The economic operation is moving towards stability, and the highlights of industrial development are diverse - a summary of the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2023
On February 5, 2024, the China Machinery Industry Federation held an information conference on the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2023 in Beijing. The Chief Economist of China Machinery Industry Federation, Ye Dingda, has released the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2023. The information release is now published as follows for your reference and learning.
The economic operation is moving towards stability, and the highlights of industrial development are diverse
——Overview of the Economic Operation of the Machinery Industry in 2023
China Machinery Industry Federation
2023年是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。机械工业面对复杂严峻的内外部形势，坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院的决策部署，攻坚克难、拼搏进取，高质量发展扎实推进，全年主要经济指标实现稳定增长，为拉动制造业乃至全国工业平稳发展发挥了重要作用。展望2024年，机械工业机遇与挑战并存，但有利条件强于不利因素，全年经济运行仍有望保持稳中有进的总体态势。
1、 Basic characteristics of industry operation in 2023
Although the economic operation of the machinery industry will experience fluctuations in 2023, the overall trend is improving. Affected by the comparison base, the main indicators showed a lower growth rate in the first quarter, a higher growth rate in the second quarter, and a slower growth rate in the third quarter. However, with the concentrated introduction and implementation of a number of stable economic policy measures, the industry's operation stabilized and improved again in the fourth quarter, and the main economic indicators achieved steady growth throughout the year.
（1） The industrial scale has reached a new level
As of the end of 2023, the number of enterprises above designated size in the machinery industry will be 121000, an increase of 10000 from the previous year, accounting for 25% of the national industry and an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year; The total assets reached 36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, accounting for 21.5% of the country's industrial sector, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous year.
（2） The growth rate of added value is higher than that of the national industrial sector
In 2023, the added value of the machinery industry increased by 8.7% year-on-year, which is 4.1 and 3.7 percentage points higher than the national industrial and manufacturing growth rates. The added value of the five major categories of the national economy mainly involved in the machinery industry has all increased, with electrical machinery and automobiles playing a prominent driving role, with added value growth rates of 12.9% and 13%, respectively; The growth rate of value-added for general equipment, specialized equipment, and instruments is relatively low, at 2%, 3.6%, and 3.3%, respectively.
（3） Product production and sales situation differentiation
In 2023, the production and sales situation of major products in the machinery industry will continue to diverge from the previous year, with approximately half of the products experiencing an increase or decrease in output. Among the 120 main products under key monitoring, the output of 61 products increased year-on-year, accounting for 50.8%; The output of 59 products decreased year-on-year, accounting for 49.2%.
The production and sales characteristics of key products are mainly manifested as follows: firstly, the automobile production and sales have reached a historical high, with the annual automobile production and sales exceeding 30 million units, and both passenger and commercial vehicles have achieved rapid growth; The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached around 9.5 million units, accounting for 31.6% of the total automobile sales, indicating a significant effect of industrial restructuring. Secondly, electrical appliances continue to maintain growth, with generator sets and solar cell production increasing by 28.5% and 54% respectively. Thirdly, the production of the machine tool industry has rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in the output of metal cutting machine tools. Fourthly, construction machinery remains sluggish, with sales of excavators and loaders decreasing by 25.4% and 15.8% respectively. Fifth, agricultural machinery products continue to be sluggish, with production of large and medium-sized tractors and specialized equipment for feed production decreasing by 1.9%, 9.1%, and 21.2% respectively.
（4） Stable growth in performance indicators
In 2023, the machinery industry achieved a revenue of 29.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; The total profit reached nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The growth rates of operating revenue and total profit were 5.7 and 6.4 percentage points higher than the national industrial sector, accounting for 22.3% and 22.8% of the national industrial sector, respectively, an increase of 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous year.
（5） Overall high investment growth rate
In 2023, the overall fixed assets investment in the machinery industry will continue to grow at a high speed, which will play an important supporting role in driving industrial and manufacturing investment. Among the five major categories of the national economy mainly involved in the machinery industry, investment in automobiles and electrical machinery has grown rapidly, with growth rates of 19.4% and 32.2% respectively. In particular, the growth rate of electrical machinery has remained above 32% for two consecutive years; The growth rates of investment in general equipment, specialized equipment, and instrumentation were 4.8%, 10.4%, and 14.4%, respectively. The growth rate of investment in the five major industries was higher than the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society (3%), and higher than the national average level of industry (9.0%) and manufacturing (6.5%) except for general equipment.
