际组织和机构纷纷上调中国经济增长的预期，充分表明国际社会对中国经济增长前景的信心。”刘爱华表示，从下一阶段各种因素来看，尽管外部环境复杂多变，国内经济也面临一些困难和挑战，但是经济回升向好、长期向好的基本面没有改变，从生产需求、政策支撑等因素分析，经济有望继续延续回升向好的态势。
刘爱华表示，从生产看，创新的动能不断培育增强，产业转型升级扎实推进，现代服务业和先进制造业加快融合，制造业高端化智能化绿色化水平也不断提升。同时，新投资保持较快增长，新产业、新产品、新模式较快增长，持续为经济发展注入新的动能。1-5月份高技术产业投资保持了两位数增长，快于全部投资7.5个百分点。现代化产业体系在加快建设，新质生产力培育成长，规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值增长快于全部规模以上工业，占全部规模以上工业的比重达到32.8%、15.5%。
从需求方面看，国内需求有望继续恢复。消费方面，今年以来文旅等服务消费需求保持活跃，市场销售不断扩容提质，根据相关部门数据，刚刚过去的端午节假期，全国国内旅游出游人次和国内游客的出游总花费继续保持了比较快的增长，国潮旅游持续升温。下一阶段，随着促消费政策的落实落细和消费场景的创新拓展，消费潜力有望进一步释放。投资方面，今年以来，各地区各部门加快项目开工建设，同时企业技术改造投入也在加大，投资规模扩大结构优化。下阶段，随着“两重”建设项目陆续下达开工，资金保障力度加大，实物工作量加快形成，投资规模将继续稳步扩大。
从政策支撑看，宏观政策的效力也在持续显现。今年以来，各地区各部门贯彻落实党中央的决策部署，密集出台和抓紧落实了一系列宏观调控政策，为促进经济回升向好发挥了重要作用。比如，大规模的设备更新和消费品以旧换新等政策，对工业、投资和消费的带动作用在最近两个月的数据中都有所体现。有关部门和地区积极适应房地产市场形势变化，适时调整和优化相关政策。“同时我们还要看到，一些政策的出台实施时间还比较短，随着政策的进一步落实落地落细，相关政策效能还将进一步释放，持续助力实体经济发展。”刘爱华指出。
“从前5个月经济运行总体的回升向好的态势来看，以及我们对下个阶段生产需求、政策等支撑因素的总体判断来看，我们认为下阶段经济运行仍会继续保持回升向好态势。”刘爱华表示。
王鹏也表示，随着国内外市场的进一步回暖和政策的持续推动，预计下半年我国工业经济将继续保持稳定增长态势。在国家政策的引导下，工业生产结构将进一步优化，高科技、高附加值的产业比重将逐渐增加。
“2024年，我国有信心且能够实现年初政府工作报告所提出的5%左右的经济增长目标。在这一过程中，持续回升向好的工业经济将发挥更加重要的作用。”王海兵表示，面对外部环境复杂多变、全球市场中低位徘徊、产业结构加速调整、大宗商品链式冲击等风险因素，我国要久久为功深化改革、坚定不移扩大开放，继续保持积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，在产业、消费、投资、出口等方面加大政策创新力度，确保各项政策有效落地、持续发力。
Information source: Jijingwang
