Foreign Weekly Review: US Stocks Continuously Rise, Risks Accumulate, Oil Price Rise Restricted
Due to the rising hype and market panic index correction, the three major stock indexes in the United States all hit new closing highs last week. Due to investors' concern about the impact of variant COVID-19 on demand and the difficulty of finding a reconciliation between oil producing countries, the rise of international oil prices was limited, and it ended flat in shock last week.
US stocks hit a new high
Due to the rebound in market sentiment and rising speculation, the three major stock indexes in New York City fluctuated and closed higher last week, all hitting new historical highs.
On the last trading day of last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 448.23 points to close at 34870.16, an increase of 1.30%. The S&P 500 stock index rose 48.73 points to close at 4369.55, an increase of 1.13%. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 142.13 points to close at 14701.92, an increase of 0.98%.
In terms of weekly gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes each rose 0.4%. All three major indices have risen for the third consecutive week.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures stock market investor panic and market risk, closed at 16.18 points last week.
However, multiple research institutions still indicate that there may be a significant correction in the US stock market. The market generally expects a significant increase in quarterly profits for businesses, with profit growth for American companies peaking as they recover from the collapse caused by last year's pandemic. Investors are paying attention to the upcoming quarterly performance of US companies and their predictions for economic recovery in the second half of 2021. Some are concerned that the recent economic growth momentum has weakened.
Morgan Stanley's Chief US Securities Strategist Mike Wilson stated that the stock market is firmly in the middle of the cycle, with stock indices typically experiencing a 10% to 15% pullback.
In terms of Chinese concept stocks, on the last trading day of last week, the stock prices of Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu rose by over 3%, Pinduoduo and NetEase rose by over 2%, Beike's stock price rose by nearly 5%, and Bilibili's stock price rose by over 6%. After four consecutive trading days of decline, Didi's stock price rebounded more than 7% last Friday, closing at $12.03 per share, with a latest market value of approximately $57.7 billion.
Good quarterly earnings expectations support European stocks
European stock markets rose more than 1% on the last trading day of last week, achieving their best single day performance in two months and regaining the lost ground from the volatile decline in the first few trading days of last week.
Last Friday, the pan European Stoxx 600 index rose 1.3%, while automotive and mining stocks that were hit earlier this week surged 4% and 3.4% respectively. Mining stocks have achieved their best single day performance in two months. In the first four days of last week, the index fell by 1.1% cumulatively, but Friday's rally regained all lost ground.
The London Stock Exchange's Financial Times 100 Stock Average Price Index closed at 7121.88 points on the 9th, up 91.22 points or 1.30% from the previous trading day. The three major European stock indexes rose across the board on the same day.
In terms of individual stocks, mining stocks led the way in the London stock market on that day, with the top five rising stocks being: Russian steel producer Yefraz's stock price rose by 5.45%, BHP Billiton's stock price rose by 4.34%, Anglo American Resources' stock price rose by 4.27%, Rio Tinto Group's stock price rose by 4.09%, British luxury goods group Burberry's stock price rose by 3.82%, and Glencore's stock price rose by 3.82%.
In terms of the other two major European stock indexes, the CAC40 index of the Paris Stock Exchange in France closed at 6529.42 points, up 132.69 points from the previous trading day, an increase of 2.07%; The DAX index of the Frankfurt stock market in Germany closed at 15687.93 points, up 267.29 points or 1.73% from the previous trading day.
Investors will now turn their attention to the earnings season, which will officially kick off next week. It is expected that most European companies will release their financial reports later this month. According to data from Refinitiv IBES, analysts predict that the second quarter profits of companies in the Stoxx 600 index will surge by nearly 109%.
Multiple factors limit the increase in oil prices
Due to the rebound in market risk appetite and a significant weakening of the US dollar, international crude oil futures prices fluctuated and closed flat last week, with market expectations that differences among oil producing countries may limit future oil price increases.
截至上周最后一个交易日收盘，纽约商品交易所2021年8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.62美元，收于每桶74.56美元，涨幅为2.22%。2021年9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格则上涨1.43美元，收于每桶75.55美元，涨幅为1.93%。
奥地利JBC能源在8日表示，从目前的情况看来，沙特与阿联酋之间的僵局要出现突破只可能等到下一次联合部长级监督委员会会议举行之时。因而，预计今年8月份欧佩克与伙伴国的原油产量将与7月份保持相同，9月份产量可能才会增加。这将令8月份市场供需进一步收紧，预计石油库存降幅将变大。这些对油价构成短期利好。
但由于主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋之间的讨论破裂，人们担心欧佩克+产油国可能会放弃他们在疫情期间所遵循的产量限制，油价涨幅也会受限。
另外，变异新冠病毒在全球多地传播，以及对其可能拖累全球经济复苏的担忧，也给油价带来压力。
挪威能源咨询机构雷斯塔能源表示，价格战几乎总是短暂的，没有人在长期能获胜。在减产协议的框架下，让阿联酋和其他想要增加供应的产油国略微提高生产配额符合欧佩克与合作伙伴国的利益。
Information source: Economic Reference Report