（六）外贸稳中有升再创新高
2023年世界政治经济形势复杂严峻，全球贸易表现低迷，外需疲弱带来出口增长压力，但我国机械工业顶住多重压力，对外贸易稳中有升再创新高，彰显了强劲韧性和国际竞争力。据海关统计数据汇总，2023年机械工业外贸进出口总额达1.09万亿美元，同比增长1.7%，连续第三年超过万亿美元，占全国外贸进出口总额的18.3%。其中，进口额3045.1亿美元，同比下降7.6%，占全国外贸进口额的11.9%；出口额7830.2亿美元，同比增长5.8%，占全国外贸出口额的23.2%；实现贸易顺差4785.1亿美元，同比增长16.6%，占全国货物贸易顺差的58.1%。机械工业外贸总额、出口额、贸易顺差规模均再创历史新高。
（七）行业运行处于景气区间
机械工业景气指数涵盖生产、投资、外贸、经济效益等多个维度，综合反映机械工业的运行情况。受上年基数影响，2023年机械工业景气指数总体呈现前低中高后稳的态势，上半年低开高走，5月份升至年内最高点，此后逐月回落趋稳，12月份回稳至105.5，全年各月份机械工业景气指数均位于景气区间。
2、 Highlights in the development of the industry
2023年机械工业有效应对风险挑战，坚持科技创新引领，加速转型升级提质增效，新质生产力加快培育，高质量发展亮点纷呈。
(I) strategic emerging industries-leading industry innovation and development
The new war industry is an important field of new quality productivity and the main battlefield of scientific and technological innovation. In recent years, the new war industry has continued to develop rapidly, injecting strong impetus into the innovation and development of the machinery industry. In 2023, the total operating income of the machinery industry and related industries in the new war industry was 24.2 trillion billion yuan, an increase of 7.8 percent over the same period last year; the total profit was 1.4 trillion billion yuan, an increase of 7.0 percent over the same period last year; the growth rate was 1.0 and 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the machinery industry as a whole; it accounted for 81.3 and 81.0 percent of the machinery industry, an increase of 0.7 and 2.2 percentage points respectively over the same period last year. Among them, the growth rate of the main indicators of new war industries such as new energy equipment, new energy vehicles, and energy-saving and environmental protection industries is significantly higher than the overall level of the machinery industry, becoming a new leader in the innovation and development of the industry.
Accelerate the cultivation of new kinetic energy for (II) green development
Under the guidance of the "double carbon" goal, the green development of the machinery industry continues to exert force. Industry enterprises in-depth implementation of the concept of green development, the promotion of green technology, to build a green factory, the construction of green manufacturing system. Clean energy equipment is developing rapidly. In 2023, the total operating income and profit of the energy and equipment manufacturing industry of the machinery industry increased by 9.7 and 18.5, respectively, higher than the overall 2.9 and 14.4 percentage points of the machinery industry. The output of generating units increased by 28.5 in the whole year, of which the contribution rate of wind turbines exceeded 60%; the output of photovoltaic cells increased by more than 40% for 14 consecutive months; at the end of 2023, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China was 1.45 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than half of the total installed capacity, historically surpassing thermal power. The large-scale development of clean energy equipment is progressing steadily. Sany Heavy Energy has released the world's largest 15 MW onshore wind turbine, Dongfang Electric's 18 MW offshore direct-drive wind turbine, and Mingyang Intelligent has launched 22 MW offshore wind turbine. The electrification of construction machinery power and the transformation of hydrogen energy have accelerated. The sales volume of electric loaders reached 3595 units in the whole year. Xugong, Sany, Zoomlian, Taichong and other enterprises have accelerated the research and development of hydrogen energy technology and product innovation. Important progress has been made in hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen storage systems, fuel cell engines and other aspects. A variety of hydrogen energy construction machinery products such as hydrogen excavators, hydrogen energy loaders, hydrogen energy loaders, hydrogen energy mixers, hydrogen energy mixers, hydrogen energy mixers, promote green and low-carbon development in the field of engineering construction.
