China's June PMI data remains stable - the role of manufacturing upgrading in promoting economic growth is further strengthened
On June 30th, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, with a similar level of prosperity to the previous month, and remained below the boom bust line for two consecutive months; The non manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in a high prosperity range of over 54.0% for six consecutive months.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed that the PMI index in June remained unchanged from the previous month and continued to be below the boom bust line, indicating that the downward pressure on the current economic operation is still prominent.
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that in June, the manufacturing production index was 51.3%. Although it fell 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, it continued to remain in the expansion range.
From the perspective of key industries, the production indices of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries are 55.6%, 53.3%, and 52.2%, respectively, all showing an increase on a month on month basis, and are 4.3, 2.0, and 0.9 percentage points higher than the overall manufacturing industry. The production prosperity is stable with some improvement. This indicates that the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry continues to advance, and the role of mid to high end manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing in promoting economic growth is further enhanced, "said Zhao Qinghe.
From the perspective of market performance, in June, the new orders index for the manufacturing industry was 49.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in a contraction range for two consecutive months. Among them, the index of new export orders reflecting external demand was 46.3%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than last month. This indicates a weak driving force for market order growth and a tightening environment for foreign trade development.
However, manufacturing companies have generally stable expectations for the recent market development. The expected index of enterprise production and operation activities is 53.4%, and among the 21 industries surveyed, 18 are in the expansion range.
In June, the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in a relatively high prosperity range of over 54.0% for six consecutive months, indicating that the non manufacturing industry maintained a stable and progressive trend.
Cai Jin, Vice President of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, stated that the non manufacturing new order index rebounded significantly in June, indicating that market demand has provided effective support for stable economic growth.
The driving force behind the rebound in demand is manifested in the following aspects: firstly, the effectiveness of investment stabilization policies is beginning to emerge, with investment projects starting in multiple regions, leading to a significant increase in new orders in the construction industry; secondly, wholesale activities are active, with a significant increase in the new order index and a rising demand in the circulation market; thirdly, the demand in the financial industry is steadily increasing, which is conducive to stabilizing social expectations, "said Cai Jin.
今年上半年，我国制造业PMI有4个月份处于荣枯线下方，前6个月制造业PMI的均值为49.7%，低于去年同期1.6个百分点，处于收缩区间，表明制造业存在下行压力。
中国物流信息中心专家文韬认为，尽管制造业PMI仍处于50%以下，但供需分项指数降幅较上月有所收窄，企业生产保持扩张，新动能发展态势较好，经济运行趋稳具备一定基础。
“下半年我国经济运行仍然具有稳定基础。”文韬说，一方面，上半年经济向好态势继续发展，装备制造业、高技术产业和消费品行业等都保持平稳增长态势；另一方面，政策逆周期调节力度加大，减税降费、稳投资、稳金融等一系列政策效果将继续显现，对调结构、优效率、促增长等具有较强支撑作用。
张立群表示，当前制造业新订单、新出口订单指数继续下降，购进价格和出厂价格指数较大幅度下降，反映市场需求不足问题仍在发展；采购量、进口、生产经营活动预期指数继续下降，表明企业信心不足问题仍比较突出。综合研判，因市场需求不足导致的经济下行态势比较明显。因此，当前仍需加大宏观政策逆周期调节力度，多措并举着力扩大内需，尽快缓解经济下行压力。
中国物流信息中心专家武威表示，下半年，随着稳投资、稳消费以及减税降费等一系列政策效果逐步释放，非制造业有望继续保持稳中有升的发展态势。
Information source: Chinese government website
He Yang/Organizing