(III) innovation leads the steady progress of major equipment
The construction of innovation system was accelerated. By the end of 2023, there were 260 key laboratories, engineering research centers and innovation centers listed for operation and approved construction in the machinery industry, an increase of 8 over the end of last year. Tiejian Heavy Industry, Ningde Times, Hengli Hydraulic and other 3 machinery enterprises won the 7th China Industrial Awards. New breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation in key areas such as power equipment, offshore equipment, petrochemical equipment, and complete sets of equipment, and a series of major technical equipment have been put into use. Three generations of nuclear power independent achievement "Guohe No.1" to achieve 100 percent of the machine localization capacity; TBEA independently developed the world's largest capacity of 110 kV intelligent on-load dry-type transformer grid application; Huaneng Group independently developed the world's first tandem two-wind turbine wind turbine "Sairui" completed installation; Honghua Group independently developed offshore equipment and technology applied to the construction of China's first ocean research ship "Dream; the world's first 12000 Mitte deep well automatic drilling rig independently developed by Baoshi Machinery has been delivered and applied. The high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage device independently developed by Lanshi Heavy Equipment has reached the world's advanced level. Dongfang Electric has achieved mass production of Class F gas turbines with high localization rate. Xidian Group has realized the localization of generator circuit breakers for million kilowatt nuclear power units, solving the problem of" sticking neck "in the construction of large nuclear power plants in China. The new steam turbine independently developed by citic heavy industry will be delivered offline, break import dependence and fill the domestic gap; China Railway Equipment independently developed the first large-diameter and large-angle inclined shaft hard rock roadheader" Yongning "to achieve the first line through, filling the technical gap in the field of shield machine inclined shaft construction in China.
Speed up the development of high-end intelligent (IV)
The machinery industry actively promotes the digital transformation and intelligent upgrading of the industry, promotes the deep integration of the new generation of information technology and the machinery industry, accelerates the integration and innovation of intelligent manufacturing and major equipment fields, and makes new progress in the high-end, digital and intelligent development of the industry. By the end of 2023, 18 intelligent factories of machinery enterprises such as Ningde Times, GAC E'an, Longji and Sany Heavy Industry will be selected as the world's "lighthouse" factories and become the vanguard of global intelligent manufacturing. Zoomlion has built 23 intelligent factories with Zoomlion Intelligent Industry City as the core, of which 10 have been completed and put into operation, achieving a comprehensive automation rate of more than 85%. The second phase of Eston Robot Intelligent Industrial Park was completed, promote the deep integration of industrial Internet and industrial robots; Luozhou builds a leading intelligent production line in China to help the development of new energy vehicles; Yituo Group's 320-horsepower continuously variable speed tractor realizes mass production, filling the market gap; Xi 'an Coal Mining Machine has successfully developed the world's first 10-meter super-large high-end intelligent high-end shearer and put it into use, filling the gap in the international industry. Mingyang Intelligent Wind and Fishery Integration Intelligent Equipment Successfully Applied to Create a New Model.
(V) export trade structure continues to upgrade
In 2023, my country's machinery industry's foreign trade exports reached a new high on a high base, which not only achieved a reasonable increase in volume, but also achieved a qualitative and effective improvement in terms of growth momentum and trade structure. First, overseas markets are diversified. Industry enterprises seize foreign trade opportunities, deeply cultivate key markets such as the Russian-speaking region, Africa, Europe and Latin America, and gradually establish a new pattern of diversified foreign trade markets. In 2023, my country's machinery industry's exports to Russia increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, and Russia became the second largest exporter of my country's machinery industry; exports to Africa, Europe and Latin America increased by 17.3, 16.3 and 9.8 respectively; and the joint construction of the "Belt and Road" The total exports of the countries increased by 14% year-on-year, accounting for 50% of the total exports of the machinery industry. Second, the main engine and the whole machine products have increased significantly and their leading role has been enhanced, reflecting the progress from made in China to created in China. The total export of "new three" products of electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells was 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking through the trillion yuan mark for the first time, with a year-on-year increase of 29.9 percent; the export volume of excavators and large and medium-sized tractors increased by 15.4 percent and 33.5 percent respectively, and the export volume of loaders, cranes and CNC metal cutting machines increased by 1.2 times, 2 times and 1.2 times respectively. Third, the proportion of general trade with high technology content continues to increase, which is the main force driving the export of machinery industry to a new high. General trade exports accounted for 72.1 per cent in 2023, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous year. The fourth is to build a new pattern of coordinated development of international and domestic business. China's first tractor production line in Congo (Brazzaville) landed, and Xugong and Liugong's international revenue accounted for more than 40%.
3、 Difficulties in industry operation
In 2023, the external market pressure of the machinery industry and its own structural contradictions are superimposed, and the economic operation of the industry is still facing difficulties and problems such as insufficient demand, difficulty in recovering accounts, falling prices, fluctuations in the foreign trade market, and uneven internal development.
Weak demand in (I) market, insufficient orders
In 2023, China's economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development, tortuous forward, domestic demand recovery is not as expected, machinery products market is not prosperous. The manufacturing PMI index fell below the critical value in April, briefly recovered to 50.2 in September, and continued to fall below the critical value again in the fourth quarter, at 49 in December, of which the new orders index was only 48.7. A special survey of key enterprises in the machinery industry shows that the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient orders in 2023 is always higher than 50%, and the proportion rose to 65% at the end of the fourth quarter. Among them, the proportion of insufficient orders for small and medium-sized enterprises is as high as 72%.
The problem of difficult recovery of accounts (II) continues.
In recent years, the accounts receivable of the machinery industry has continued to grow rapidly, and the large scale of accounts receivable and long recovery period have become prominent problems affecting the capital turnover and production and operation of enterprises. At the end of 2023, the total accounts receivable of the machinery industry was 8 trillion billion yuan, an increase of 11.1 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 3.5 percentage points higher than that of the national industry in the same period, accounting for 33.7 percent of the national industrial accounts receivable. The average payback period for accounts receivable in the machinery industry was 89.9 days, 5.4 days longer than in the same period in 2022 and 29.3 days higher than in the national industry. According to the special survey, 53% of enterprises' accounts receivable increased year-on-year, and 41% of enterprises' overdue accounts receivable increased year-on-year. Among them, the overdue amount of private enterprises increased by 3 percentage points compared with the whole industry.
Affected by this, the capital turnover rate of the machinery industry decreased, the asset-liability ratio increased, and the operating efficiency of the industry was impaired. In 2023, the turnover rate of current assets in the machinery industry was only 1.26 times, down 0.03 times from the same period last year and 0.29 times lower than that of the national industry; the asset-liability ratio was 58.6 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year and 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the national industry.
Downward (III) prices squeeze profit margins
The rapid increase in production capacity and insufficient effective demand, fierce competition in the machinery product market, coupled with weak bargaining power and other factors, the ex-factory prices of machinery products continue to decline and the decline continues to deepen. Factory prices fell 0.2 percent in February from a year earlier, and the decline deepened to 2.5 percent in December. The machinery industry mainly involves five major categories of national economic industries, and the ex-factory prices all fell in December compared with the same period last year. Early investment hot, leading the industry's new growth areas, rapid growth in production capacity, industry competition intensified, triggering product prices down. Photovoltaic, energy storage battery industry major products have experienced a significant price correction, the battery manufacturing industry in December prices fell as much as 9.7. The downward price squeezes the profit margin, and the phenomenon of increasing income without increasing profits is widespread. In 2023, the growth rate of total profits in the machinery industry was 2.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate of operating income, and the operating income margin fell 0.2 percentage points from the same period in 2022 to 5.9 percent.
(IV) foreign trade market uncertainties increase
The downward pressure on the external demand market of the machinery industry continues due to multiple factors such as the trade squeeze formed by the repair of global supply chains, the slowdown in the recovery of developed economies, and the increasing trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts. First, the rapid growth of exports of products in the early stage has a slowing trend, with exports of wind turbines, photovoltaic products and excavators falling by 29.8, 3.1 and 0.9 percent respectively in 2023 compared with the same period last year. Second, the economic growth of some developed economies is weak, demand is slowing down, and China's machinery industry exports to them are down. Exports to North America fell 7.3 per cent year-on-year in 2023, with exports to the US down 7.9 per cent; exports to the EU grew only 1.5 per cent, with exports to Germany down 1.2 per cent year-on-year; and exports to Japan down 1.4 per cent year-on-year. Third, affected by industrial transfer, the export volume of machinery industry to ASEAN decreased by 4.6. Fourth, enterprises in hand overseas orders short single majority. A special survey at the beginning of this year showed that 81% of the overseas orders of enterprises only meet the production of one quarter, of which the proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises is even higher, at 88%. Fifth, in recent years, the export of bright spots has become a new target of international trade disputes. The European Union launched a countervailing investigation on China's new energy vehicles, launched an anti-dumping investigation on mobile lifting platforms, the United Kingdom launched an anti-dumping and countervailing investigation on China's excavators, India began to impose five-year anti-dumping duties on China's wheel loaders, and the European Parliament diversified the supply of key raw materials such as lithium and silicon to reduce dependence on a single country. Sixth, the impact of international political and geopolitical conflicts on international trade. Uncertain and unpredictable factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the obstruction of the Red Sea waterway have interfered with international trade activities.
Unbalanced (V) development, some industries have greater downward pressure
机械工业分行业之间发展不均衡、运行分化明显，部分行业仍面临较大下行压力。一是产销形势分化，产品产量增减数量各占一半左右。二是出口形势分化，14个分行业外贸出口10增4降，汽车、机器人、农机、重型矿山机械、工程机械等主机、整机类行业产品出口增势较好，而基础件、零部件、通用机械、文办设备等传统优势产品出口形势较弱。三是财务效益分化。14个分行业中，营业收入8增6降。其中，电工电器和汽车两个行业体量大、增速也较高，是支撑机械工业营收增长的核心动力，此外机器人和内燃机行业增速较高；而农机、工程机械行业仍未摆脱产销低迷的下行通道，营业收入降幅均超过10%，分别为11.1%和13.1%。利润总额11增3降。其中，文办设备、石化通用机械行业利润增幅超过15%，工程机械和内燃机行业因上年基数较低增速超过25%；而农机行业降幅8.9%,机床工具行业因磨料磨具价格下行影响降幅近30%。
4. machinery industry trend forecast in 2024
Analysis on the Development Environment of (I) Industry
Looking forward to 2024, the internal and external environment facing the operation of the machinery industry is still complex and severe. From an international point of view, the world is intertwined with turmoil, the evolution of a century of changes is accelerating, international political disputes and military conflicts have erupted at many points, and the growth momentum of the world economy and international trade is insufficient. In addition, the demand for supply chain diversification in developed economies has increased, trade protectionism has prevailed, and the game between major countries in key areas has intensified. The foreign trade market of machinery industry is facing more uncertain factors and greater downward pressure.
From a domestic perspective, the macroeconomic environment still has difficulties such as insufficient effective demand, weak social expectations, weak investment willingness, and lower-than-expected consumption. Some industries have repeated layouts, intensified competition, and downward prices. However, the basic trend of China's overall economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and the favorable factors supporting the high-quality development of the machinery industry continue to gather and increase. First, the Central Economic Work Conference stressed that in 2024 economic work should adhere to the principle of seeking progress amid stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking, strengthening the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and enhancing the consistency of macro policy orientation. Second, macroeconomic policies such as lowering interest rates, reducing taxes and fees, and a series of stable growth industry policy effects will continue to be released, and the superposition of stock policies and incremental policies will effectively improve the development environment of the machinery industry, enhance market confidence and further release market potential. Third, major projects, key projects, new infrastructure, etc. will further accelerate substantive construction, rural revitalization and new urbanization, regional development of major strategies and other initiatives will be further landed, which will release greater market demand for the machinery industry. Fourth, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation will bring new development opportunities. The new generation of information technology is deeply integrated with traditional industries, and green development promotes the accelerated transformation of production and consumption. This will provide more development stage for the machinery industry and accelerate the pace of high-end, intelligent and green transformation of the machinery industry.
(II) industry operation trend prediction
Overall:2024Opportunities and challenges coexist in the development of machinery industry, but the opportunities outweigh the challenges, and the favorable conditions are stronger than the unfavorable factors. Comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the economic operation of the machinery industry throughout the year will continue to be stable and improving. The growth rate of major economic indicators is expected to be more than 5%, and foreign trade will remain basically stable.
2024 is the 75th anniversary of the founding of New China and a key year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The machinery industry will adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Second Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference, anchor the goals of new industrialization and modern industrial system construction, and use Technological innovation promotes industrial innovation, accelerates the cultivation of new quality productivity, accelerates the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and solidly promotes high-end, intelligent, green development, and continuous stable operation of machinery industry, with more outstanding achievements to the motherland 75th birthday gift.
Source: China Machinery Industry Federation Public Number
